Washington is not capable of launching another military conflict against Iran and is constrained by the risks of soaring energy prices, a senior cleric in the Office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Friday.
“Today, there is talk about the possible resumption of a military war, but it seems the enemy does not have the capability to attack again and fears Iran’s power. The Americans also fear the prospect of $150 oil and cannot endure such a situation,” said Ali Saidi.
“While evidence shows no immediate threat, the armed forces must remain on alert and strengthen their communications.”
A day before, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, suggested dialogue with the United States could be possible, provided it is directed toward a genuine resolution.
“If the United States realizes it cannot defeat the Islamic Republic through war and then seeks negotiations, we will respond positively. But if they negotiate to prepare for the next war, it will be of no benefit to us,” he told Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen.
France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have separately warned Iran they will reinstate UN sanctions unless Tehran reopens nuclear talks and produces tangible results by the end of August.
Earlier negotiations under the Trump administration collapsed when Israel launched military strikes on June 13, one day after a 60-day ultimatum expired. On the ninth day of the conflict, the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, which US President Donald Trump said had “obliterated” the program.
On June 22, the United States joined Israel’s campaign against Iran and carried out airstrikes on its key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
"President Trump said the [Iranian] nuclear program is obliterated. They seem to have put it in the ‘mission accomplished’ category,” Eyre told Iran International's podcast, Eye for Iran.
Under Obama, Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman worked closely with world powers to keep the 2015 nuclear deal alive, balancing many interests through complex diplomacy — a sharp contrast to today’s one-track coordination with Israel, Eyre said.
"There’s pretty much one person in the foreign affairs who he is coordinating with, and that’s Prime Minister Netanyahu," Eyre said, "The gentleman in charge, Mr. Witkoff, has a lot of other stuff on his plate to include Gaza and Ukraine. We’re really not paying any attention to the Iran portfolio. We have sort of outsourced it to Israel.”
Signals of a renewed fight
Tehran’s decision to revive its Supreme Defense Council — a wartime command body not convened since the Iran–Iraq War — is widely seen as a signal it expects the ceasefire with Israel to be temporary.
The move suggests Iranian leaders are bracing for renewed conflict and working to reestablish what Eyre described as “some type of strategic deterrence,” from rebuilding air defenses to restoring missile and nuclear capabilities.
Tehran at a crossroads
Weakened by war and diplomatic deadlock, Iran’s clerical elite faces a stark choice: defy pressure to halt its nuclear activity and risk further Israeli and US attack or concede and risk a leadership fracture.
A fragile ceasefire ended the 12-day war in June. Both sides claimed victory, but the war exposed vulnerabilities and punctured Iran’s image of deterrence.
Three Iranian insiders told Reuters the political establishment now views nuclear negotiations with Washington as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril. The Israeli strikes began just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with the US.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Iran’s political leadership have agreed in principle to resume nuclear talks with Washington, seeing diplomacy as essential to preventing further US–Israeli strikes.
E3 Snapback Threat Adds Pressure
Britain, France, and Germany have warned they are prepared to trigger the UN’s “snapback” sanctions mechanism if Iran does not return to talks by the end of August.
Eyre said that even after the attacks, Iran retains the industrial capacity, enriched uranium, and technical knowledge to produce a nuclear weapon if it chooses.
“The fork in the road now is — does it try to reconstitute what it had before, or does it try something else… like moving toward a nuclear weapon?” he said.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon, or Castbox.
In an August 12 video, the Israeli prime minister cited President Masoud Pezeshkian’s own admission of deep crises to assert that Iranians don’t even have clean water to give to their children.
He pledged that once people toppled the Islamic Republic and Iran was “free,” Israeli water experts would go to “every city” with desalination and recycling technology.
Reactions: from praise to scorn
Thousands of Iranians reacted on X and other platforms. Supporters called Israel “the true friend of the Iranian people” and urged others to heed Netanyahu’s call.
Others interpreted the message as a signal of another imminent Israeli strike.
“These consecutive messages from the Israelis … carry an important warning,” one user wrote. “The Iranian people are very close to a second round of attacks. It’s better for you to take to the streets so that the cost for both us and you will be lower.”
Some even urged further Israeli action.
“We still need your help. Target the remaining leaders of the regime so that overthrowing it becomes easier for the people,” read another comment.
But many doubted the call would have any effect.
“As someone in Tehran, I must say that there is no way people will take to the streets,” one user posted. “They have no hope, and what you’re saying is not feasible before Khamenei and [his son] Mojtaba are declared dead.”
Criticism of the messenger
Others went further, turning their fire on Netanyahu himself.
“Contrary to Netanyahu’s false claim, the water Israelis drink in abundance is not the product of Israeli technology; it is water denied to the Palestinians,” lawyer Reza Nasri posted.
Some referenced alleged Israeli strikes on water infrastructure during the 12-day conflict.
“Khomeini came with promises of free water and electricity and delivered rooftop executions,” activist Amir Ebrahimi wrote.
“Netanyahu talks of providing water, and the result of his promise was the bombing of the main Tajrish water pipeline and the killing of people. Criminal dictators and charlatans share the same principles.”
Officials and state media push back
Top political and security figures, including Pezeshkian, Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, dismissed or mocked the message.
State TV aired a vox-pop segment, mixing genuine and staged interviews, ridiculing Netanyahu’s claim that Iranians could water-ski again in the Karaj Dam if the Islamic Republic fell.
The dam, once a popular recreation site, is now almost dry.
‘Root cause’
Criticism also came from those outside the government, including activists who oppose Tehran’s rule but saw Netanyahu’s comments as misleading or self-serving.
These voices sought to shift the conversation from Israel’s role to Iran’s own governance failures.
“Netanyahu spoke of desalination… these plants were built entirely by Iranian private companies,” environmental activist Reza Karimi wrote on X alongside images of two desalination plants in southern Iran.
“Our problem with water is not technology. We are exporters of water engineering projects. Our problem is poor water governance.”
On the fourth day of the Israeli 12-day war on Iran, the SNSC meeting attended by the heads of Iran’s three branches of power was hit by six bombs or missiles. Iranian state media later reported that President Pezeshkian and some other officials sustained minor leg injuries when trying to flee.
“I immediately ran out of the meeting and saw Pezeshkian walking about four meters away. He was on his feet, with a slight injury to his leg,” Mohsen Haji-Mirzaei, chief of staff to the Iranian president, said in an interview aired by the state TV on Friday.
He said that despite his injured leg, President Pezeshkian took a shower that day and met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The next day, he visited a doctor to drain a swollen hematoma from his leg.
“Israel had a calculated plan to kill Pezeshkian, but God did not will his death,” Haji-Mirzaei said.
Israel targeted the building’s entrances and exits with six missiles or bombs to block escape routes and cut off airflow, Revolutionary Guards affiliated Fars News reported last month.
“Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni had inhaled so much dust that he was struggling to breathe, and medics were helping him," Pezeshkian's chief of staff said.
“I saw General Mousavi (Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces) with his face and body covered in dust and his clothes torn,” Haji-Mirzaei added.
Israel launched a surprise military campaign on June 13 targeting military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and killing hundreds of civilians.
During the 12-day conflict, Israel killed more than 30 senior security officials and at least 11 senior nuclear scientists. According to an Iranian government spokesperson, 1,062 Iranians were killed, including 786 military personnel and 276 civilians.
Iran retaliated with missile strikes that killed 31 civilians and one off-duty soldier. On June 22, the United States joined the campaign by carrying out airstrikes on Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
A US-brokered ceasefire put an end to the conflict on June 24.
