Miscalculation left Iran exposed to Israeli strikes - NYT
Rescuers work at the site of a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025.
Iranian officials say a critical miscalculation left the country vulnerable to Israel’s sweeping military campaign on Friday, according to a detailed New York Times report based on interviews with senior Iranian military figures.
Tehran had expected Israel to wait until after another scheduled round of US-Iran nuclear talks on Sunday in Oman before acting, and dismissed signs of imminent attack as psychological pressure.
As a result, key precautions were neglected. Top IRGC commanders, including Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, reportedly ignored a directive not to gather together and were killed while meeting at a military base in Tehran.
Also, "officials said that the night of Israel’s attack, senior military commanders did not shelter in safe houses and instead stayed in their own homes, a fateful decision," the report said.
Israel struck at least 15 sites across Iran, including major cities and critical infrastructure. The attacks severely damaged air defenses, missile bases, and the aboveground portion of the Natanz nuclear facility. Iranian leadership is said to be grappling with the scale of the intelligence failure and the political cost of the unprecedented strike, which has raised questions even within the Islamic Republic’s ruling circles.
Despite internal divisions and fears of escalation, Ali Khamenei ultimately authorized a limited retaliatory missile barrage on Israel, though IRGC members admitted they were unable to launch the planned 1,000 missiles due to damage from the initial Israeli strikes. Only about 100 missiles were launched in the end.
Rescue teams evacuate wounded civilians and search through the rubble in Ramat Gan. According to i24NEWS, at least 63 people were injured, including two critically, and 300 residents were evacuated.
Israel’s ongoing military strikes on Iran—code-named “Rising Lion”—were the result of years of preparation and mark just the beginning of what’s to come, Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli said in an interview with Eye for Iran.
“This operation took years to prepare,” Chikli told Eye for Iran. “It's the very hard walk of the IDF intelligence, the Mossad... thousands of people are involved in this.”
“This is just the beginning,” he said, without disclosing operational details or how the mission might continue.
Iran launched over 200 missiles at Israel injuring at least 14 people after Israeli attacks killed its top military leadership and pounded armed forces and nuclear sites leaving scores of Iranians dead.
While Israel’s initial strikes hit key nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure spans dozens of locations. According to Israeli assessments, further strikes will likely be needed to eliminate what is seen as an existential threat.
Chikli said the objective was not regime change, but to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. While many Iranians have called on Israel to help bring down the Islamic Republic, he said meaningful change must come from within.
“This is the time to seize the moment and to try and take back your country from the Revolutionary Guards," said Chikli, "Will Iranians use this moment to change the course of history, or not?”
Diplomacy may follow destruction
Major Andrew Fox, a former British Army officer, also said the Israeli strikes were deliberately calibrated to avoid full-scale regime decapitation—signaling intent, not total war.
“If they'd been serious about regime change, then Khamenei and the president would have been fully in scope for targeting.”
Fox emphasized that while regime change might remain a long-term objective, Israel’s more immediate priority is clear: "The short-term aim has to be focusing on making sure Iran doesn't gain a nuclear weapon capability."
He suggested that President Donald Trump may be using the Israeli operation as strategic leverage to push Tehran back to the negotiating table—after exhausting political and economic pressure.
“Trump is talking about giving Iran another opportunity to make a deal... That's the horse trade that Israel made with Washington.”
Fox’s analysis points to a pattern: when sanctions and diplomacy fail to alter Tehran’s behavior, military action becomes a final tool—not necessarily to start a war, but to reset the terms for diplomacy.
Iran’s weakest moment
Dr. Eric Mandel, a Middle East analyst and advisor to US and Israeli defense officials, told Eye for Iranthat this moment marks the Islamic Republic’s deepest vulnerability since its founding in 1979—one of the most consequential events in modern Iranian and Middle Eastern history.
“Iran is at its weakest in 46 years,” said Mandel, who directs the Middle East Political and Information Network (MEPIN).
He says Trump now faces a defining choice—retreat into isolationism or use Israeli military action as leverage for long-term strategic change.
“The big question is, what will President Trump do? Not what the Israelis will do. What will the president do with what Israel has handed to them?”
Mandel suggests that one option remains on the table: a US strike on Iran’s deeply fortified enrichment site.
“America could retaliate and would the president make a phone call to Diego Garcia where our B-2 bombers with the massive ordinances are and attack the one place that hasn't been attacked as we know which is the deeply buried enrichment facility in Fordow”
The Lion Rises Israeli Minister Chikli said the operation’s name, Rising Lion, came from both Iran’s original flag and a verse from the Book of Numbers: ‘A nation that rises like a lion.’
"We believe this is a moment not just for security—but for shared history and future peace.”
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music and Castbox.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says recent developments have effectively ended the possibility of continued diplomacy with the United States, blaming Washington for enabling Israel’s attack on Iranian territory.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Friday that Israel had "crossed all of our red lines" in its latest strike.
"The other side (the US) did something that made dialogue meaningless," he said. "You cannot claim to seek negotiations while at the same time coordinating efforts and allowing a genocidal regime to target Iran's territorial integrity."
Baghaei added that it was inconceivable that Israel could have launched such an attack without US approval. "Israel has long dreamed of dragging Western parties into deeper conflict. It seems this time it has again succeeded in disrupting the diplomatic process."
Iranian air defenses in Isfahan are attempting to shoot down Israeli projectiles amid a new wave of airstrikes hitting several parts of Iran, including Tehran.
Multiple explosions hit areas in Hakimiyeh and Tehranpars neighborhoods in eastern Tehran, according to videos obtained by Iran International.
