Trump's security and defense chiefs pose tangible threat to Tehran

Speaking briefly to reporters on the sidelines of the weekly cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Masoud Pezeshkian said, “Since our [fuel] reserves are low and we may face problems in the winter, we have to adjust the reserves of power plants now to avoid future problems. If we don't think about this now, we might face a significant risk in the winter.”

After enduring summer blackouts from surging electricity demand, Iran now faces a natural gas shortage that could disrupt winter power supplies. With dwindling options, the administration launched a controversial plan to either impose blackouts or turn to mazut for power plants, a pollutant-heavy fuel source that risks further air pollution. However, officials have confirmed that there are also shortages of mazut and diesel.

Iran holds the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, yet US sanctions have hindered its extraction efforts by restricting investments and access to advanced technology. As a result, Iran's gas production is gradually declining.

This week, electricity distribution companies in Tehran and other provinces started scheduled outages from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. as part of a government strategy to conserve fuel.

According to electricity distribution company managers in various regions of Iran, during the specified hours, electricity will be cut off to all commercial and residential centers, including gas stations, banks, and government offices. The energy shortages have placed Iran’s industrial sector under strain too, as frequent blackouts disrupt production and increase costs.

Also on Wednesday, Hashem Oraei said that the energy crisis is even more severe this year, explaining that the country cannot even supply the needed mazut or diesel to power plants.

“We always give mazut and diesel to power plants during peak cold seasons instead of natural gas. This year, due to the ongoing shortages, we've reached a point where we can't even provide the necessary gas for power plants.”

Earlier in November, the government issued a directive to halt mazut burning at major plants in Arak, Karaj, and Isfahan, hoping to reduce health hazards in densely populated areas. Yet, with mazut still being used in other parts of the country, concerns persist about air quality and its impact on public health.

Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad also said on Wednesday that the country has made plans to sustain its oil production and export and is ready for possible oil export restrictions from a Trump administration.

In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with Iran and re-imposed sanctions which hurt the country’s oil sector, with oil exports dropping to record lows and production to about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) during his presidency.

"Required measures have been taken. I will not go into detail but our colleagues within the oil sector have taken measures to deal with the restrictions that will occur and there is no reason to be concerned," Paknejad said.

According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, of which Iran is a member, Iranian oil production has rebounded to around 3.2 million barrels per day in recent years.

Iranian oil exports have climbed this year to near multi-year highs of 1.7 million bpd despite US sanctions. Small Chinese refiners buy most of its supply. Beijing says it doesn't recognize unilateral US sanctions.

Iran has the world's second largest natural gas reserves but years of negligence to invest in the gas fields and Western sanctions have reduced production.

With around 80% of Iran’s electricity derived from thermal power plants reliant on gas, the administration faces mounting pressure to address what experts say is a systemic fuel shortages.

The criticisms come amid mounting crises: the country faces intermittent blackouts due to fuel shortages; protests by teachers, pensioners, and others fill major city streets daily; the parliament has admitted the Social Security Organization is bankrupt; the stock exchange experiences near-weekly crashes; the currency is at a historic low; and a winter fuel shortage looms as Turkmenistan has halted natural gas sales to Iran, citing unpaid bills.

One analyst remarked, "Pezeshkian promised improvement, but so far, things have only deteriorated." Seasoned politician Ali Larijani echoed this sentiment, noting that beyond issues like electricity, gasoline, natural gas, water, medicine, and bus shortages—as well as employment and education challenges—the budget deficit is as severe as it was during the critical days of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war.

Iranian journalists report that the government is framing its inability to supply electricity to households and industries as an "achievement" in environmental protection. Officials claim that blackouts are due to the shutdown of certain power plants to prevent the use of highly polluting fuels. Another journalist cautioned the government that propaganda on state media cannot resolve the country's problems and shortages.

Some conservative critics suggest that, given Pezeshkian and his government’s lack of progress over the past 100 days, any assessment of their capabilities should be postponed for another six months. Conservative MP Mohammad Saleh Jokar highlighted Pezeshkian's failure to address economic issues and lift Internet restrictions, stating, "What we have seen so far is nothing but slogans."

Jokar alleged that Pezeshkian has spent most of the past 100 days on appointments. He warned the government that the people are closely monitoring their performance.

Several conservative MPs criticized Pezeshkian's budget bill, saying it falls short of public expectations for improved living conditions. They also pointed out a lack of alignment between the budget’s resources and the government’s expenditures.

MP Mohammad Saleh Jokar remarked that, while the government claims to be in an "economic war," its current bureaucratic structure hinders any real progress.

Criticism of Pezeshkian's performance extends beyond conservative circles. Reformist commentator and political activist Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in Ham Mihan daily, "Reviewing his first 100 days, one cannot call his performance brilliant, but he wasn’t a total failure either." Zeidabadi suggested that "more than anything, Pezeshkian needs balance."

Speaking about the much-criticized appointments in the government, Zeidabadi criticized the inclusion of hardliners as top officials in a government that supposed to bring change.

Pezeshkian has called his policy of appointments “national reconciliation,” but in effect it is nothing more than political horse trading between factions.

Referring to international tensions and crises over the past 100 days, Zeidabadi noted that “Pezeshkian has faced unprecedented bad luck,” possibly alluding to heightened confrontations with Israel and the severe setbacks experienced by Tehran's proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.

