Iran downplays Aleppo losses, vows continued support for Assad
Iranian officials have downplayed the capture of Aleppo by Syrian opposition forces, framing the loss as a minor setback while doubling down on their support for Bashar al-Assad.
Iranian officials have downplayed the capture of Aleppo by Syrian opposition forces, framing the loss as a minor setback while doubling down on their support for Bashar al-Assad.
The swift capture of Syria’s second-largest city by opposition groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has dealt a blow to Iranian-backed forces and raised questions about Tehran’s long-term strategy in the region.
Commander Hossein Daghighi, an advisor to the IRGC, vowed retaliation, saying, "The enemy is incapable of taking any effective action, as the resistance networks have been systematically organized.”
His remarks coincided with reports by opposition forces indicating that Assad's forces and his allies have been in retreat from their position around Aleppo.
“Their attempts to meddle in Syria will result in their hand being decisively severed, leaving a mark on history that will not be forgotten," Daghighi said on Saturday.
Another Iranian official commented, “The enemy has exploited the ceasefire conditions in Lebanon and seeks to plunge Syria into chaos.”
“I assure you that the enemies will fail as they have in the past," Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, said on Saturday.
Islamic Republic officials use the term "enemy" to refer to Israel or the United States.
Iranian state media also echoed this defiance, warning of repercussions for what they called a sedition. Despite such declarations, the rapid collapse of pro-Assad forces in Aleppo marks a challenge for Iran's Islamic government.
The fall of Aleppo comes after years of Iranian support for Assad’s military, including financial aid, weapons, and personnel from the IRGC and allied militias such as Hezbollah. These forces have propped up the Syrian regime in its efforts to reclaim territory since the civil war began in 2011. However, the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated the limits of Tehran’s capabilities that have weakened in recent months because of relentless Israel attacks against Hezbollah.
Opposition forces have exploited weaknesses in Assad’s overstretched troops, many of whom rely on Iranian support. Mustafa Abdul Jaber, a commander in the Jaish al-Izza opposition brigade in Syria, told Reuters that Iran’s focus on other fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon, has left gaps in its ability to defend Assad’s forces in Aleppo.
However, Iranian state media have also sought to downplay the implications of Aleppo’s loss, portraying it as part of a broader Western and Israeli plot to destabilize the region.
The Kayhan newspaper accused the US and its allies of reviving “takfiri terrorists” to pressure Iran to resume negotiations with the West over its nuclear dossier and disrupt its regional influence.
It claimed the goal was to sever vital communication links between Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Gaza.
"The Resistance Axes are the arms of Iran, our allies, and our friends. An attack on them is an attack on our capabilities. Over the past couple of days, during the war in Syria and Aleppo, several Iranians have been martyred. Therefore, the ultimate and primary target of this new war and the 'Aleppo sedition' is Iran."
Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, had earlier condemned the rebel offensive as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.
“According to the existing agreements among the three guarantor countries of the Astana Process (Iran, Turkey, and Russia), the outskirts of Aleppo and Idlib are considered de-escalation zones. Terrorist groups' attacks on these areas constitute a blatant violation of the Astana Process agreements and put the positive achievements of this process at serious risk,” said Baghaei on Thursday.
However, these statements fail to mask the broader setbacks Tehran is facing. The death of senior Iranian IRGC commander General Kioumars Pourhashemi during the Aleppo clashes underscores the high costs of Iran’s involvement in Syria.
Rouydad 24, a moderate Iranian news website, reported that the resurgence of Syria's civil war is linked to recent developments in Gaza and Lebanon.
It that from the perspective of the attackers and their strategists, the ceasefire in Lebanon and Hezbollah's commitment to the agreement, "Hamas's isolation in its uneven war with Israel," and Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine have created an opportunity to corner Bashar al-Assad and his political system.
“If successful, this opportunity could, on the one hand, secure Israel's security interests by limiting the Resistance Axis's ability to support Hezbollah and, consequently, Hamas, while also altering the foreign policy stance of Assad's political regime. On the other hand, it could force Damascus to accept demands pursued by Turkey and the United States through their occupation of parts of Syrian territory,” Jalal Khoshchehreh, an analyst wrote for Rouydad 24.
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Syria may be an overlooked player in Israel's regional contest with Iran, especially after a US-brokered ceasefire paused its fight Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.
But with Hezbollah nursing deep wounds from a 14-month war, the Iran-backed group's ability to continue buttressing Syria's beleaguered government may be in doubt, possibly accelerating Damascus's alignment with moderate Arab states.
“The story of Syria is going to become enormously significant because it cannot be detached from the story of Lebanon,” said Melamed.
Israeli forces last week announced they had carried out a series of airstrikes in Syria targeting what it called a Syrian-backed smuggling route for Iranian weapons bound for Hezbollah.
