Iran’s ballistic missile fire dropped as launchers destroyed - JINSA

Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel sharply declined after June 17 due to Israeli strikes that degraded its launcher and missile stockpiles, the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) said in a report published Thursday.

The think tank estimated that Iran’s launch capacity fell from 350 to around 100 operational launchers over the course of the 12-day conflict, with daily missile fire dropping from more than 30 missiles to fewer than five by June 24.

“Iran likely diminished the volume of its ballistic missile attacks because Israel degraded Iranian launch capacity by eliminating missile launchers and stockpiles,” the report said.

Iran turned to fewer, more advanced missiles

According to JINSA, as its capacity declined, Iran increasingly relied on longer-range and heavier missiles to continue threatening Israeli cities. On June 22, after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran reportedly launched a Khorramshahr-4 missile — its longest-range system with the heaviest warhead in its arsenal.

JINSA also cited Iranian use of cluster munitions and tactical shifts toward smaller, more frequent missile waves as an effort to stretch Israeli air defenses and maintain psychological pressure despite falling overall firepower.

By the end of the conflict, Iran had likely lost 33 to 50 percent of its pre-war medium-range missile stockpile, which stood at around 2,500, the report said. Israel intercepted most of the missiles, but JINSA noted that Iran’s hit rate increased to 25–37 percent in the final days, as it used more advanced weapons and modified tactics.