Gold, hoarding, fear: War fever deepens Iran’s economic anxiety

No assets appear directly in Mojtaba's name, but he has been actively involved in deals dating to at least 2011, according to Western intelligence assessments, insider accounts, real estate records, and confidential documents reviewed by Bloomberg.

The portfolio includes luxury London properties exceeding $138 million (one bought for $46.5 million in 2014), a villa in an elite Dubai district, and upscale hotels in Frankfurt and Mallorca.

Funding, largely from Iranian oil sales, moved through British, Swiss, Liechtenstein, and UAE banks via shell companies such as Ziba Leisure Ltd., Birch Ventures Ltd., and Emirati entities, as tracked by the report.

Iranian banker Ali Ansari, sanctioned by the UK in October, features as owner or director in many transactions. Ansari denies any connection to Mojtaba and plans to challenge the sanctions, the report said.

The sanctions on Ansari were imposed for allegedly financing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards and building a European property portfolio worth about €400 million, according to a Financial Times investigation based on corporate filings.

The Financial Times reported that the assets include luxury properties across several European countries, ranging from a golf resort in Mallorca to a ski hotel in Austria.

Iran’s US- based former ambassador to Germany Hossein Mousavian said that the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian should invite Trump to Tehran as a step toward de-escalating tensions which could crescendo into an attack that threatens the Islamic Republic’s rule.

“Trump genuinely wants direct talks with Iran,” he told outlet Ensaf News in an interview.

“Pick up the phone and speak to him. Do not waste time as the situation is critically dangerous … I repeat: if you do not act immediately, Iran may face military confrontation with the United States, Israel, and NATO.”

In a more sober assessment, Iranian political commentator Reza Nasri warned “unlike his predecessors, Trump can wage a swift and clean war against Iran without imposing additional costs on US taxpayers or repeating past mistakes.”

Nasri warned against complacency about some Trump’s more conciliatory messaging, saying “any premature optimism about de-escalation can lead to dangerous miscalculations by lowering the state of alert and imposing heavy costs on Iran’s security.”

The US threat comes after Trump vowed to come to the defense of protestors before authorities unleashed one of the deadliest crackdowns on unrest in modern history, killing thousands.

Nasri, cleaving to the theocracy’s official discourse, described the demonstrations as “one of the most difficult and complex threats in Iran’s recent history and a project aimed at disintegrating the country and collapsing its political system.”

“This project has failed for now,” he added. “But a combination of domestic crisis, foreign threats and economic and psychological warfare still looms.”

Meanwhile, hardline Tehran commentator and social media personality Ali-Akbar Raefipour raised the alarm to an even louder pitch, saying without providing evidence that foreign preparations for a complex armed attack were already underway.

“Mutiny and targeted assassination cells may be activated if Iran is attacked. Their goals include killing prominent individuals and seizing sensitive centers,” he wrote on X.

“In recent days, we have seen equipment flowing into Iran for these groups.”

Signs of reconnection were also observed on Sunday, they said, but restrictions were reimposed shortly afterward. The latest restoration appears broader but still falls well short of a full return to normal service.

NetBlocks, the internet freedom watchdog, reported that although Iran has restored some international connectivity, most websites remain blocked or unreliable unless users rely on circumvention tools like VPNs.

Most ordinary users still face heavy filtering and intermittent service under a whitelist system despite a significant increase in internationally visible networks and datacenters, NetBlocks said in a statement on X.

Whitelist refers to state-sanctioned access for officials or state bodies like banks. Iran's foreign minister and other senior officials have posted statements on social media throughout the shutdown.

Iranian authorities have said the internet outage which began on January 8 was imposed to control recent unrest, which officials blame on foreign interference and the activities of what they call “terrorists.”

The crackdown killed thousands of people and appears to rank among the deadliest attack on protestors in modern history.

Ali Akbar Pour-Jamshidian, deputy for security affairs at the Interior Ministry, addressed questions about when internet access would fully normalize by saying the Supreme National Security Council and the National Security Council had prioritized “public security” over economic considerations.

An uncertain digital future

Many data centers still lack stable internet access, and officials have yet to outline a clear timetable or framework for restoring full connectivity.

Milad Nouri, a programmer and internet expert, warned in comments to the news site Entekhab that the situation signals a deeper shift in network infrastructure. He said it shows the system has moved toward enabling permanent whitelist policies and “tiered internet” not just as a policy choice, but as a technical reality.

Tiered internet refers to granting access based on assessed “needs,” such as allowing media outlets controlled access to platforms like Telegram, while most other traffic remains blocked by default.

Economic damage mounts

The prolonged internet shutdown has inflicted significant damage on Iran’s economy.

Communications Minister Sattar Hashemi has estimated the economic cost of the shutdown at 50 trillion rials per day (roughly $50 million at open market rates).

