US-Iran deal may be on track to resemble the one Trump scuttled, expert says

An apparent sole focus for US-Iran talks on Tehran's nuclear program could make any deal resemble one President Donald Trump exited in 2018 for allegedly being too soft on Tehran, a leading American expert on Iran said.

Ilan Berman, a former CIA and Pentagon consultant now senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council told Iran International that early signs could point to a deal that does not address the issues which led to that pullout.

"The same concerns that prompted the Trump administration to withdraw from the JCPOA — limited duration, narrow scope, and overly generous concessions to Tehran — are once again at the center of the conversation."

"Ballistic missiles are the most likely delivery mechanism for a future nuclear weapon. Excluding them from the deal, as was done in 2015, is a critical flaw," Berman added.

"It’s a concession that should never have been made — and repeating it now would be a serious mistake."

The advancement of talks to discussions between Iranian and US specialist teams on technical matters which began on April 26 could signal that major political decisions have been already made, Berman said.

"When negotiations reach the expert level, it typically means that the parties have already achieved consensus on key issues and are now refining the technical details."

"By that measure, the talks are moving swiftly. While I’m uncertain whether a deal will be finalized within the next two months, there’s no question this process is progressing significantly faster than previous negotiations."

President Trump’s informal 60-day deadline for reaching a new deal might also favor Tehran, Berman added.

"There are three-time pressures shaping this process: the approaching snapback deadline at the UN, the looming US midterm election cycle and the pace of Iran’s nuclear advancements. Each factor limits Washington’s options and strengthens Tehran’s bargaining position."

Berman warned that a desire for quick political victories — especially after diplomatic disappointments with Russia and Hamas — could lead the administration to make premature concessions in the Iran file.

Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is handling all three dossiers.

"The current team is handling multiple high-stakes portfolios simultaneously, and that’s deeply concerning," Berman said. "When you try to solve Russia, Gaza and Iran all at once, you risk compromising the depth and quality of each."

Berman also raised concerns about the precedent a new agreement might set for nuclear non-proliferation in the broader Middle East.

"If Iran retains the right to enrich uranium, regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey will demand the same," he warned.

"That undermines the integrity of the global non-proliferation regime."