Iran, US say they prefer diplomacy but are ready for combat

Trump said on Sunday that Iranian officials had reached out seeking talks on a nuclear deal and said the United States may meet with them after repeatedly warning Tehran against killing demonstrators and mooting "very strong" military options.

Former British Army officer and military analyst Andrew Fox told Iran International that the Islamic Republic is deliberately applying maximum force early to crush the protests before Washington can act decisively.

“If (Trump) limits his intervention to just rhetoric, then clearly that is, of course, strategic restraint, but also an absolute betrayal at a critical moment,” Fox said.

“He’s made promises. It’s very clear that there were promises that the Americans were not ready to deliver.”

Trump, in a post on Truth Social last week, warned that the United States is “locked and loaded” and ready to intervene in Iran if authorities violently suppress demonstrators — statements that analysts say emboldened many to take to the streets.

“It’s questionable that this many people would have protested had Mr. Trump not made those promises,” Fox said. “So at the moment,” he added, “America potentially has blood on its hands quite frankly.”

Publicly, Iranian officials struck a defiant tone. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was open to negotiations but also “fully prepared for war,” insisting the situation inside the country was under control.

Behind the scenes, however, US officials say Tehran is sending a different message.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said an Iranian official had reached out to US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff “expressing a far different tone than what you’re seeing publicly.”

Axios earlier reported a phone call between Araghchi and Witkoff during which the two sides discussed both the protests and Iran’s nuclear program.

On the ground, the crackdown has intensified amid a near-total internet shutdown.

Medics and eyewitnesses told Iran International that the preliminary death toll over more than two weeks of unrest had surged in recent days to as many as 2,000 people.

The full scale remains impossible to verify due to communications blackouts.

New evidence suggests the state response is being conducted as a wartime operation.

A physician who treated large numbers of wounded protesters described mass-casualty conditions, overwhelmed hospitals, and the use of live ammunition and military-grade weapons by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij forces according to the Center for Human Rights in Iran.

The doctor said security forces operated under orders that eliminated accountability and treated civilian protests as a battlefield scenario, with injured protesters systematically identified inside hospitals and communications deliberately shut down.

To intervene or not?

Trump’s own mixed messaging, analysts say, risks compounding the damage.

“President Trump’s comments on Air Force One contained something for everyone in them,” said Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), pointing to the combination of military threats, diplomacy with Tehran and outreach to the opposition.

While unpredictability can have tactical benefits, Brodsky warned that a US meeting with Iran’s leadership now “will provide relief for the regime.”

“It can prop-up the currency while demoralizing the Iranian freedom fighters on the ground,” he said. “There is great benefit for Iran in a negotiating process with the US. But no benefit for the US.”

Such talks, Brodsky said, would be “perceived by the Iranian people as external American intervention on the side of the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people.”

“We should be giving time, space, and resources to the Iranian people,” he said, “not the Islamic Republic.”

Confidence that US military action was imminent has meanwhile begun to waver.

“Do I believe President Trump will strike Iran? Yesterday I was more confident of an attack, today, not quite as much,” said Dr. Eric Mandel, director of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN).

Mandel said he had spoken with Israeli analysts saying they were confident Trump would strike but “did not know sooner or later.”

He said Washington still retains options short of a full-scale war, including seizing oil tankers tied to Iran’s shadow fleet exporting more than two million barrels of oil a day, CIA covert actions, cyber operations, kinetic action against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij and restoring communications through satellite internet systems such as Starlink.

Trump said Sunday he would speak to Elon Musk about restoring internet access in Iran.

As the death toll rises and Iran remains largely cut off from the outside world, analysts warn the moment for measures is rapidly disappearing.

What comes next, they say, will determine not only the fate of Iran’s uprising — but whether US warnings are remembered as deterrence or as words that raised hope just long enough to deepen a sense of betrayal.

Informed sources told Iran International that security forces in parts of Tehran started door-to-door operations on Monday, removing satellite dishes and confiscating recordings from private CCTV cameras.

These actions are taking place amid a complete internet blackout and severe disruption to phone networks nationwide that started on January 8, leaving satellite channels as almost the only source of updates.

Agents posed as water and electricity officials to enter homes and seize satellite dishes, residents told Iran International.

Iran has entered its fifth day of a nationwide internet shutdown. NetBlocks said the blackout had reached 100 hours on Monday evening local time.

The loss of internet and phone access has left families inside and outside Iran increasingly cut off from one another. Many people have been unable to contact loved ones, heightening public anxiety and fear, according to messages sent to Iran International.

Protesters disable CCTV cameras

Despite the restrictions, limited footage that has reached the outside world shows protests continuing in several cities.

Videos sent to Iran International show protesters disabling CCTV cameras in Karaj, Alborz province; Mahallat, Markazi province; and Pakdasht, Tehran province.

One video from Karaj, shows a protester disabling a CCTV camera amid a crowd.

Other footage from Mahallat, in central Iran’s Markazi province, shows protesters lighting fires in the street and taking surveillance cameras offline.

A separate video from the funeral of Khodadad Shirvani, a protester killed in Marvdasht, Fars province, shows a mourner disabling a security camera as the crowd chants slogans against the government.

In another video from Pakdasht, southeast of Tehran, a resident says: “Out of fear of the people, they are installing cameras again.”

Videos received by Iran International showed protests in Tehran, including the Punak neighborhood, and in Shahsavar in Mazandaran province on Sunday.

Videos from Tehran’s Kahrizak forensic center showed rows of bodies, while doctors in Rasht and Karaj said hospitals received dozens of dead in recent days. Independent verification has been hampered by the communications blackout.

