Beleaguered Lebanese army set to play key role in any truce
Experts in Lebanon have called for international backing for the cash-strapped Lebanese Armed Forces if a ceasefire is to be sustained between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
Experts in Lebanon have called for international backing for the cash-strapped Lebanese Armed Forces if a ceasefire is to be sustained between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
While US envoy Amos Hochstein suggested a deal is within reach during his trip to Lebanon on Tuesday, the situation on the ground appears far more bleak.
“The army doesn’t even have money to put fuel in the patrol trucks,” said a senior Lebanese politician opposing Hezbollah. He spoke to Iran International on condition of anonymity after successive death threats from the group the US and others deem 'terrorist'.
“UNIFIL has no power militarily and it depends on the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces], but mostly, the LAF isn’t even able to patrol with UNIFIL, which is a huge reason the latest conflict has escalated to this degree," he told Iran International.
UN peacekeeping forces, UNIFIL, were stationed around southern Lebanon since 2006 under UN Resolution 1701 after the second Lebanon war between Hezbollah and Israel.
Though first created in 1978, following the crisis of 2006 crisis, the UN Security Council strengthened the mandate of UNIFIL, allowing them to "monitor the cessation of hostilities; accompany and support the Lebanese armed forces as they deploy throughout the south of Lebanon; and extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the voluntary and safe return of displaced persons".
However, the politician, who has held senior government positions, warned that without international funding and binding agreements, the LAF risks remaining a “toothless tiger,” as evidenced in recent years.
“The Lebanese economy is in collapse and the army has been one of the biggest losers, which of course, impacts the country’s security at the hands of Hezbollah which has infiltrated every institution and border areas," he said.
Though Israel has severely weakened Hezbollah since it stepped up its offensive in September, it has a barrage of firepower that continues to see dozens of projectiles fired into Israel daily.
In September, targeted air strikes saw Israel take out swathes of the group’s leadership as high as long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, while a two-day operation saw around 1,500 Hezbollah operatives taken out of action when pagers and walkie-talkies simultaneously exploded.
UN Resolution 1701 aimed to push Hezbollah north and disarm all armed groups in a designated area of southern Lebanon. However, this was never fully implemented, with both Hezbollah and Israel accused of violating the agreement. Additionally, other armed groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, continued to operate in the region.
Consisting of around 80,000 troops, the LAF has no air force and is not strong enough to take on either Hezbollah or an Israeli onslaught, its role being mostly limited to supporting civilians.
Andrew Fox, a former British paratrooper and fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said the weakness of the LAF will be a sticking point for any peace moving forward.
Speaking to Iran International he said: "A key issue with this proposed peace deal is the lack of preparation and capability of the Lebanese Army. Even if not sympathetic to Hezbollah, they are far less well armed and motivated."
With Hezbollah still stronger and harder to control, the LAF will need to be ready for a potential re-entry of the group into southern Lebanon if a deal really forces a retreat to north of the Litani River as was proposed previously.
"This will present them with a real issue," added Fox. "If the LAF attempt to police the ceasefire and are defeated in combat, where does this leave the peace deal? It is hard to see how anything will be enforced if the IDF does not have the oversight to be able to step back in and interdict Hezbollah, should they try to reinfiltrate the South."
If a ceasefire is put into place, the Lebanese army will be expected to deploy thousands of troops south in order to maintain peace. However, with Hezbollah still significantly more powerful and better funded by its patron, Iran, the process will not be easy.
"The Lebanese army is in a situation that is sensitive and difficult. It cannot practice normal missions like the armies of other countries because there is another military force in the country," retired Lebanese brigadier general Hassan Jouni told Reuters, referring to Hezbollah.
On Tuesday, LAF chief, General Joseph Aoun, presented proposals for the first phase of a deployment in the south, sharing the army’s needs in terms of armament, logistical and financial support.
In August, the Lebanese government, which is divided on sectarian lines amid years of crisis, issued “initial approval” for Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s proposal to recruit 1,500 new troops for the army, part of a plan prepared by the army to recruit 6,000 soldiers before developing a plan for its deployment.
Ultimately, the government will have to approve the exact nature of the deployment, but in the end, the question remains as to whether Hezbollah will respect its authority.
Hezbollah affiliated Al-Akhbar said there were still significant “knots” in the negotiations. Quoting informed sources, it said problems remained around borders, which it said was “the knot of knots”.
When did it start?
