Iran challenge persists despite Trump's triumph call, analyst says

The 2015 nuclear deal set out a mechanism allowing UN sanctions to be reimposed within 30 days if Iran was accused of breaching its commitments.

That window closes at 8:00 p.m. Washington time on September 27. Yet even at this late hour, officials speak of talks more than they conduct them.

The US and Europe have made demands Tehran cannot meet in the wake of the 12-Day War: cooperation with the IAEA, clarifying the fate of 60%-enriched uranium, curbing the missile program, and striking a deal with Washington.

Tehran, meanwhile, signals readiness for “fair” talks but chiefly to show it did not slam the door.

Packages of blame

Western capitals have pursued “diplomacy backed by threats” since talks resurfaced in early 2025, and the war did not alter that approach.

Their demands serve less to reach agreement than to build the narrative: “We gave Iran a chance; it refused.”

Washington’s posture has been no more conciliatory. US envoy Steve Witkoff spoke of willingness to engage as late as Wednesday, but both Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref and Reuters reported Tehran’s messages have gone unanswered.

Tehran’s signals point the same way.

Officials from the Supreme Leader to Ali Larijani stress that negotiations must be “fair” and free of threats—framing the Islamic Republic’s line as: “We tried, they refused.”

This is less about diplomacy than about managing domestic opinion, with rival factions poised to pin the blame on one another once snapback hits.

Moscow and Beijing’s pause

In the stalemate, Russia and China floated a six-month delay at the Security Council—but few ever expected it to pass.

The point was never to resolve the crisis but to buy time, cast the West as obstructionist, and tether Tehran more tightly once sanctions return.

It may also be viewed as geopolitical gamesmanship: draining US and European bandwidth in the region.

Had Moscow and Beijing sought a solution, they could have mediated far earlier.

Where the failure bomb lands

The sanctions are now all but certain to proceed.

The war has left Tehran unable to concede, the West will not soften its conditions, and Russia and China are content with delay.

What remains is not crisis-solving but narrative-shaping: deciding where the bomb of failure lands.

For the US and Europe, the message is: “Iran squandered its chance.” For Tehran: “We negotiated, they refused.” For Russia and China: “We offered diplomacy, the West rejected it.”

As a senior European diplomat told Al-Monitor this week: “The negotiations have failed, and snapback will occur.”

It was a verdict on talks but also the opening line of the autopsy of a lost decade since the deal in 2015.

The resolution aimed to extend sanctions relief under Security Council Resolution 2231 for six months to allow further diplomacy.

Russia, China, Algeria, and Pakistan voted in favor, while the United States, Britain, France, and five other members opposed it. Guyana and South Korea abstained.

Dorothy Shea, Acting US Representative to the UN advised Russia and China to ask Iran for full cooperation instead of postponing the sanctions.

“They must press leaders in Tehran to take meaningful immediate steps to fulfill its commitments and obligations, including by fully cooperating with the IAEA,” Shea said.

British ambassador to the UN Barbara Woodward told the Security Council the doors to diplomacy are not yet closed.

"The United Kingdom remains committed to pursuing a diplomatic solution that ensures Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, while maintaining Iran's right to a civil nuclear program in line with the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty."

Russia's representative at the meeting said Moscow "had hoped that the US, that European colleagues in the US, would think twice and that they would opt for the path of diplomacy and dialog instead of their clumsy blackmail, which merely results in escalation of the situation in the region."

However, the envoy said, "what did we see instead, in the 29 days that have elapsed since then, was the very same typical scenario for Europeans of pressure."

Iran had already warned if the UN sanctions reinstated, it will halt cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA).

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told the UN Security Council that "Iran put forward several constructive proposals in New York to avert an unnecessary and avoidable crisis, all were ignored."

"I have to remind the distinguished representative of France that two nights ago, I agreed with your foreign minister a framework agreement, but he was not able to get the agreement of the United States," Araghchi said.

Following the Security Council meeting, Araghchi told Iran International that the reimposition of UN sanctions could jeopardize Tehran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

The snapback mechanism was triggered on August 28 by France, Germany, and the UK (E3), citing Iran's "significant non-performance,” including enriched uranium stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits and restricted IAEA access to facilities like Natanz and Fordow.

With UN sanctions on Iran set to be reinstated on September 28, Tehran will halt cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Larijani warned.

“We have pursued every option and mechanism available to resolve this conflict peacefully,” he said in an interview with PBS’s Frontline, recorded on September 22 and partially aired Friday.

Larijani warned US President Donald Trump against new attacks, saying Iran will never surrender.

Asked about damage to bombed nuclear sites, Larijani declined to provide details: “We haven't abandoned any of those locations. They could continue operating as they are or be shut down in the future.”

