Trump keeps mum on any preemptive strike plans on Iran nuclear sites

Authorities in Iran have announced widespread closures of schools, universities, and government offices on Tuesday as Tehran struggles to curb energy consumption amid a worsening winter crisis.

The closures are almost universal but the country’s southern regions with milder climate were less impacted as demand for heating are lower.

The crisis follows a summer of nationwide blackouts as Iran's electricity production and distribution systems failed to meet soaring demand. Now, with plunging winter temperatures in the north and west, the government appears equally unprepared to provide adequate heating for millions of citizens.

Heavy snowfall, rain, and worsening air pollution have compounded the challenges in recent days.

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has called on Iranians to shoulder the burden and lower their homes’ temperature — advice that has not gone down well with many.

Efforts to curb consumption include reducing government office hours to 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. through February and mandating remote work where feasible. Non-essential businesses have been ordered to close, while shopping centers are required to shut down by 8 p.m. to avoid their gas and electricity supplies cut off.

The closures come amid mounting gas shortages in the gas-rich country, with officials reporting a daily deficit of 350 million cubic meters of natural gas, compounded by a significant shortfall in fuel for power plants.

These deficits have forced more than a dozen power plants offline, intensifying electricity shortages nationwide.

Iran possesses some of the world’s richest energy resources, holding the second-largest natural gas reserves globally, surpassed only by Russia. It also ranks among the top countries in oil reserves.

The chronic energy woes stem from years of underinvestment and the impact of US-led sanctions which have hindered modernization efforts. Mismanagement and inefficiency in the energy sector have further exacerbated the crisis in the oil and gas rich country.

"The enemies aim to dominate a nation and its land by taking control of minds; we must protect minds, because if they gain control over them, other efforts will be ineffective," Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said in a speech on Monday.

Since nationwide protests in December 2017, there have been increasing signs that many younger Iranians in particular question the Islamic tenets of the governing establishment and oppose regional adventures in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

"Ignoring new threats and technologies will undoubtedly lead to strategic surprises for us," Sayyari added. "It is also essential to pay attention to disruptive concepts in warfare."

Israel’s edge in military tactics and weapons have inflicted serious losses on Iran’s main military proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah in recent months, and have seriously weakened Hamas, its other ally in the region. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria was the latest serious blow to Tehran’s regional influence.

Israel launched a large-scale air attack against Iran in October, devastating its air defenses and several military installations without encountering any serious defense or retaliation.

These led to more expressions of doubt about the Islamic Republic’s foreign and military policy, which openly declares enmity with Israel.

Even many politicians and commentators linked to the governing establishment in Iran have in recent month called for a review of these policies and a serious attempt to improve relations with the West.

Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, referred to the developments in Syria as a bitter lesson on Sunday and said that it stands alongside the lessons learned from the Iran-Iraq War.

Sayyari emphasized the importance of social awareness in confronting enemies and referred to inspiring the politically agnostic within society - a group he referred to as the gray spectrum.

"The best way to counter cognitive warfare is to raise awareness among the gray spectrum and increase public vigilance," the admiral said. "The gray spectrum is influential everywhere, and their intelligence and level of awareness must be enhanced for us to effectively prevent this type of warfare."

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, in an interview with Saudi-affiliated Al-Hadath on Sunday, reflected on the shift in regional dynamics, saying Iran must better understand its actions following Assad’s downfall.

“I think Iran will also learn lessons in the new period; we need to help Iran in a constructive way,” Fidan said. He outlined Turkey’s vision for the Middle East as one based on cooperation and respect for sovereignty, adding, “We don’t want Iranian domination, Turkish domination or Arab domination. It’s time for us to come together and establish our own interests, our own order in the region, shoulder to shoulder.”

The foreign minister criticized Assad’s inability to reconcile with his people or rebuild Syria, saying, “Either he [Assad] would have to share power with his people and make peace with them, or he would have to share power with external hegemonic forces that supported him against his people.”

