Talks are a survival tactic amid looming sunset clauses - Israeli think tank

Iran's renewed engagement in nuclear talks with the United States is likely a survival tactic driven by economic, geopolitical, and social pressures, rather than a fundamental shift in strategy, according to an analysis by Oded Ailam of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA).

Ailam, a former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, pointed out the critical expiration of key provisions of the 2015 nuclear agreement in October 2025.

These "Sunset Clauses" include the end of restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program, the ban on advanced uranium enrichment technology development, and limits on civilian nuclear trade.

The analysis warns that if these clauses expire without a new arrangement, Iran will face no significant legal barriers to developing a military nuclear infrastructure within weeks. This scenario, Ailam argues, could trigger a dangerous nuclear arms race in the Middle East, prompting countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Egypt to pursue their own independent nuclear programs.

Drawing a parallel to a Persian proverb about muddying waters to catch fish, Ailam suggests Iran's negotiation method involves exhausting and obscuring, rather than seeking quick agreement.