Iran proposes three-stage deal to cap enrichment if US lifts sanctions

At the beginning of the week, Witkoff seemed to suggest that Washington would accept low-level uranium enrichment with Iran, but the following day he retreated, and the rest of the Trump administration began to emphasize that all of Iran’s nuclear program should be stopped

The change came after President Donald Trump said he held meetings with groups of politicians and officials in Washington about the matter. Those politicians could have possibly been individuals who warned Trump that the deal as explained by Witkoff looks more like an Obama deal rather than a Trump deal.

In Tehran, an article published on the Fararu website suggested that two types of unexpected developments could arise at any moment, potentially reshaping the course of the negotiations and broader regional dynamics. One could seriously disrupt the talks, while the other might lead to a sudden breakthrough.

According to Fararu, the first possibility involves a dramatic escalation by Israel—such as a fatal attack on Iranian officials, particularly those directly involved in the negotiations. The second potential surprise, the article argues, could come from an abrupt shift in President Trump’s stance, should he decide to strike a quick deal with Iran in order to claim a diplomatic win on a high-profile international issue.

At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that President Donald Trump had crossed Tehran’s red line by stating that Iran must halt all uranium enrichment—a core point of contention in the nuclear talks.

Several Iranian analysts, including Iran International’s Ali Hossein Ghazizadeh, argued that Araghchi’s statement could effectively bring the negotiations with Washington to an end.

His remarks came just one day before a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and less than three days before his scheduled second meeting with US envoy Steve Witkoff—whose venue had still not been finalized at the time.

To the dismay of Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Iranian and US media reported on Wednesday afternoon that the next round of talks would take place in Rome. The ministry’s spokesperson reacted angrily to the announcement, calling it a sign that “the United States is not serious or committed to the negotiations.”

Interestingly, it was Iran that initially agreed to Rome as the venue. Italian officials welcomed the decision, but Tehran later reversed course and announced that the meeting should instead be held in Oman. According to reporters, two factors may have contributed to this shift: concerns that Iranian opposition groups abroad were planning protests in Rome, and Araghchi’s reported apprehension about a possible encounter with US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is also expected to visit the Italian capital on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Italian government has expressed its desire to host the meeting at the Italian Foreign Ministry and has reportedly sought to involve other European countries in the talks. Iran, however, has insisted that the meeting be held at the Omani Foreign Minister’s residence in Rome—possibly to keep protesters and reporters at a distance.

Despite Araghchi’s recent critical remarks, conservative commentator Nasser Imani told the Nameh News website in Tehran that Iran might ultimately agree to direct talks with US officials if circumstances require it.

From President Trump’s perspective, only direct negotiations are meaningful. Araghchi, on the other hand, has maintained that the first round of talks was conducted indirectly, with the Omani foreign minister acting as an intermediary. Nevertheless, Araghchi acknowledged greeting Steve Witkoff for about five minutes at the end of the meeting—while reporters claim the two actually held face-to-face talks lasting around 45 minutes.

In his latest speech in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei struck an unusually upbeat tone regarding the talks with the United States, though he cautioned that he was “neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic.” On Thursday night, when Russian President Vladimir Putin receives Khamenei’s message, he will be among the first to glimpse which direction the Supreme Leader is now leaning.

Grossi spoke during his visit to Tehran on Thursday, following talks with senior Iranian officials ahead of a new round of US-Iran diplomacy expected to continue in Rome.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if the negotiations fail.

“I am also in contact with the American negotiator to see how the agency can be a bridge between Iran and the US, and help achieve a positive outcome in the negotiations,” Grossi said. He added that IAEA verification would be required for any agreement to be considered valid.

Grossi has been invited to Rome for the occasion of the second round of Iran-US talks, Reuters reported citing a diplomatic source. However, Iran's deputy FM says it's too soon to engage the IAEA in the talks.

In February, the agency warned that Iran was enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels, calling the situation “of serious concern.” Tehran has consistently denied seeking nuclear arms.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami met Grossi during his trip.

“Had useful discussion with visiting IAEA chief Grossi,” Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X. “In the coming months, the Agency can play a crucial role in peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear file.”

Araghchi also warned of potential domestic spoilers in the process, adding: “We need a Director General of Peace.”

The agency’s position has gained traction with US officials, who have made broader inspections a central demand.

On Monday, Trump's Envoy Steve Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News that “This is going to be much about verification on the enrichment program, and then ultimately verification on weaponization. That includes missiles—the type of missiles that they have stockpiled there—and it includes the trigger for a bomb.”

If Iran's uranium enrichment is curtailed or banned altogether, strict monitoring would become necessary. Witkoff also mentioned Iran's ballistic missile program as part of any potential nuclear weaponization and urged inspections.

In a live televised interview on Wednesday evening, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi downplayed the significance of the venue change. “We should not waste our time on the location and timing of the talks,” he said. “We agreed to multiple changes in the location. It’s not an important issue.”

However, Gharibabadi stressed that Oman would continue to facilitate and mediate the negotiation in the Italian capital.

Oman’s role as mediator and preferred host

Oman has long served as a discreet and trusted intermediary between Tehran and Washington. Its role dates back to the early 2010s, when Muscat hosted secret backchannel talks that ultimately led to the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). The United States also sees Oman as a discreet and stable mediator with a history of hosting secret talks with Tehran.

Oman played a crucial, behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the September 2023 exchange of five American detainees in Iran, widely regarded as hostages, and several Iranians held in the US who were accused or convicted of sanctions violations. The deal, brokered with Qatar’s involvement, included the transfer of around $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds from South Korea to accounts in Qatar that have not been released to Iran yet.

Geographic proximity—just a two-hour flight from Tehran—and Oman’s low media profile also make it attractive to Iran. In contrast, European capitals like Vienna or Geneva pose higher risks of media exposure, diplomatic interference, and intelligence surveillance.