Two eyewitnesses who visited Kahrizak in search of their loved ones told Iran International that they saw more than 400 bodies there. The most conservative estimates indicate that at least 2,000 people have been killed across Iran on January 8 and 9.

Internet monitoring groups NetBlocks and Cloudflare said nationwide connectivity remained near zero for a fourth day, isolating the country as protests resumed in Tehran and provincial cities, according to videos and eyewitness accounts sent to Iran International.

International reactions intensified. The UN secretary-general said he was “shocked” by reports of excessive force and urged restraint. European officials voiced concern, while Israel said it had gone on high alert amid the possibility of US intervention.

US President Donald Trump is set to be briefed on Tuesday on options to respond to the situation, the Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported, citing US officials. Axios said measures under discussion range from cyber and information operations to military deterrence, though officials cautioned that major strikes could backfire by undermining the protest movement.

Another report by Jerusalem Post said Trump is expected to assist Iranians protesting nationwide against Iran’s ruling establishment, The Jerusalem Post reported, citing several sources familiar with the details of the discussions held in recent days

“Trump has essentially decided to help the protesters in Iran. What he has not yet decided is the ‘how’ and the ‘when,’” the sources said, according to the report published on Sunday.

Iran’s leadership accused foreign enemies of fomenting unrest and warned that any US or Israeli attack would draw retaliation.

Overseas rallies by Iranians were reported across Europe, the UK, Turkey and Australia, as exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi called for sustained protests and strikes.

Demonstrations have spread across major cities and provinces despite a nationwide internet and phone blackout, with rights groups reporting at least 42 people killed and more than 2,000 arrested since unrest began.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Friday accused foreign powers of fueling the protests and warned demonstrators of severe punishment, as security forces fired live ammunition in several regions.

Tom Tugendhat, a British MP and former UK security minister, told Eye for Iran the moment reflects a system confronting its own limits.

“I think this is the end game for the regime,” Tugendhat said.

“What we’re watching is not whether or not the regime survives, but how many people does it try to kill?” he added.

His remarks came as Iranian prosecutors threatened protesters with charges carrying the death penalty, and the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence arm warned that the continuation of protests was “unacceptable.”

Western officials reassess as fear appears to erode

Early this week, US intelligence assessed that the protests lacked the momentum to threaten regime stability, US officials told Axios, but that assessment is now being reconsidered in light of recent developments.

“This is truly an extraordinary moment,” said Norman Roule, a former senior CIA official, who served as the national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from 2008 to 2017.

“We are watching a regime that is clearly in its dying days,” Roule said.

Roule said the leadership’s response shows narrowing options.

“It’s a government that can sustain itself, but it’s incapable of decisions that can stop this,” he said.

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran’s authorities against killing demonstrators, praising Iranians as “brave people” and signaling consequences if repression escalates. European officials and the UN human rights chief have also condemned the crackdown and the communications blackout.

Policy analysts say the current unrest is not an isolated episode but part of a longer erosion of regime authority.

“The Iranian people have the singular ability to expose the regime for its illegitimacy,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran.

“Since 2017 onwards, the Iranian people have come to the conclusion that the Islamic Republic can’t be reformed and therefore has to be overthrown,” Brodsky said.

Journalist and author of Nuclear Iran David Patrikarakos said the protests differ fundamentally from earlier waves that focused on specific demands.

“These aren’t issue-based protests anymore. These are existential,” Patrikarakos said.

He said the leadership now faces a dangerous calculation. “If the Ayatollahs are tempted to think he’s bluffing, they should take a look at the ruins of their nuclear facilities,” he said, referring to recent US and Israeli strikes.

Protesters defy repression as blackout deepens

Verified videos circulating on social media show protesters confronting security forces in Tehran, Mashhad, Zahedan and other cities, even as authorities cut communications and deploy live fire.

One widely shared video shows a wounded protester declaring: “I’m not scared. For 47 years, I’ve been dead.”

The demonstrations have drawn participation across Iran’s political, ethnic and religious spectrum. Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi praised the nationwide turnout and urged coordinated nightly protests, while Sunni cleric Molavi Abdolhamid warned of deepening poverty and backed the demonstrations.

International pressure has continued to build. The UN human rights chief said he was “deeply disturbed” by reports of killings and internet shutdowns, while EU officials accused Tehran of using blackouts to conceal violence.

Despite uncertainty over how events will unfold, guests on Eye for Iran converged on a central conclusion: the Islamic Republic is confronting a crisis in which repression remains its primary instrument, even as its effectiveness appears increasingly uncertain.

You can watch Episode 85 of Eye for Iran on YouTube or Listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.

“Trump should know that world tyrants such as Pharaoh, Nimrod, Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza were brought down at the peak of their arrogance. He too will be brought down,” Khamenei said in remarks aired on state television.

He said the Islamic Republic would not retreat in the face of unrest. “Everyone should know that the Islamic Republic came to power with the blood of hundreds of thousands of honorable people, and it will not back down in the face of saboteurs,” he said.

Referring to protests in the country, Khamenei accused demonstrators of acting to please the US president. “They want to make him happy. If he knew how to run a country, he would run his own,” he said, adding that there were many problems inside the United States.

Referring to the June attacks, Khamenei said: “In the 12-day war, more than a thousand of our compatriots were martyred.” He added that the US president had said, “I gave the order and I commanded the attack,” and said this amounted to an admission that “his hands are stained with the blood of Iranians.”

Khamenei urged supporters to remain united. “Dear young people, keep your readiness and your unity. A united nation will overcome any enemy,” he said.