State funeral for miniature maestro rekindles debate on art and power in Iran

“If tariffs are not adjusted, operators will not be able to invest, and improving internet quality will be impossible,” Alireza Rafiei said on Monday.

In the near future, he said, Iranians should expect scheduled internet outages just like the country's routine power cuts.

Iran’s internet crisis, marked by declining quality, frequent disruptions, and GPS interference, has persisted for two months since the 12-day war with Israel when blackouts rocked the country, affecting everything from tracing the whereabouts of loved ones to online banking and GPS services for businesses dependent on them.

Consumption has steadily increased while tariffs have remained frozen for years, even as electricity, equipment, and operational costs have multiplied, Rafiei added. Without higher rates, he argued, operators cannot invest in upgrades.

Iran ranks among the worst for connectivity

A report by the Internet and Infrastructure Commission of Tehran’s E-Commerce Association last week ranked Iran 97th out of 100 countries in terms of quality, describing the network as “unreliable, restricted and slow.”

Citizens across Iran have told Iran International of widespread issues, saying outages and slow speeds add to the pressure of power cuts, water shortages, inflation, and unemployment.

Government officials have blamed the June war with Israel for worsening connectivity. On July 15, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani linked new restrictions to security decisions taken during the conflict, while Communications Minister Sattar Hashemi acknowledged poor quality service earlier in August.

Interference was partly introduced after reports that GPS signals were being used to guide drones, he said.

However, the E-Commerce Association report said that disruptions had been recorded long before the conflict and remain unresolved even two months since its end.

Power cuts and GPS disruptions

Constant electricity blackouts make matters worse as operators cannot recharge backup systems in time, Rafiei said.

“The batteries we use, even in the best case, only work 45 minutes to one hour,” he explained. “With repeated outages, sometimes we don’t even get the chance to recharge them.”

If two hours of daily power cuts accumulate, it means “two percent of sites are permanently off, creating extraordinary dissatisfaction,” added Rafiei.

The crisis has been compounded by widespread GPS disruptions.

Since the war, users continue to report erratic location shifts of hundreds of kilometers, disrupting services such as ride-hailing apps and logistics businesses.

The Iranian government continues to promote its long-term national internet project, designed to tighten control over information flows.

The coalition of 27 reformist organizations, in a statement issued on Sunday, said “Iran’s social fabric was deeply wounded, with public life overshadowed by despair and anxiety.”

“The aftermath of the recent 12-day war with Israel, coupled with runaway inflation, industrial stagnation, the collapse of the national currency and capital flight, had created a more acute risk of economic paralysis than ever before.”

The statement urged the government to declare readiness for suspending enrichment and to accept full International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

Such a step, it said, could open the way for “comprehensive, direct negotiations with the United States and normalization of relations.”

It also called on all political forces committed to peaceful reform, inside and outside Iran, to unite around the national interest rather than what it described as “artificial and fruitless dividing lines.”

Reformist leaders echo warnings

Former president Hassan Rouhani and Green Movement leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi had already issued similar warnings.

Rouhani argued that easing tensions with the US was necessary and pressed for a new national strategy centered on development and Iran’s long-term strength.

“There is no way to save the country except for all of us to become servants of the people — to recognize that sovereignty belongs to the people,” moderate outlet Entekhab quoted Rouhani as saying on Thursday. “The Iranian nation owns Iran.”

“If we can improve relations with Europe, our neighbors, and both East and West—even reduce tensions with the United States—and it serves our interests, then why not?” he said. “Not only is there nothing wrong with it, it is our duty and obligation.”

Karroubi said that the ruling system’s policies, including the nuclear program, had driven the country to “the edge of the abyss” and urged a return to the people and structural reform.

'Snapback threat is real'

The Reform Front warned that European moves to trigger the UN’s snapback mechanism were credible and could restore Security Council sanctions, plunging Iran into an even deeper recession.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani both said last week that the Islamic Republic prefers the path of peace and is determined to block the Europeans' bid to reinstate the UN sanctions via the so-called snapback mechanism.