Iran, meanwhile, has reacted strongly to Turkey’s growing influence. On Monday, Kayhan, a hardline newspaper aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of exploiting Syria’s conflict for his own political ambitions.

In an editorial titled "This neighbor is no longer trustworthy” Kayhan alleged that Erdogan seeks to revive the “Ottoman Caliphate” and warned of potential blowback. “Turkey’s gamble in Syria could ultimately destabilize Erdogan’s own regime, just as it did Assad’s,” the paper claimed.

Kayhan also accused Turkey of being the “stage manager of the crisis” since the civil war began in 2012, claiming Erdogan has prolonged instability to serve Turkish strategic goals.

While Kayhan accused Ankara of orchestrating a crisis in Syria, Fidan suggested that Assad’s reliance on external forces, including Russia and Iran, was part of his downfall.

“Of course, when he [Assad] shared this power with Russia and Iran, they fought together, they couldn’t take the decisions they wanted because each country had different interests," he said. "And after a certain point, when Assad failed to reconcile with his people, to bring back millions of people, to provide services to the people already in Syria, to provide basic services, to provide services to the economy, the system collapsed by itself.”

Tehran’s discontent with Ankara was hinted at earlier in Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s speech last week—his first public response to Assad’s ousting.

Though he did not name Turkey, Khamenei referred to a neighboring country as part of what he called a joint American and Israeli plan in Syria. The comments were widely interpreted as a veiled criticism of Turkey’s involvement.

This news analysis comes after Bashar al-Assad in Syria lost his grip on power after support from Iran and its ally Hezbollah were sapped by over a year of conflict with Israel.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, whose tenure is supported in part by Iran-backed armed groups, may now face pressure to prioritize Iraq’s sovereignty over foreign influence according to the daily.

"Iraq remains internally divided over the repercussions of the situation in Syria, with some still supporting intervention at this point. Factions and some actors in the Shiite political scene align with this view, consistent with Tehran’s stance, which has announced the continuation of resistance," wrote Al-Mada.

The Committee to Protect Journalists has said Al-Mada "is seen as one of the only remaining critical newspapers in Iraq".

Operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), these groups wield considerable power over Iraq’s governance, military operations, and energy infrastructure.

Despite their original mandate to combat ISIS, many of the militias have since expanded their activities, frequently targeting US forces and installations in Iraq with rockets and drones, and exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Washington.

The paper also highlighted fears of broader regional destabilization following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a key ally of Iran.

"Political forces have started warning about scenarios similar to Syria’s situation if rapid internal reforms are not implemented," wrote Al-Mada, citing thinktanks advising Iraqi government to distance itself from the poor governance of the Shiite political forces that have held power since 2003.

Tehran’s armed affiliates in Iraq may be weakened by the developments in Syria. The Australian Arab Institute for Strategic Affairs recently warned that Baghdad faces a critical juncture: either curb the influence of Iran-backed militias or risk becoming a target for escalating Israeli and US military operations.

Adding to the uncertainty are concerns about the potential reactivation of ISIS sleeper cells given the security vacuum next door.

“Iraq is trying to maintain a somewhat balanced relationship with Washington and not align itself entirely with Tehran,” Rahim al-Aboudi, a senior official in the National Wisdom Movement, was quoted as saying.

Growing public discontent

Domestically, public anger toward Iran’s proxies has intensified in recent years, particularly after their violent suppression of 2019 anti-government protests which criticized Iranian influence.

Social media has amplified these frustrations, with posts encouraging attacks on the Iranian embassy and measures to end the activities of armed groups backed by Tehran.

“Numerous individuals or fake accounts have called for citizens to arm themselves in opposition to Iran-backed forces,” Truske Sadeghi, a former Iran International correspondent posted on X.

The warnings of instability echo fears of a repeat of Iraq’s tumultuous recent past.

