Israel targets Iranian tunnels in Syria as talks exclude Tehran

Compared to the same date last year, when the dollar was valued at 505,000 rials, the current rate represents a staggering 48% rise.

The rial began trading below 740,000 to the dollar on Saturday morning but surged above 750,000 rials by noon.

The euro reached almost 800,000 rials, while the British pound was trading at 950,000 rials. Almost all other major currencies and currencies of neighboring countries also rose against the rial, including the afghani.

One notable shock to the currency market came on November 6, when the dollar initially jumped past 700,000 rials following the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. But the currency had begun its decline in September after serious blows by Israel against Iran's main regional proxy, Hezbollah and an Israeli air strike that destroyed most of Iran's air defenses.

However, authorities temporarily stabilized the rate below the 700,000 thresholds, most likely by selling foreign currencies to support the rial.

The downward trend resumed later that month after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors issued a resolution critical of Tehran for its nuclear program which has breached international regulations, producing 60% enriched uranium as Iran edges ever closer to nuclear weapons capability.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria last week came as a new shock to the rial, which fell to new lows several times in recent days.

The rial has faced significant volatility throughout the year, influenced by volatility in the region and direct conflict between Iran and Israel.

Iran’s reliance on oil and gas exports for foreign currency earnings has made the country particularly vulnerable to international sanctions. Under Joe Biden’s presidency, sanctions enforcement eased somewhat, offering Tehran a lifeline. But the return of Donald Trump to the White House, combined with Europe’s increasingly tough stance to crack down on Iran's nuclear program, foreshadows greater economic strain for the Islamic Republic.

Inflation in Iran already exceeds 40%, and the rial’s devaluation will exacerbate price hikes, further eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians.

Tens of millions have faced declining living standards over the past five years, with wages lagging behind inflation and around one third of the population now living below the poverty line.

The average worker who was earning almost $200 per month earlier this year is now getting the equivalent of $150 or less, while official data suggests that $500 is the bare minimum required to meet basic needs.

As the dollar’s rise continues, the impact on daily life for Iranians grows more severe. Essential goods and services, already out of reach for many, are likely to see further price increases, deepening economic hardship and fueling public discontent.

IHR noted that the charge of collaborating with Israel against 26-year-old Shayesteh, who was arrested last year, was based on confessions obtained under torture and used to expedite his death sentence. The human rights group emphasized the lack of evidence in the case, pointing out that "an empty handgun magazine" and "a pepper spray" were presented as proof of "possession of illegal weapons" to support the charge of "collaboration with the enemy."

"The Islamic Republic is experiencing its greatest crises in its history and, to prevent public protests and cover up its regional failures, resorts to intimidation through the execution of defenseless prisoners," Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, Director of IHR, tweeted on Friday.

In recent months, Iranian authorities have escalated their use of the death penalty, with human rights groups reporting that over 42 political prisoners currently face the risk of execution.

According to a November 21 report by HRANA, at least 133 executions were documented in the past month alone, averaging more than four per day. This follows data from the Iran Human Rights Organization, which recorded at least 166 executions in October.

HRANA’s reports reveal an annual average of 811 executions between October 2023 and October 2024, encompassing both political detainees and ordinary prisoners.

This surge in executions coincides with rising tensions between Iran and Israel, with some suggesting that the government is leveraging geopolitical crises to distract from its domestic repression.

Mohammad Eslami attributed the decision to Iran’s growing uranium enrichment activities, describing the enhanced inspections as a natural consequence of the program's expansion.

“As the scale of nuclear activities grows, the level of inspections must also rise,” Eslami said, without elaborating on the specifics of the increased monitoring.

The development follows reports based on a confidential IAEA document, indicating that Iran had agreed to more frequent and rigorous inspections at the Fordow nuclear site.

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had significantly accelerated its uranium enrichment at levels of up to 60% purity—nearing the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material—at the Fordow facility. Western powers have labeled this development a highly serious escalation in their ongoing standoff with Iran over its nuclear program.

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency clarified that the increased monitoring pertains to the number of inspections rather than a larger deployment of inspectors.

In addition, Eslami acknowledged efforts to address two unresolved older cases related to undeclared nuclear materials.

"‌We will engage with the IAEA regarding the two remaining locations to close the cases."

The IAEA Board of Governors, however, remains troubled by the past discovery of undeclared nuclear materials at several sites and Iran’s failure to fully account for them.

Last month, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution urging Iran to enhance its cooperation with the agency. The resolution, proposed by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United States, expressed profound concern over Iran's insufficient cooperation and the unresolved safeguards issues, emphasizing the necessity for Iran to fulfill its legal obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently estimated that Iran possesses enough uranium enriched to 60% to potentially produce several nuclear bombs if the material were further enriched to 90%. This alarming threshold has intensified concerns among Western powers.

