Saudi, UAE navigate Iran nuclear threat with hedging strategy – Israeli think tank

Arab states astride the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are pursuing a hedging strategy to navigate growing risks from Iran’s advancing nuclear program, according to an analysis published Thursday by Israel’s Alma Research and Education Center.

The report said that Iran’s uranium stockpile enriched to 60% now exceeds 400 kg—theoretically enough for nearly ten nuclear weapons.

According to the analysis, Iran’s Persian Gulf neighbors are preparing for two possible outcomes: a military strike—likely Israeli or US-led—on Iran’s nuclear facilities, or a new US-Iran agreement that might allow Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

While publicly supporting diplomacy, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are quietly distancing themselves from direct confrontation with Iran, balancing outreach with deterrence, Alma said. The UAE maintains economic ties with Tehran while cooperating militarily with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and Riyadh is boosting its defense posture through a $142 billionarms framework with the United States.

“There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia continues to see Iran and its proxies as a central threat,” Alma said.