Iran International
As the war enters its fifth week, tensions between Tehran and Washington are rising, with both sides sending mixed signals over diplomacy and the risk of further escalation.
At the diplomatic level, reports suggest indirect contacts are continuing, even as the gap between public rhetoric and behind-the-scenes diplomacy appears wider than ever.
In Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as a key voice. Reportedly playing a leading role in managing indirect contacts with Washington, he has maintained a consistently hard line.
In a four-page message issued on March 29 to mark the 30th day of the war, he dismissed recent US diplomatic messaging, including reports of a 15-point proposal, as unrealistic. He said Washington was trying “to achieve through talks what it could not win on the battlefield.”
Ghalibaf accused the United States of duplicity, saying Washington was publicly speaking of negotiations while privately preparing for escalation. He warned that Iranian forces were ready to inflict heavy losses on any US troops attempting a ground operation, as well as on their regional allies.
He also argued that US and Israeli objectives had already been scaled back. According to him, their objectives had shifted “from regime change to merely securing the Strait of Hormuz,” and disruptions to shipping had forced Iran’s adversaries to “beg” for talks.
Iranian military officials echoed the same defiant tone. A military spokesperson said on Sunday that Iranian forces had long awaited a possible US ground operation and warned Donald Trump not to “drag his soldiers into the jaws of captivity and death and not to plunge the American people into widespread mourning.”
Senior political figures reinforced the same line. First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref said negotiations over key issues such as the Strait of Hormuz would be possible only if Iran’s adversaries “pledge not to invade and recognize Iran’s international rights.”
On social media, pro-government users in Iran also largely rejected the idea of compromise. One post on X said: “There continues to be no form of negotiation or message exchange between Iran and America… Iran's decision is to continue the war until the complete achievement of objectives.”
Washington: Optimism and threats
By contrast, Washington has projected a mix of cautious optimism and mounting threats.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that indirect contacts with Iranian figures were continuing through intermediaries.
He said some figures within Iran’s leadership were “saying some of the right things privately,” but added that it was still unclear whether they had the authority to act.
Trump, however, has struck a much more aggressive tone. While insisting that talks are going “extremely well,” he has repeatedly threatened military action, including strikes on critical infrastructure.
In a post on Truth Social on Monday, he wrote: “If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached… we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island.”
He also suggested the United States could maintain a presence there, adding to the pressure behind his warnings.
Claims and counterclaims
Trump has also said that Iran recently allowed 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz “as a tribute” to the United States.
He said the permit was granted under the authority of Ghalibaf, whom he portrayed as playing an increasingly influential role within Iran’s power structure.
Iranian officials have not publicly confirmed the claim.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he was dealing with a “very reasonable” new group in Iran and suggested an agreement could be near. He also claimed Tehran had already accepted “most of the points” in his proposed framework.
Last week, Elias Hazrati, head of Iran’s government information council, dismissed reports of a US peace proposal as “media speculations” and a “wish list.”
Information warfare and market signals
Beyond the military and diplomatic rhetoric, both sides appear to be engaged in a parallel battle over information and perception.
In a widely shared English-language post, Ghalibaf accused Trump of trying to move financial markets through strategic messaging. He advised observers to treat such statements as reverse signals, writing: “Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.”
The post, which drew around 10 million views by Monday, showed Tehran’s awareness of what it sees as US information warfare aimed at influencing market volatility.
Online reactions reflected the same view. One Iranian user commented: “They’re playing mind games with the American public to crash the market. And honestly, they’re playing it well. Extremely, extremely well.”
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.