Britain, France and Germany told the UN on August 13 that unless Tehran returned to talks, they were prepared to invoke the measure by the end of the month.

An 11-point roadmap and hardline backlash

The reformist coalition outlined an 11-point roadmap for both domestic and foreign policy reforms. Chief among them were amnesty and pardons for political prisoners, lifting the house arrest of Green Movement Leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard, removing political restrictions on former president Mohammad Khatami, and ending the suppression of peaceful critics.

It further demanded restoring government authority by eliminating parallel institutions, returning the military to the barracks and curbing their economic and political role, and reducing the pervasive security lens applied to society.

On economic policy, the Reform Front demanded: “Taking the national economy out of the hands of ruling oligarchs, creating equal economic opportunities for all citizens, and providing a framework for both domestic and foreign investors.”

On foreign policy, the group advocated a pivot toward national reconciliation and regional cooperation, positioning reconciliation with neighbors as a basis for stability and sustainable peace.

Hardliner backlash

The statement provoked an angry backlash from hardline outlets. Kayhan daily, overseen by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, accused the Reform Front of aligning itself with Western powers.

“The text, substance, and content of the Reform Front’s statements are aligned, identical, and consistent with the interests of the Western front — namely the governments of Europe, the United States, and Israel,” wrote Kayhan.

“The unfinished plan of Israel and the United States to eliminate the Islamic system continues with the assistance and efforts of the Western-oriented front and the leaders of sedition in Iran; in such a way that Israel’s failure to achieve its goals during the 12-day war is being compensated through the activities of those claiming to be reformists.”

The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency echoed those criticisms, labeling the document a “charter of submission to foreign enemies.”

“Evidence and analysis show that the content of the statement repeats demands that directly align with the long-term goals of the United States and the Zionist regime, and this alignment could be a sign of ideological or operational dependence,” Fars added.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global demand in 2025 will grow by less than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), while supply is set to rise by 2.5 million bpd— leaving a surplus of more than 1.8 million bpd.

The imbalance will likely push prices down, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting Brent crude to average just $51 in 2026.

Already under heavy US sanctions and burdened by chronic budget deficits, Tehran now faces the prospect of falling oil prices and growing supply gluts.

Iran would need oil at roughly $164 per barrel to balance its budget this year and next, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

‘Little hope for growth’

Iran exported around 2.5 million bpd of crude and condensates before the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

That figure has dropped to about 1.6 million bpd in the first seven months of this year, based on Kpler data—nearly 90% bound for China.

Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at Kpler, told Iran International that even a lifting of sanctions would do little to improve Tehran’s export capacity.

“Falling reservoir pressure and surging domestic consumption mean any meaningful growth in exports is unlikely,” he said.

Iran’s domestic consumption has climbed by around 400,000 bpd since the return of US sanctions. Around 80% of output comes from aging fields that lose 5–8% annually, with little new capacity developed in recent years.

Deeper discounts, mounting debt

Iran’s reliance on small independent Chinese refiners, or “teapots,” leaves it vulnerable to price shifts.

These buyers already demand steep discounts, and the IEA projects global markets will face an additional surplus of 1.2 million bpd in 2026.

Such a glut—the deepest since the COVID-19 collapse—will make sanctioned oil harder to sell. Tehran is likely to be forced into offering even deeper discounts, further eroding revenues.

With crude still the backbone of government revenue, lower export earnings will aggravate Tehran’s fiscal crisis.

IMF data shows public debt has soared 85-fold since 2011, reaching $150 billion roughly—or 37% of Iran’s GDP.

The IMF projects debt will reach nearly 42% of GDP in 2026 and exceed 45% by 2030.

“In the current situation, the conditions for negotiations with the United States are not ready,” said Mehdi Tabatabaei, deputy for communications and information at the president’s office, in an interview with Iranian media.