Eslami, however, pushed back against international criticism, accusing “certain entities, especially Israel, of fearmongering about Iran’s nuclear activities.”

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though officials have increasingly alluded to the potential pursuit of nuclear weapons in recent statements.

The heightened scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear program comes amid reports of attacks on its nuclear facilities, which Tehran has often attributed to Israel. Simultaneously, debates about preemptive military action against Iran have gained traction in the United States. A Wall Street Journal report on Friday said that members of President-elect Donald Trump’s team are considering military options to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including airstrikes.

In an interview with Time magazine, Trump, recently named Person of the Year, left open the possibility of military action, further stoking tensions. These discussions add to a growing sense of urgency as Iran’s enrichment activities continue and the IAEA demands greater transparency.

Kamran Ghazanfari, speaking at a conference on Thursday, said the Islamic Republic’s account was laughable and hinted at a deliberate assassination plot involving foreign powers.

“Everyone would laugh at the officials’ explanation that Raisi’s helicopter crashed due to weather conditions and dense clouds,” Ghazanfari added.

“What a smart dense cloud it must have been to specifically target the middle helicopter [out of three], which happened to be Raisi’s.”

Ghazanfari provided no evidence to support his accusation, which comes amid a turbulent political climate in Iran following its latest significant regional setbacks. The downfall of Syria's Bashar al-Assad in particular has rattled the Iranian government and its top leadership.

Ahmad Ardestani, a member of Parliament’s National Security Committee, previously speculated that Raisi’s death could be linked to the explosion of a pager he carried, referencing a string of coordinated blasts in September targeting Hezbollah communication devices in Lebanon and Syria.

The explosions, which left over 40 dead and caused numerous civilian casualties, were widely attributed to a sophisticated operation by Israel’s Mossad, though Israel officially denied involvement.

The US State Department also denied any connection to the helicopter crash, with spokesperson Matthew Miller confirming Tehran sought assistance in the crash aftermath but that logistical constraints prevented American involvement.

“We were asked for assistance by the Iranian government. We did make clear to them that we would offer assistance, as we would do in response to any request by a foreign government in this sort of situation,” Miller said in May.

“Ultimately, largely for logistical reasons, we were unable to provide that assistance.”

Leadership rivalries and theories of internal motive

Beyond accusations of foreign sabotage, some Iranians have speculated about internal political motives for Raisi’s death. Mehdi Nasiri, a former editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, pointed to potential rivalries surrounding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s succession.

Nasiri suggested Raisi’s helicopter crash might have been orchestrated by those seeking to bolster Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as his father’s successor.

“In the last session of the previous Assembly of Experts, representatives spoke about Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership, which was met with reactions from figures like Raisi and others,” Nasiri said.

He highlighted how Raisi’s death coincided with leadership changes within the Assembly, including the exclusion of key figures opposed to Mojtaba’s succession.

The death of Raisi, along with the assassination of figures such as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has fueled speculation about heightened foreign and domestic threats to Iranian leadership. Israel, while denying involvement in Raisi’s crash or other killings, has not shied away from targeting figures connected to Iran’s regional allies and nuclear program. An unnamed Israeli official told Reuters in May, “It wasn’t us.”

Despite these denials, figures like Ghazanfari continue to spotlight foreign interference as a likely cause of Raisi’s death, reflecting the tensions that define Iran’s complex relationships with its adversaries.

Mohammad Marandi, speaking about a possible US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, tweeted, “Slight problem. The US Al Udeid air base in is tiny Qatar. In case of aggression, the natural gas facilities and infrastructure in Qatar will be totally destroyed. Hence, there will be no natural gas from Doha. Hence, there will be no Qatar. Things won’t end there either…”

The post on X was apparently later deleted, but some websites in Tehran had republished the text of the tweet.

Marandi's remarks are surprising given Doha's close relations with Tehran and its mediating role between Iran and Western countries.

Although Tehran’s government media did not report about the tweet, some semi-independent websites simply reported it.

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a prominent foreign policy expert and former senior lawmaker known for his critical stance on foreign policy issues, responded with his own tweet refraining from naming Marandi.

“...and this time, a threat to attack #Qatar.
For years, a dangerous faction has been undermining opportunities for de-escalation and lifting sanctions on Iran, while simultaneously pushing to make the country's foreign policy self-destructive.”

In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting disruption in Europe’s energy supplies, Marandi opposed reaching a nuclear deal with the West. He argued that as Europe faced a harsh winter, it would ultimately capitulate to Iran’s demands. Eighteen months of multilateral negotiations collapsed in September of that year.

Now, two years later, Iran is facing a severe energy crisis. Decades of underinvestment have significantly reduced natural gas production and electricity supplies, resulting in widespread blackouts across the country. While internal mismanagement has played a role, US sanctions are widely regarded as a key factor behind the deterioration of Iran’s infrastructure.