Additionally, holding talks in Muscat sends a domestic political signal: resistance to Western pressure, particularly from European countries aligned with Washington on contentious issues like Iran’s missile program, regional policies, and sanctions.

Tehran’s concerns over security risks in European capitals

Tehran’s reluctance to hold talks in Europe also stems from security concerns, particularly fears of espionage and surveillance. Iranian officials remain wary of cyber-espionage in European cities, where Western and Israeli intelligence agencies are believed to be more active.

They are especially concerned about the heightened risk of electronic surveillance targeting the Iranian delegation in hotels, diplomatic sites, and transportation hubs, as well as the possible interception of sensitive communications.

Cyber-espionage during JCPOA talks

In March 2015, senior US officials told the Wall Street Journal that American negotiators in the talks in Austria and Switzerland had been briefed about the threat of Israeli eavesdropping during the nuclear talks that led to the conclusion of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). There were media reports that then US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's top negotiator Mohammad-Javad Zarif took walks outside the venue of talks to discuss important issues to avoid eavesdropping.

A few days ahead of the final round of the talks in Vienna in June of the same year, the cybersecurity company Kaspersky reported finding a variant of the Stuxnet virus in the networks of three hotels that hosted the negotiations. The company’s report said infected computers could be used to control cameras, microphones, and phone systems at these hotels to spy on the talks and delegations. Symantec, another security company, confirmed Kaspersky’s findings. 

“The disastrous history of Israel spying on its allies and the incompetence of Western surveillance agencies is a major concern for the Iranian delegation,” said an article titled “What Makes the Decision on Venue of Nuclear Talks Complicated” published by Fararu on Thursday.

The article added that preventing leaks from European diplomats and shielding the process from Israeli or other cyber sabotage likely explains Tehran’s insistence on having the Omani embassy in Rome serve as the host, even if the physical location is no longer Muscat.

Dissident protests possible in European capitals

Another factor influencing Tehran’s preference is the visibility of exiled Iranian dissident groups in Europe, including the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) and monarchist factions. These groups often mobilize large crowds to protest outside the venue of talks, creating negative optics and media coverage that Iranian officials find politically damaging.

Such protests are far less likely to occur in Oman, where dissident groups have limited reach and the government maintains tighter control over public demonstrations.

The commentaries follow five days of speculation over the venue for the second round of talks, along with a considerable degree of public negotiations in which both sides voiced at times contradictory positions.

Kayhan, a daily overseen by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office, warned that portraying negotiations as the solution to Iran’s economic problems is both misleading and dangerous. This view aligns with Khamenei’s longstanding position since 2018, when President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions. At the time, Khamenei rejected negotiations with Trump and insisted that Iran could endure the pressure without making concessions.

“A tainted and mission-driven current inside the country promotes the idea that 100 percent of our economic troubles stem from sanctions, and that negotiations are the only way to remove them,” the paper wrote.

“This viewpoint was already tested during the JCPOA and yielded nothing but ‘sheer loss’.”

Kayhan did not reject talks outright but insisted they should remain limited.

“We must not abandon negotiations altogether,” the editorial continued. “But we must not put all our eggs in that basket either. At most, 30 percent of our economic problems are due to sanctions, and negotiations should be treated as just one of several tools—not the only one.”

Calling for a wartime posture across government institutions, Kayhan urged officials to invest in domestic capabilities.

“When the enemy, led by the US, threatened us with gasoline sanctions, we could have negotiated,” the paper wrote. “But what proved durable and reliable was relying on domestic capabilities… In the end, the gasoline sanctions were rendered ineffective through trust in revolutionary youth and round-the-clock efforts.”

Javan, a publication linked to the Revolutionary Guard, echoed the skepticism, warning against polarizing discourse.

“Extreme optimism or pessimism about talks risks fueling a false political dichotomy in foreign policy,” the paper wrote.

“A realistic approach strengthens the negotiating team’s resolve, avoids sending weak signals to the opponent, and builds the dignity and prudence necessary for successful diplomacy,” Javan concluded.

Iran and the US held the first round of nuclear talks in Muscat last Saturday, with both sides calling the exchange constructive. But remarks by the US representative—who initially said Iran could retain limited enrichment but later demanded a complete halt to nuclear activity—have heightened tensions.

Abouzar Rahmati, 42, a naturalized US citizen and resident of Great Falls, Virginia, admitted to conspiring to work with Iranian officials and intelligence operatives from at least December 2017 through June 2024. He faces up to 10 years in prison for acting as an agent of a foreign government and five years for conspiracy.

According to court documents, Rahmati offered his services to Tehran in 2017 and later traveled to Iran, where he met with intelligence officers and agreed to obtain information for them about the US solar energy sector. He also gained employment with a US company contracting for the FAA, where he downloaded at least 172 gigabytes of sensitive access-controlled data.

The files included documents related to the National Aerospace System (NAS), airport surveillance radar, and radio frequency data. The DOJ said Rahmati took the data to Iran and handed it over to Iranian officials in April 2022.

"Rahmati agreed to obtain information about the US solar energy industry and FAA data, and deliver it to Iranian officials," prosecutors said in a statement. He also used a cover story involving academic research to hide his contacts.

"This defendant knowingly acted on behalf of the Government of Iran and took steps to place sensitive information into its hands," said Assistant Attorney General Sue Bai, who leads the Justice Department’s National Security Division.

Rahmati’s sentencing is scheduled for August 26. The FBI and FAA's counterintelligence division were involved in the investigation.

"The Iranian government continues to target American institutions for infiltration," said US Attorney Edward Martin Jr. for the District of Columbia. "We will hold accountable anyone who puts our national security at risk."