“Today this possibility does not exist, but 40 days from now, when the president is in New York, the situation may be different. We live in a state of uncertainty,” he said, referring to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s upcoming visit for the UN General Assembly in late September.

Tabatabaei added that any decision on talks with Washington would not rest solely with the government and would require final approval from the Supreme Leader.

“The considerations of the Supreme National Security Council are always taken into account, but its resolutions only gain effect when approved by the Supreme Leader.”

He added that Iran’s president, who also heads the Supreme National Security Council, remains bound by the authority of Ali Khamenei.

“In the case of the president, there is complete alignment and obedience to the considerations, strategies and views of the Supreme Leader,” he said.

Asked whether there had been differences in the past, Tabatabaei said, “At one point, the president’s view was to negotiate, but the Supreme Leader was not in agreement. The president said that the Supreme Leader’s opinion comes first, even if it is against his own view. Later, when conditions changed, the decision for negotiations also changed, and the government implemented it.”

“If conditions remain as they are now, no, there will be no talks. But it is not possible to rule out changes by then,” he said.

Tabatabaei also rejected suggestions of division within the leadership over Iran’s foreign policy, saying, “The coordination that exists today between the branches of government and the Supreme Leader is extraordinary. This unity of view and trust helped the country overcome the recent aggression by the Zionist regime and the United States.”

According to a recent report by Reuters, Supreme Leader and the country’s power structure have reached a consensus to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States, viewing them as vital to the Islamic Republic’s survival.

Amid deteriorating ties with Europe and the looming threat of another war with Israel, Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian is under mounting attack from Tehran’s hardliners, who question both his competence and his political judgment.

Allegations of a “shadow government” meddling in Iran’s foreign policy have also reignited concerns about the country’s diplomatic direction, just as high-stakes nuclear talks with the West hang in the balance.

Leading ultraconservative cleric and MP Hamid Rasai, pushing for a parliamentary probe into the president’s performance, seized on Pezeshkian’s recent comments about the Zangezur corridor and his remark that Iran has no choice but to negotiate with the United States.

“Critics say raising the issue of Pezeshkian’s political inadequacy in the midst of two wars is against expediency!” he wrote on X on August 13.

“The session that led to the disqualification and ousting of Iran’s first president, Abolhassan Banisadr, was also held during the 1980s war with Iraq.”

Rasai, who believes another confrontation with Israel is imminent, argued that while Pezeshkian is “not a traitor like Banisadr,” he is “ignorant of his responsibilities” and equally damaging to the system. “If he doesn’t take the initiative himself,” Rasai added, “let’s not deceive ourselves.”

Some social media users urged Rasai to voice such criticisms in parliament rather than online, while others attacked his own legitimacy, noting he was elected with just 4% of the vote compared with the far higher turnouts of MPs who impeached Banisadr.

Moderates join the fray

Even figures from Iran’s moderate camp are voicing disillusionment.

Ali Mohammad Namazi told conservative outlet Nameh News that Pezeshkian had failed to deliver on his 2024 campaign pledge to lift sanctions, re-engage with the world, and revive the economy.

Namazi said the president’s promise to form an active government from across the political spectrum instead produced “a cabinet of mediocre ministers” with “no outstanding economic or political figures.”

He added that industrial activity had stalled under budget constraints, energy and water shortages, and a lack of investment — leaving households waiting for sanctions relief to meet basic needs.

“Pezeshkian’s most important political promise was to hold talks with the West to lift sanctions and boost oil revenues,” Namazi said. “Not only did that not materialize, but even the negotiations expected to bear fruit within two months were halted following a damning IAEA report and a resolution tabled by Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.”

A systemic crisis

The intensifying criticism — from across Iran’s political spectrum — comes as the country faces the possible snapback of all UN sanctions, a blow that could sever its economic lifeline.

Hardliners like Rasai frame the moment as a prelude to war; moderates like Namazi see a presidency adrift.

For many Iranians online, however, the attacks only underline a deeper reality: the country’s troubles lie in a rigid political system that no president alone can fix.