Taliban weighs IRGC, al-Qaeda escape as Iran refugee intake looms

The Taliban’s General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI) held a high-level internal session on the possible escape of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and al-Qaeda members into Afghanistan, alongside a potential wave of Iranian refugees, Afghanistan International has learned.

Amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic, the session outlined several key concerns and scenarios.

IRGC members seeking asylum

Facing potential instability, senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could flee Iran and seek refuge in Afghanistan. GDI discussed the possibility during the session that such individuals might request protection from the Taliban, according to Afghanistan International’s sources.

Risk of al-Qaeda member relocation

Senior al-Qaeda figures such as Saif al-Adel and Abu Abdulrahman, who are believed to currently reside in Iran, may attempt to escape the country amid instability. GDI has asked the Taliban leadership for guidance on how to respond if they attempt to enter Afghanistan—whether to accept them, place them under surveillance, or reject their entry altogether. This discussion was part of the internal analysis obtained by Afghanistan International.

In 2021, then–US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of harboring al-Qaeda leaders. US and UN intelligence agencies later confirmed that Saif al-Adel was residing in Iran and is now considered al-Qaeda’s de facto leader. In 2024, the US State Department reaffirmed that Iran continues to provide safe haven to senior al-Qaeda operatives.

Preparedness for influx of Iranian refugees

GDI has posed a critical question: Can Afghanistan absorb a possible wave of Iranian refugees? The session called for urgent contingency planning to evaluate national capacity, political risks, and humanitarian consequences.