Miscalculation left Iran exposed to Israeli strikes - NYT

Iranian officials say a critical miscalculation left the country vulnerable to Israel’s sweeping military campaign on Friday, according to a detailed New York Times report based on interviews with senior Iranian military figures.

Tehran had expected Israel to wait until after another scheduled round of US-Iran nuclear talks on Sunday in Oman before acting, and dismissed signs of imminent attack as psychological pressure.

As a result, key precautions were neglected. Top IRGC commanders, including Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, reportedly ignored a directive not to gather together and were killed while meeting at a military base in Tehran.

Also, "officials said that the night of Israel’s attack, senior military commanders did not shelter in safe houses and instead stayed in their own homes, a fateful decision," the report said.

Israel struck at least 15 sites across Iran, including major cities and critical infrastructure. The attacks severely damaged air defenses, missile bases, and the aboveground portion of the Natanz nuclear facility. Iranian leadership is said to be grappling with the scale of the intelligence failure and the political cost of the unprecedented strike, which has raised questions even within the Islamic Republic’s ruling circles.

Despite internal divisions and fears of escalation, Ali Khamenei ultimately authorized a limited retaliatory missile barrage on Israel, though IRGC members admitted they were unable to launch the planned 1,000 missiles due to damage from the initial Israeli strikes. Only about 100 missiles were launched in the end.