Araghchi says Trump likely understands predecessors' failures on Iran
"I am cautiously optimistic that this toxic dynamic may be about to change," foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said in remarks prepared for the Carnegie conference on Iran's nuclear program, which cancelled his appearance following a dispute over the format of his speech.
Araghchi was referring to what he called misconceptions about Iran's peaceful nuclear program which he said hindered diplomacy in the past.
"President Trump seems aware of the catastrophic mistakes of previous administrations, which have cost American taxpayers trillions of dollars in our region—with zero gains for the United States," according to a draft of the speech he shared on X.
He said Iran remained committed to civilian nuclear technology and dangled the prospect of business opportunities with the United States in the sector.
"Our longstanding game plan is to build at least 19 more reactors, meaning that tens of billions of dollars in potential contracts are up for grabs. The Iranian market alone is big enough to revitalize the struggling nuclear industry in the United States."
Tehran would not negotiate in US talks about its defense given the volatility of the region, nor surrender nuclear capabilities allowed under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), he added.
"The scope of negotiations must also be clear; negotiations should remain focused solely on removal of sanctions and the nuclear issue," Araghchi said. "In a region as rough and volatile as ours, Iran will never put its security up for negotiation."
"Iran must not be treated as an exception within the global nonproliferation framework. As a signatory to the NPT, Iran is entitled to the same rights and bound by the same obligations as any other member," Araghchi added. "Respecting this principle of equality is essential to achieving a fair and lasting resolution."
Iran has executed a Kurdish political prisoner who was accused of rebellion through membership in the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militant group, state-run media outlets reported on Monday.
A report by the Revolutionary Guard's outlet Fars News says Hamid Hosseinnezhad Heydaranlou helped a team of terrorists kill several Iranian border guards enter and exit Iran's borders in November 2017.
However, Hosseinnezhad's daughter Ronahi says security agents forced her father to make a coerced confession under torture.
Born in 1985 and a father of three, Hosseinnezhad worked as a border porter in the Chalderan region to support his family, according to Kurdpa human rights organization.
He was arrested in April 2023 by border guards near Chalderan, interrogated for several hours, and then transferred to the Urmia Intelligence Detention Center.
Hosseinnezhad had previously been moved to solitary confinement on April 15 for the planned execution on April 17. However, the execution was halted that morning amid widespread public protest on social media and the presence of his family and other people outside the prison.
In a brief phone call with his family, Hosseinnezhad confirmed being held in the Urmia Intelligence facility and urged them to follow up on his case.
On the same day, his daughter released a video saying that her father was tortured in prison and forced to confess under duress.
Hosseinnezhad was tried in July 2024 by Reza Najafzadeh, head of Branch 1 of the Urmia Revolutionary Court, and sentenced to death on charges of “rebellion through membership in the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).”
According to Kurdpa, he endured 11 months and 10 days of psychological and physical torture aimed at extracting forced confessions of participation in armed clashes between the PKK and Iranian border forces.
In recent months, a rise in executions and death sentences for political prisoners in Iran has sparked widespread condemnation from rights groups and Western governments.
Iran hopes to revive offshore oil and gas exploration after a six-year hiatus as regional rivals Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have made significant recent discoveries and deals on their own patches.
The director of exploration at the National Iranian Oil Company said earlier this month that offshore oil and gas exploration in Iranian waters will resume after a six-year halt.
"For the first time in five years, we’ve signed a contract for an offshore exploration rig," Mohiyeddin Jafari said, according to the oil ministry's news website Shana. "We hope to begin operations in shared maritime border zones by 2025."
Jafari cited a “shortage of rigs” as the reason for the suspension of offshore oil and gas exploration.
However, reports from OPEC and Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum indicate that the number of drilling rigs in the country has remained stable over the past years, hovering around 160 units, with about 20 of them dedicated to offshore drilling.
Nonetheless, it remains unclear how many of Iran’s drilling rigs—most of which were built by Western companies decades ago—are still operational. In 2020, Reuters reported that Iran was struggling to obtain spare parts for Western-made rigs, and that a quarter of its drilling platforms were out of service, with many others operating only partially.
That same year, the state-run IRNA news agency quoted oil officials as saying that 85% of Iranian rigs required repairs and parts replacement.
Another major challenge for Iran is the lack of financial resources. The Iranian Parliament’s Research Center previously reported that annual investment in the country’s upstream oil and gas sector (exploration and production) has halved following US sanctions imposed in 2018, dropping to around $3 billion, compared to the previous years.
For comparison on a larger scale, annual investment was around $19 billion in the 2000s during the peak of Western companies’ involvement in Iran’s oil and gas projects.
Exploration and drilling costs are significantly higher offshore than onshore and given the government's financial constraints, developing offshore fields has not been a priority.