‘Know-how can’t be taken away’

Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran in June, targeting nuclear and military sites as well as key officials. Iran retaliated with drones and ballistic missiles.

On June 22, the United States joined the campaign, striking nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel was established on June 24.

Iran’s national security chief dismissed assertions that the country’s nuclear capabilities had been destroyed.

“Iran's nuclear program cannot be destroyed. Once a technology is discovered, it can't be taken away. It's like inventing a machine that gets stolen—you can still rebuild it,” Larijani said.

‘Unreasonable terms’

Any talks about curbing Tehran’s missile program are a non-starter, Larijani said.

“The Americans insist we negotiate specifically about Iran's missiles. They’ve demanded no enrichment at all, or missile ranges below 300 kilometers (185 miles), now 500 kilometers (310 miles) — essentially stripping us of key defensive and offensive capabilities.”

US president Donald Trump told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that he had offered full cooperation in exchange for Iran suspending its nuclear program, but said his letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was met with threats.

Larijani said the Islamic Republic is open to dialogue but will reject what he called “unreasonable” terms.

Iran and European powers held last-ditch talks in New York on Tuesday to try to prevent the revival of UN sanctions on Tehran, though diplomats on both sides cautioned that chances of success remain slim.

Last week, a UN Security Council resolution on whether to permanently lift UN sanctions on Iran was voted down.

All UN sanctions on Iran will be reimposed at 8PM Eastern time on Friday (0000 GMT Saturday) after the E3 — Germany, France and Britain — triggered a 30-day process accusing Tehran of violating the 2015 nuclear deal aimed at preventing it from developing nuclear weapons.

The E3 have offered to delay deadline by six months if Tehran agrees to resume talks with Washington and cooperate with UN nuclear watchdog.

French President Emmanuel Macron said he pressed his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian on the E3’s three non-negotiable demands during their meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Wednesday.

The demands, he said, include full access for International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in Iran, transparency on enriched uranium stockpiles and the immediate resumption of negotiations.

Pezeshkian said a "definitive solution" was possible after talks with the French president. But on Thursday, he warned that Iran is fully prepared to face any scenario and would adjust its policies if UN sanctions are reinstated.

UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric told Iran International on Thursday that the window for diplomacy was still open.

"I think it is important that the Islamic Republic as well as the Europeans and the US seize the moments, the few days or hours that are left to try to work for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue," he said.

Earlier this week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority on Iranian policy, ruled out talks with the United States, saying they would lead to a “dead end.”

Speaking in a televised interview, Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Washington has demanded Iran halt all uranium enrichment and curb its missile program.

“The Americans insist we must negotiate, specifically about Iran’s missiles,” Larijani said. “They came and said you shouldn’t have any enrichment at all … They said no missiles, sometimes below 300 kilometers (185 miles), now below 500 kilometers (310 miles)—meaning they want to strip us of key defensive and offensive capabilities.”

For years, Iran has voluntarily capped its missile range at 2,000 kilometers, which it says is sufficient to reach its main regional adversary, Israel.

France, Britain and Germany triggered the resumption of UN sanctions against Iran last month through the “snapback” mechanism of a 2015 nuclear deal, accusing Tehran of not conforming to nuclear obligations outlined in the agreement.

The measures are scheduled to take effect September 28. Larijani dismissed their impact, arguing that US sanctions remain far harsher.

“Some politicians in Iran ask why we don’t resolve this sooner. We’re trying to resolve it; we don’t want unnecessary pressure on the country. But is there any politician in Iran who would agree to cut our missile range below 500 kilometers?” he asked.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Tuesday rejected talks with Washington, calling US President Donald Trump’s demand that Iran end domestic uranium enrichment an “insult” that had earned him a “slap in the face” from the Iranian people.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, addressing the UN General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, denounced Israeli raids on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June as illegal and condemned European powers for reimposing UN sanctions.

Bad terms

Larijani said that Iran is open to dialogue but unwilling to accept terms he called “illogical.”

“The issue is they want us to negotiate. Negotiate, fine—has anyone said don’t negotiate? But if the endgame is already decided, no sensible person will accept it. We’ve tried all paths, but if they insist on these illogical demands, we must stand firm.”

Israel launched a surprise military campaign on June 13, striking military and nuclear sites in Iran. Air raids killed nuclear scientists along with hundreds of military personnel and civilians. Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks that killed 31 Israeli civilians and one off-duty soldier.

The United States entered the conflict on June 22, bombing major nuclear facilities including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, before brokering a ceasefire on June 24.

Washington said the strikes set back Iran’s nuclear program by years, though the International Atomic Energy Agency has yet to verify the damage due to lack of access.