Saudi, UAE navigate Iran nuclear threat with hedging strategy – Israeli think tank

Turkey, long a major customer, imported over 5 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States in the first quarter of 2025, according to Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA).

That’s nearly the same volume as in all of 2024—which itself marked a 38% jump from 2023. The United States is now Turkey’s second-largest gas supplier after Russia, displacing Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran is grappling with year-round gas deficits. Last winter, domestic shortages roughly equaled Turkey’s daily seasonal demand.

EMRA data shows that Iran’s winter deliveries to Turkey have halved over the past two years, failing to meet the agreed quota in every month of the cold season.

A 25-year agreement between Tehran and Ankara expires next year. Despite repeated offers to renew, Turkey has shown little interest, bolstering its energy ties with Russia, Azerbaijan, and the US.

In March, Ankara began importing gas from Turkmenistan through swap deals via Iran—further reducing direct reliance on Iranian supply.

Iraq and Syria: shrinking markets

Iraq, Iran’s only remaining major gas customer, has also reported a sharp drop in supply.

Reduced deliveries from Iran have cut electricity production by 3,000 megawatts, according to Iraqi officials, just as summer demand peaks. Iran now supplies only 3% of Iraq’s electricity needs, down from 10% just a few years ago.

Turkey has stepped into the void, doubling its electricity exports to Iraq in 2025 and now supplying more than twice the volume Iran provides.

Tehran earns an estimated $5.5 billion annually from electricity and gas exports. Yet the strategy of converting regional political leverage into economic gains appears to be unraveling.

For years, Iran spent tens of billions of dollars supporting armed groups in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, hoping to convert influence into energy contracts and infrastructure projects. But the hard-gained influence all but vaporised with Israeli strikes and the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Syria, once a central partner in Tehran’s ambitions, has effectively cut ties. Iraq plans to end reliance on Iranian gas within two years.

Lost Ground

From 2012 to 2023, Iran sent more than 300 million barrels of free crude oil to Syria—worth $23 billion, according to energy analytics firm Kpler— in hopes of securing energy and industrial dominance in postwar reconstruction.

Last week, Syria’s interim government signed a $7 billion deal with Qatari, Turkish and US firms to build 6,000 megawatts of new generation capacity.

Turkey will supply 2 billion cubic meters of gas annually, while Qatar began gas shipments via Jordan in March, bypassing Iran entirely.

Even before Assad’s fall, Iran lagged behind. Turkey exported 15 times more goods to Syria than Iran. Today, Iran’s trade has all but stopped, while Turkish exports to Syria topped $1 billion in the first four months of 2025 — a 32% increase over the same period last year.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s latest speech was his clearest stance yet ahead of a possible war scenario, said the international relations expert and security analyst Shahin Modarres.

“Given the substance of these remarks, the Trump administration is likely concerned and may push for a final round of negotiations in the coming weeks,” Modarres told Iran International TV.

If talks fail, he said, the US would swiftly move to impose severe economic pressure on Iran through snapback mechanisms or fresh international sanctions.

“Israel’s role will then become more pronounced,” Modarres added, pointing to the likelihood of at least a limited military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites to force Tehran back to the table.

Modarres said broader attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure would also remain on the table.

“We now face a narrowing window,” he said. “The question is whether either side is willing to step back from its maximalist position—or whether we are entering an extremely tense and dangerous phase.”

Israeli officials have not issued a formal response to Ali Khamenei’s latest remarks, but private assessments see the speech as a serious escalation, Middle East analyst Menashe Amir told Iran International TV.

“In private conversations I’ve had with informed individuals, the conclusion was that we are one step closer to war,” Amir said.

According to Amir, those consulted described Khamenei’s address as his most forceful to date, resolving long-standing doubts.

In his speech, the Supreme Leader said that the Islamic Republic will under no circumstances give up uranium enrichment.

The United States' negotiation position in the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran risks overlooking key threats, including Tehran’s ballistic missile program, drone warfare, and support for regional proxies, said Eric Mandel, the founder and Director of the Middle East Political and Information Network (MEPIN).

"What's maybe even more worrying is that ballistic missiles are not discussed or are part of this, drones, the abandonment of Iranian people, and proxies," he told Iran International.

Iran has long been preparing to defend its nuclear facilities against a possible military strike, defense and security analyst Farzin Nadimi said in an interview with Iran International.

"Israel’s past attacks on Iran were exploratory," Nadimi said, adding that “if an assault is launched with the goal of destroying all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, it would require precise planning and consideration of Iran’s defense capabilities—something the Islamic Republic has been preparing for over many years.”

Nadimi said Tehran has built an integrated air defense network under Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters — Iran’s central command for air defense — uniting the capabilities of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the army.

Since the late 2010s, the Islamic Republic has worked to unify its air defense systems under a project known as the “Great Prophet System,” according to Nadimi.