Islamist forces from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - designated a terrorist group by the United States - and allied rebel fighters launched a surprise offensive on Wednesday, capturing several towns and villages in northwest Aleppo province, a region controlled by Iran-backed President Bashar al-Assad.
The offensive has abruptly shaken up the conflict after years of relative military stalemate.
As a former Arab affairs advisor to the Israeli government and intelligence officer who specialized in the Arab world, Melamed has field experience and insight into regional trends.
“The Assad regime in Syria is a very significant component in this whole structure that the Mullah regime [Iran] has been building, known as the axis of resistance,” he added.
The Axis of Resistance is an Iran-led coalition in the Middle East, comprising of both Sunni and Shia Muslim groups and governments in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq. The network includes Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad’s government, the Houthis of Yemen and armed militia in Syria and Iraq.
What happens to the Axis of Resistance after the ceasefire?
Hezbollah operatives supported Assad during the years-long Syrian civil war that began in 2011 and continues today in sporadic pockets in Northern Syria.
Rebels in Northern Syria launched their unexpected offensive after the blows Iran’s proxies faced from Israel in recent months. Aleppo has been controlled by Bashar Al-Assad, the president of Syria who has been backed pro-Iranian militias and military advisors since 2016.
Turkey controls parts of Northern Syria and exercises a large measure of influence on Syrian rebel forces.
The anti-government rebels may seek to capitalize on the weaknesses of the Iranian axis, with a vacuum left by a weakened Hezbollah.
The rebels said the offensive was launched to deter the Syrian government and Iran-backed proxies. It also killed a senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iranian state media reported that Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi was killed in Aleppo during an overnight attack Thursday by Islamist forces opposed to the Syrian government.
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News said he was killed by “Takfiri terrorists,” a term widely used in Shiite-majority Iran to refer to jihadists or supporters of radical Sunni Islam.
Amid a backdrop in fighting and shifting alliances, Assad could seek to distance himself from Iran and the axis of resistance.
"I think that would be a very interesting and very significant to follow what will happen with the Assad regime and the way that it will maneuver down the road, giving to this reconfiguration of the landscape of the region," said Melamed.
Melamed said such a move could signify something much greater, one that is set to impact the stability of the axis, geopolitical alliances, and limit just how much Iran influences the region at large.
“One interesting thing is to see that for the last year, and particularly against the background of the Israeli-Hezbollah collision and the Israeli-Iran collision, Assad totally remained on the sidelines. He didn't say anything,” said Melamed.
In addition to staying quiet during Iran’s conflicts with Israel, Assad did not attend the funeral of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash in May of this year.
Assad understands that there’s a shift in power, according to Melamed who referred to him as a shrewd, cynical politician.
“Assad is trying to see where exactly he could benefit the best in this re-configuration of this region,” he added.
The Syrian leader was reinstated in the Arab League in May 2023 after his nation was suspended for more than 10 years.
There is little chance of Saudi and Persian Gulf nations providing financial aid to Damascus amid its economic struggles due to Syria’s relationship with Iran in the axis of resistance, said Melamed.
Iran, Russia and Hezbollah were key supporters of Assad during the civil war, and injected billions of dollars to help save his leadership - money that Melamed said Syria cannot afford to pay Iran back.
Israeli strikes in Syria amid ceasefire
The Iran-backed axis developed what they describe as a unity of fronts strategy to engulf Israel, and Syria is a key component of that alliance. But that could soon change if Assad shifts allegiances.
Hezbollah provided a critical boost to Syrian forces against the original rebel uprising and still operates there, with the Israeli military saying the group’s elite unit 4400 transfers Iranian weapons to Lebanon under the oversight of Syria's Military Security.
Melamed said frequent Israeli air strikes on Iran-controlled forces and bases in Syria will not stop even after the recent ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since 2017, Israel has conducted hundreds of air strikes to contain Iran's presence and shipment of arms to Hezbollah.
The Israeli military announced in a press conference Wednesday that they would continue to prevent weapons delivers to Hezbollah both in Lebanon and Syria. Recent strikes, it said, served as a warning to Damascus that the Jewish state will stop the Iran-backed militia from rearming.
“We struck on Syrian soil all attempts to transfer weapons to Hezbollah. If we detect intentions to transfer weapons to the organization — we will act,” IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in Wednesday’s press conference.
The US-brokered ceasefire stipulates that the Lebanese army will control and monitor the country’s border crossings to prevent unauthorized arms entries. It also has the power to confiscate weapons it finds in the area south of the Litani River near the de-facto border between the two nations.
“One of the articles (of the ceasefire) basically says that Israel has the right to continue and to intercept the shipments of armament to Lebanon,” said Melamed on the Eye for Iran podcast.
To watch the full Eye for Iran episode featuring Avi Melamed, the CEO of Inside the Middle East Intelligence Perspectives, on YouTube. Or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.