Unlike the ISIS incursions of 2014 which originated from Syria, analysts warn that any future unrest could arise from within Iraq’s cities, fueled by the same grievances that sparked the 2019 protests but on a potentially larger scale.

While Baghdad has reiterated that its borders are secure, the government’s inability to effectively manage the influence of IRGC-backed militias has left the country vulnerable to both domestic upheaval and regional spillovers.

As Iraq navigates mounting international and domestic pressures, its leadership could face a critical choice: assert greater control over Tehran-backed forces or risk a deeper descent into instability.

On Monday, 18 provinces, including Tehran and Isfahan, were effectively shut down as authorities cited cold weather and energy consumption management for the disruptions.

However, ongoing gas and electricity shortages suggest systemic failures rather than mere seasonal challenges.

According to state media, government operations were fully suspended in provinces such as East and West Azarbaijan, Ardebil, Razavi Khorasan, Golestan, and Gilan. In regions including Khuzestan and Yazd, partial closures and delays in operations highlighted the varying severity of the crisis, leaving only four provinces unaffected.

Alongside freezing temperatures, pollution in provinces like Khuzestan added to the crisis, with six cities classified as hazardous.

Sadegh Ziaeian, head of Iran's Meteorological Organization, reported subzero temperatures at 480 of the country's 675 weather stations, with 28 provincial capitals experiencing freezing conditions. However, the closures have failed to prevent continued gas and electricity outages, exposing the vulnerability of the country’s energy infrastructure.

Hassan Mousavi, spokesperson for Iran’s National Gas Company, confirmed that 850 million cubic meters of gas were injected into the network on Saturday, with 71% allocated to households, small businesses, and industries.

“The gas consumption in the residential, commercial, and small industrial sectors has increased by 17% compared to the same period last year,” he added.

Officials have warned of gas pressure drops in the national network, reflecting the fragile state of the energy system.

Blackouts and power plant shutdowns

The crisis has forced shutdowns at gas power plants in provinces including Golestan and Lorestan. Mehran Amiri, head of Lorestan's Electricity Distribution Company, announced the closure of the Doroud power plant.

"Gas-fired power plants in the province, with a capacity of 130 megawatts, have been taken offline due to increased gas consumption by users," said Amiri.

"The province's power plants, including the Doroud power plant with a capacity of 90 megawatts, are currently out of operation."

Ahmad Mousavi from Golestan’s Electricity Distribution Company reported similar shutdowns in Aliabad Katoul and smaller plants.

Scheduled blackouts in Golestan now last up to two hours per day for each consumer.

The power sector is under immense strain, with many recalling the widespread blackouts of summer 2023 when the failing energy grid struggled to meet demand in extreme heat.

Now, winter has exposed similar deficiencies in gas supply, with citizens enduring heating shortages and intermittent power outages despite government claims of network stability.

In an attempt to manage the crisis, officials have called on citizens to conserve energy through campaigns like Two Degrees Less, urging households to reduce heating. The initiative has drawn widespread ridicule on social media, with critics dismissing it as an inadequate response to systemic infrastructure failures.

Iranian citizens, already burdened by rising energy costs, have expressed growing frustration with the government’s lack of transparency. Officials continue to attribute disruptions to cold weather while avoiding acknowledgment of the underlying issues in the nation’s energy infrastructure.

Only on Sunday, schools and government offices in Tehran and many other provinces were declared fully or partially closed due to factors such as snowfall, rainfall, temperature drops, energy management, air pollution, and dust storms.

Tehran was also shut down on Wednesday and Thursday last week.

Iran's energy problems are not new. Decades of underinvestment in the power and gas sectors have left the country ill-equipped to handle seasonal surges in demand, the closures, pollution, and blackouts this winter serving a reminder of the government’s inability to address long-standing weaknesses in the energy grid.

As temperatures drop and frustrations rise, the government's vague reassurances and temporary measures offer little comfort to citizens enduring yet another season of misery while at least one third of Iranians are now living below the poverty line amid the country's economic disaster.