Speaking on Tuesday, Hashemi acknowledged that domestic platforms cannot function independently of international connectivity and would face serious challenges over time.

“(Claiming) that there is no need for the global internet is only a bitter joke,” he said.

At the same time, Iran’s broader economic indicators have continued to deteriorate. As fears of a possible US or Israeli attack intensified, the national currency fell further, reaching a record low of 1,600,000 rials to the dollar on Wednesday.

The Statistical Center of Iran has announced that point-to-point inflation in January reached 60 percent, meaning households paid on average 60 percent more than a year earlier for an identical basket of goods and services. The Tehran Stock Exchange has also seen several consecutive days of declining share values.

Businesses under strain

Many companies are reportedly facing bankruptcy, while others have laid off employees or downsized operations.

The daily newspaper Haft-e Sobh has reported that newspapers are now filled with advertisements offering office desks and chairs for sale by recently shuttered companies.

Babak Aghili-Nasab, CEO of Postex, told the Digiato news outlet that his company’s order shipments dropped by 80 percent during the shutdown. He said the first and most immediate impact was forced layoffs, adding that he expects to lay off around 60 percent of his workforce starting this month.

While the government has said it will offer loans to compensate affected businesses, Aghili-Nasab rejected this approach, insisting that compensation should be provided as direct grants rather than debt. He said: “You have plundered our house and want to give us loans (to compensate)?”

International trade has also been disrupted. Companies have lost contact with foreign partners and customers, and some trucks carrying perishable goods into Iran have reportedly been stranded at border crossings.

Authorities recently provided limited international internet access at Iran’s Chamber of Commerce. long queues for supervised 20-minute sessions, after filling out written commitments.

For small and home-based businesses, especially those dependent on social commerce—which accounted for about 40 percent of Iran’s online retail sector last year—the outlook remains bleak.

Many have resumed activity after a month without sales, but say they have little hope of meaningful income under current conditions.

Seyrafi was detained on January 26 outside his home in Tehran, they said. Authorities have not issued any statement on his arrest.

An informed source told Iran International he has been accused of cooperating with Israel's foreign intelligence agency Mossad.

Seyrafi had previously been imprisoned on national security-related charges and was released in October 2020 after serving seven years in prison.

Iran’s judiciary had accused him of spying for the United States and “collaboration with a hostile government,” charges frequently used against political detainees, activists and individuals working in sensitive fields like IT.

Human rights organizations have identified Seyrafi as one of dozens of prisoners previously held in Ward 7 of Tehran’s Evin Prison, where detainees facing national security accusations are commonly imprisoned.

A 2019 report by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) listed Seyrafi among prisoners charged under Iran’s penal code provisions related to espionage and alleged ties to “enemy states.”

But Seyrafi has also been referenced in international cybersecurity research examining Iran’s early hacker networks.

A report published in 2013 by the ICT Cyber Desk at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya in Israel identified Seyrafi — also known online as “Iman” or “iM4n” — as the first leader of a hacker group known as the “Emperor Team.”

The report credited him with involvement in the defacement of websites and subdomains belonging to major international platforms, including MSN and Yahoo.

Seyrafi and other members, it added, initially formed the group to gather information before later shifting into what he described in past interviews as “security activities,” including the development of basic cyber tools.

Some of the assertions cited in the report could not be independently verified.

Seyrafi’s rearrest comes amid increasing concern from rights advocates that Iranian authorities are treating digital expertise itself as a national security threat.

The cell carried out reconnaissance around the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey and used commercial activity as cover, the paper said.

Investigators said the network was directed by Iranian intelligence officers Najaf Rostami, known as “Haji,” and Mahdi Yekeh Dehghan, referred to as “Doctor,” according to Daily Sabah.

The investigation found that one of the suspects, Iranian national Ashkan Jalali, based in Ankara, planned the transfer of armed unmanned aerial vehicles from Turkey to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Greek Cypriot administration through companies he owned, Bulaq Robotics and Arete Industries, it said.

Jalali and another suspect, Alican Koç, attended specialized drone training sessions in Iran in August and September 2025, according to the report.

Police detained defense industry company owners Erhan Ergelen and Taner Özcan, textile businessperson Cemal Beyaz, Remzi Beyaz, Koç and Jalali in Istanbul-centered raids. An Istanbul court later arrested all six on charges of “obtaining confidential state information for political or military espionage,” Daily Sabah said.

The paper said Ergelen and Özcan traveled to Iran in October 2025 and played roles in drone shipment plans to Greek Cyprus. In testimony, Remzi Beyaz said he was offered money to take part in assassination plots targeting Iranian dissidents.

The network used encrypted messaging under the code name “Güvercin” and financed its activities by disguising operations as commercial drone trade, the paper added.