The first reports of Iran supplying drones to Russia emerged in July 2022. On July 11, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan revealed intelligence saying Iran was preparing to send several hundred drones to Russia, including those with combat capabilities.
“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” he told reporters.
By mid-October 2022, Ukrainian forces began identifying Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in Russian attacks, confirming their deployment in the conflict.
Sullivan’s statement marked a pivotal moment, as it was among the earliest public indications of this emerging military collaboration. The level of specificity in the intelligence, including remarks that Iran planned to send hundreds of drones, surprised many.
How many drones were supplied?
According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Iran has supplied Russia with up to 3,000 drones - primarily the Shahed-136 model - though the exact number remains uncertain.
“Estimates vary on how many Iranian drones Russia has acquired, ranging from 600 to more than 3,000. While this number might seem large, these munitions are often used in waves, so a supply of a few thousand can be depleted in a matter of days or weeks,” the CFR wrote in October 2022.
Russia’s drone manufacturing facility
In June 2023, US intelligence alleged Iran was aiding Russia in building a drone manufacturing facility in Yelabuga, within the Alabuga Special Economic Zone on the steppes of the Tatarstan region.
The plant focuses on producing Shahed-136 drones domestically, which Russia rebranded as the Geran-2. The collaboration aims to manufacture approximately 6,000 drones by mid-2025, ensuring a consistent supply for Russia's military needs.
Iran has provided the technical expertise, blueprints, and potentially key components for the Yelabuga plant.
This facility reflected a strategic shift, allowing Russia to bypass sanctions and reduce its dependency on direct imports from Iran.
The project, however, has faced challenges, including labor shortages and logistical hurdles, prompting Moscow to scramble for workers including from among African students in the country according to the Associated Press.
How does Russia use Iranian drones?
Russian forces utilize drones like the Shahed-136 for kamikaze strikes. It means that the drones crash into fixed targets, delivering explosive payloads to damage energy grids, command centers, and supply depots.
The drone swarms are also deployed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, forcing them to expend costly missiles on relatively inexpensive UAVs.
Their frequent use, particularly in nighttime attacks, creates fear among civilians and military personnel.
Iranian drones rely on GPS-guided navigation rather than first-person view (FPV) systems. This makes them cost-effective weapons but limits their adaptability to dynamic combat scenarios. Their payload capacity of approximately 40-50 kilograms and range of up to 2,500 kilometers enable strikes deep into Ukrainian territory.
Russia strategically uses drones to deplete resources, meaning drone swarms force Ukraine to expend high-value air defense missiles. Once defenses are exhausted, more advanced missile systems can reach their targets with fewer losses.
The drones also help map Ukrainian air defenses, revealing gaps for exploitation.
These tactics underscore the drones' dual role as both offensive weapons and tools for battlefield intelligence.
Efficiency and cost
Iranian drones like the Shahed-136 are considered cost-effective. Production costs range from $20,000 to $50,000 per unit, significantly cheaper than most precision-guided missiles. However, foreign buyers such as Russia pay far more—up to $290,000 per drone in smaller shipments. This pricing discrepancy reflects the added value of technology transfer and production rights.
The Shahed-136 relies on GPS for navigation, making it vulnerable to jamming. Pre-programmed flight paths limit their adaptability to dynamic combat scenarios and Ukrainian forces have increasingly intercepted these drones using advanced air defense systems, electronic jamming, and counter-drone measures.
While the exact terms of compensation remain unclear, reports suggest that Russia has made payments in cash, gold, and possibly other forms of material exchange.
In November 2022, Sky News reported that Moscow transferred €140 million in cash and captured Western weapons to Iran.
International repercussions
Iran's drone exports to Russia have drawn widespread condemnation and punitive measures, mostly from the United States and its European allies.
The US Treasury Department has sanctioned several entities involved in the production and export of Iranian drones, including Shahed Aviation Industries. Additional restrictions target logistics networks facilitating the transport of drones to Russia.
The EU has also imposed similar sanctions, focusing on Iran's drone manufacturers and individuals linked to their deployment in Ukraine. Travel bans and asset freezes have been applied to Iranian officials and companies overseeing these operations.
The controversy has led Ukraine to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Tehran of complicity in Russian war crimes, while Western nations have sought to hold Iran accountable for violating arms embargoes under United Nations resolutions.
By supplying advanced UAVs and aiding domestic production, Tehran has bolstered Moscow’s capabilities in its war in Ukraine. However, the partnership has also drawn intense scrutiny, resulting in stepped-up international sanctions and heightened tensions between Iran and Western nations.