Iran International
Iran is technically capable of building a nuclear bomb and the diplomatic impasse over its disputed program could end in a "path of increased military action," including military escalation either by Iran or Israel, a top former UN weapons inspector told Iran International.
Speaking on the Eye for Iran podcast, David Albright said Iran or Israel may accidentally or deliberately engage in such an armed showdown. "Maybe Iran would target Tel Aviv. We know it can hit Tel Aviv and then Israel responds. I think it is a very dangerous time."
If both Iran and Israel feel threatened, then Iran's dash for a bomb and the chance of military confrontation seems more likely than ever, said Albright.
The former UN atomic inspector said Iran’s nuclear program is shrouded in secrecy and that the current measures in place do little to detect suspicious activity.
It would take a week or less for Iran to make enough weapon-grade uranium for a bomb, Albright said. It would take six months to make a weaponized nuclear warhead.
“I feel very, very worried about what’s going to take place in the future,” said Albright.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has grappled with Iran’s lack of cooperation and secrecy for more than two decades. In the past they have found uranium at locations that had not been declared, have been denied access to nuclear sites and faced official resistance to accrediting inspectors.
But the issue of secrecy and the findings of deep underground nuclear facilities that were previously undeclared like Fordow is much more complex and potentially dangerous, Albright told Iran International.
Iranian nuclear decision-makers are not only keeping secrets from the UN’s nuclear watchdog but also hiding it from their own government officials, said Albright.
“The technical people are preparing to build a bomb and if they're going to build a bomb at SPND they want to make sure that it can be done secretly," Albright said, referring to the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Farsi based acronym, SPND, which plays a key role in Iran's nuclear program.
"There's no oversight. They can exclude people in the parliament, in other parts of the Ministry of Defense from knowing what they're doing.”
Iran’s parliament recently expanded the funding and military pursuit of SPND, exempting it from oversight. The complex was previously under the guidance of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear program before Israel allegedly assassinated him in Tehran with an AI-powered machine gun.
The SPND initiates projects to work on parts of the bomb, without any government approval, said Albright, who is the founder of the non-governmental Institute for Science and Internatinal Security (ISIS).
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. However, that’s not how Albright, Israel and the Western powers view it.
Out of 35 member countries on the IAEA's Board of Governors, 19 voted in favor of a censure resolution on Iran on Thursday, urging greater cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
Britain, France, and Germany – dubbed the E3 – said during the IAEA meeting in Vienna that the findings of Director General Rafael Grossi after his recent visit to Iran, were deeply concerning.
Grossi announced that the Islamic Republic had expanded its uranium stockpiles by 60 percent purity, which is just a short technical step away from nuclear weapons.
Thousands of centrifuges
In response to the IAEA censure, Iran said Friday that it is pursuing new advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges.
Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Iran would retaliate by activating thousands of centrifuges, not just hundreds.
Much like a previous censure in June of this year, the latest resolution repeats its demand that Iran provide explanations for undeclared uranium traces and mandates that IAEA analysts be allowed to take samples.
Albright said Biden’s approach to Iran was a failure. He said the E3 had to trick the US into a censure resolution in June because they were frustrated with the pace of the US.
The former UN inspector who has been warning about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and lack of cooperation for more than 20 years, said he has learned over these years that pressure works.
Albright is a physicist and one of the world's leading nuclear experts. He was one of very few experts in the field who warned to the George W. Bush administration that the intelligence he possessed on invading Iraq on the pretense of weapons of mass destruction was unreliable.
Sanctions will work
In his interview with Iran International, Albright said crippling Iran's economy, like targeting key revenue such as oil sales, will force Tehran to cooperate.
"People always say, sanctions don't have an impact. But if they don't have an impact, why is it every time a deal is brought up as a possibility, the first thing the regime says is you've got to the lift the sanctions," said Albright.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House, the open and direct strikes between Iran and Israel and the weakening of Iran’s deterrence power via depleted armed allies Hamas and Hezbollah put Iran in a vulnerable position.
With geopolitics in the area remaining volatile and the unpredictable and uncanny approach of president-elect Donald Trump to world politics, Albright said the state of play could rapidly change.
"Trump, you don't know what he's going to do. He sent out a signal recently that maybe he wants to make a deal," he said, apparently referring to an alleged meeting between Trump's close ally Elon Musk and Iran's UN envoy.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with David Albright on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Castbox or Amazon.
The Iranian constitution formally recognizes the right to peaceful assembly and demonstration. However, many of its provisions are disregarded by the government. Article 27 specifically permits public gatherings and marches, provided they are unarmed and do not contravene Islamic principles.
While supporters of the Islamic Republic can hold large rallies for causes like Palestine or religious and political events, ordinary citizens—such as students, workers, and teachers—are consistently denied permits. This allows the government to label their protests as “unauthorized” and crack down on participants with arrests.
Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told media in Tehran that while the government views the law positively, it is awaiting an "amendment" to guarantee the freedom to hold political protests—albeit "in a different way." While this appears promising, it adds ambiguity to a constitutional article that is otherwise clear and straightforward.
The reference, however, might pertain not to the constitution but to a law regulating political parties, which requires interior ministry approval for gatherings. This regulation has often been cited as a justification for banning demonstrations.
Iranian media have interpreted Mohajerani's statement as a sign that the government is preparing to address potential political protests. Authorities expect demonstrations, particularly in Tehran, following significant political or economic developments—or even major football matches.
Many Iranians took to social media, reporting a heavy military presence in Tehran as the country awaited a November 21 resolution by the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, against the Islamic Republic. The government likely feared the resolution could undermine its authority and embolden dissidents. However, no significant protests occurred. The heightened security may have simply been a show of force amid ongoing blackouts and rising prices.
Mohajerani, however, told the press that the Pezeshkian Administration recognizes the public's right to protest and that it is seriously looking forward to an amendment to be made in the law by the parliament. However, she did not say what was in the text of the law that needed revision.
Recently there have been more peaceful protests in front of the parliament as well as several other gatherings by pensioners and teachers who are unhappy about their delayed pay adjustment. Interestingly, while supporters of the government censorship of the internet staged two demonstrations without seeking anyone's permission, the Interior Minister said those who call for lifting the ban on social media will not be allowed to protest although they have applied for a permit.
Mohajerani stated that a bill addressing protests had been sent to the Majles for amendment by the previous administration under Raisi. However, the Rouhani administration before that had also sought to revise the law. Rouhani, whose abrupt fuel price hike in 2019 triggered widespread protests, had called for legislation to permit peaceful demonstrations after security forces killed hundreds of protesters and imprisoned many others.
While the Majles had previously refused to amend the law under both Raisi and Rouhani, it has now agreed to review it. This shift may be due to lawmakers' confidence that their decisions are unlikely to affect their electability, with the next election still three years away.
After the 2019 protests, the Rouhani administration proposed creating a Hyde Park-style venue in Tehran for peaceful demonstrations, but the plan was blocked by the Administrative Justice Court. Critics argue that successive governments only consider facilitating peaceful protests in the wake of major social unrest, abandoning such plans once the protests subside.
Some observers suggest that the delays in passing relevant legislation and the Interior Ministry's refusal to issue protest permits stem from the nature of slogans chanted during the 2019 and 2022 protests, which targeted Iran’s leadership and called for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.