Belal joint oil field in southern Iran
Caspian Sea Iran is the only Caspian littoral state with no offshore oil or gas production, and Iran’s only seismic vessel in the Caspian Sea, named Pajvak, was destroyed in a fire in 2005.
The country’s only offshore drilling platform in the Caspian, named Amirkabir, was moved to Iran’s Caspian coast a decade ago for maintenance and remains inactive, just a few kilometers from shore. As such, the discovery of new gas fields in the Caspian waters appears impossible for Iran.
Ilham Shaban, head of the Caspian Oil Studies Center in Azerbaijan, told Iran International that last year Azerbaijan produced 580,000 barrels per day (bpd), Kazakhstan 350,000 bpd, Turkmenistan and Russia both than 100,000 bpd from their respective offshore Caspian fields.
Azerbaijan also produced around 50 billion cubic meters of gas from the Caspian Sea, half of which was exported—mainly to Europe. Russia produces annually 1.5 bcm gas from the Caspian fields.
Meanwhile, Arab countries south of Iran have increasingly participated in developing the Caspian offshore projects of the three Turkic states. Over the past two decades, the UAE’s Dragon Oil has invested $10 billion in Turkmenistan’s offshore sector and extended its investment agreement until 2035.
In 2023, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) purchased a 30% stake in the Absheron gas field—Caspian’s second-largest offshore gas field—in Azerbaijani waters, becoming a partner with France’s TotalEnergies in the project.
Just last month, Kazakhstan’s national oil company KazMunayGas officially invited ADNOC to invest in its offshore fields.
Southern waters of Iran
Unlike the Caspian Sea, where Iran has no joint fields with neighbors, all of Iran’s southern neighbors share offshore oil and gas fields with Iran. Not only do they produce several times more than Iran, but they are also rapidly developing these joint projects.
Iran currently extracts only 35,000 bpd from the joint Forouzan (Marjan) field with Saudi Arabia. In contrast, Saudi Arabia produces 18 times more than Iran from this field and has signed contracts worth $12 billion with foreign companies to increase daily oil output to 800,000 barrels and gas production to 70 million cubic meters within the next four years.
Another joint field between Iran and Saudi Arabia is Farzad (Hasbah), from which Iran has no production. Saudi Arabia began producing 30 million cubic meters of gas daily from this field in 2013 and plans to increase it to 75 million cubic meters in coming years.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also share two other fields with Iran: Esfandiar (Lulu) and Arash (Dorra). They have already developed the former and signed agreements to develop the latter. While Iran claims a share in these fields, both Arab nations have rejected that claim.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have developed two more shared fields—Khafji and Wafra—with a combined production capacity of 500,000 bpd over the past decade. The mentioned fields are not joint with Iran.
Iran and the United Arab Emirates share the Salman and Nosrat fields. Each country produces around 50,000 bpd from Salman, but the UAE extracts 20 times more than Iran from Nosrat—about 65,000 bpd.
Iran also shares the Hengam field with Oman, with both countries producing around 10,000 bpd each.
However, the most important offshore field for Iran is South Pars—the largest gas field in the world—which it shares with Qatar. Qatar began gas production from the field a decade earlier than Iran and has so far extracted 2.5 times more gas than Iran from what it calls the North Dome.
While the Iranian portion of the field entered its second half of life last year—meaning production will decline by 10 billion cubic meters each year—Qatar has signed $29 billion in new contracts with international companies to boost its gas production from the field by 65% by the end of this decade.
The Israeli Air Force conducted drills on Monday simulating missile and rocket attacks on the same air bases targeted in Iranian air strikes in April and October 2024, a report by Kan News said.
"The exercise aims to boost readiness in case Iran-US talks collapse," it added.
The Nevatim air base in southern Israel, the Tel Nof base in central Israel and the Mossad spy agency headquarters in Glilot were the bases hit by Iranian missiles in October, according to videos verified by the Washington Post.
Previous Iranian air strikes in April 2024 also targeted the Nevatim and Ramon air bases, both in southern Israel.
The New York Times reported last week that Israel had prepared to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in May, aiming to delay Tehran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon by a year or more.
Trump ultimately chose not to support the plan, according to administration officials and others cited by the newspaper, instead opening a diplomatic track with Iran to negotiate limits on its nuclear program.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday the country remains open to reaching a deal with the United States, but warned Tehran will continue on its own course if Washington refuses to engage on equal terms.
"In negotiations with the United States, we are ready to reach an agreement within a defined framework and while safeguarding national interests. However, if they are unwilling to negotiate with us on equal footing, we will continue on our own path," Pezeshkian said.
"As the Supreme Leader has said, we are neither optimistic nor pessimistic."
"We are not looking for conflict," he added, "but we also do not accept force or bullying."