Centrist politician Mohsen Hashemi offered a sharp critique of Pezeshkian, stating, "The country’s situation remains largely unchanged. There’s no noticeable shift in the government’s decisions or performance."

Hashemi also criticized Pezeshkian’s approach to national reconciliation, arguing, "National reconciliation isn’t about distributing government positions; it should mean seeking acceptable shared solutions to address the country’s crises, especially the pressing issue of livelihoods."

He added that not only has Pezeshkian failed to uphold his promise to lift internet restrictions, but his government also lacks a clear plan or timeline for this initiative. Furthermore, Hashemi accused Pezeshkian of maintaining the previous administration’s entire security sector, despite pledges for change.

The US military announced, “Today, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage and logistics headquarters facility. These strikes were in response to a rocket attack on U.S. personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi.”

Although the US has occasionally targeted Iranian-backed militia units in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, strikes on two consecutive days has been less common.

Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen also announced on Sunday that the US and Britain launched raids on the Yemeni capital Sanaa, the Amran governorate and other areas. Houthis have been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea region for the past one year, crippling free navigation. They have also occasionally fired on US and allied naval forces.

The US airstrikes follow the Pentagon’s recent deployment of additional naval and air assets to the Middle East, including B-52 heavy bombers stationed in the Persian Gulf. This escalation aligns with rising military tensions between Iran and Israel shortly before the US presidential election and the upcoming “lame-duck” period for the Biden administration.

CENTCOM said in its statement that the latest air attack in Syria “will degrade the Iranian backed groups’ ability to plan and launch future attacks on U.S. and Coalition forces who are in the region to conduct D-ISIS operations.”

The statement also quoted CENTCOM commander, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla saying, “We have made it clear that attacks on U.S. personnel, partner forces and facilities will not be tolerated and that we retain the right to defend ourselves. U.S. Central Command, alongside our regional partners, will aggressively pursue any threat to US forces, allies, partners, and security in the region.”

Iran’s first counseling clinic explicitly dedicated to promoting mandatory hijab laws will provide "scientific and psychological treatment for hijab removal," said Mehri Talebi Darestani, the woman due to oversee the facility.

“The establishment of this center will be for the scientific and psychological treatment of removing the hijab, specifically for the teenage generation, young adults, and women seeking social and Islamic identity and visiting this center is optional," she added.

The wording of the clinic's mission statement closely resembles that of substance abuse facilities. Prominent activists and human rights advocates have condemned official attempts to pathologize opposition to the hijab.

A university student who stripped in apparent protest at harsh treatment by dress code enforcers was detained and sent for mental health treatment, officials said this month. Authorities have frequently described as insane proponents of the country’s Woman, Life, Freedom anti-hijab movement, which was sparked by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of morality police.

A controversial leader at the helm

Darestani's office is part of Iran's Headquarters for Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the body is responsible for defining and enforcing strict religious standards in society, particularly women's dress.

It is led by a man, Mohammed Saleh Hashemi Golpayegani, a direct appointee of appointed by Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

Talebi Darestani said that the clinic responds to visits by women and families pressured into non-compliance with hijab laws, adding that the project aligns with a roadmap for promoting “dignity, modesty, chastity, and hijab.”

A focus of controversy in the past, Talebi Darastani has supported and promoted child marriage on state television.

Previously the head of the Ministry of Labor's Inspection Center, she was dismissed from that post in 2023 under unclear circumstances, fueling debate over her recent appointment to her new hijab enforcement role.

Responses and growing tensions over hijab enforcement

Recent public reactions to the clinic show persistent tensions surrounding hijab enforcement. A widely publicized incident last month at the Islamic Azad University’s in Tehran brought the issue back into the global spotlight.

In protest against enforcement measures on campus, a female student named Ahoo Daryaei, removed her clothing in defiance of security staff intervening over her hijab.

Daryaei was transferred to a psychological center shortly after her arrest, drawing accusations from activists that the government is attempting to undermine her protest by portraying her actions as mentally aberrant.

This practice of publicly gaslighting protestors has been seen by critics as a deliberate strategy to delegitimize dissent.

Iranian authorities have increasingly utilized mental health institutions to manage dissent, a method condemned by human rights advocates as psychologically abusive and manipulative.

Following the 2022 protests, artists who posted images of themselves without a hijab, including actresses like Afsaneh Bayegan, Azadeh Samadi, and Leila Bolukat, received court-ordered mandates for weekly visits to psychological centers for mental health certificates in response to their conduct.

The ethical debate over state involvement in psychiatry

Iran’s psychiatric and psychological community has responded critically to the state’s perceived manipulation of mental health diagnoses to silence opposition.

In 2023, four Iranian psychiatric associations issued a joint statement condemning the government’s use of non-scientific diagnoses such as anti-family personality disorder as a pretext for punishing hijab protestors.

The statement decried the practice as a violation of professional ethics, highlighting specific principles from Iran’s Professional Ethics Charter for Psychiatry, which has been in place since 2015.

This charter explicitly prohibits psychiatric professionals from engaging in discriminatory actions against individuals based on religious, ethnic, or gender identities.

Clause six of the charter warns against discrimination, while clause seven emphasizes the importance of shielding mental health practice from unqualified or politically motivated interventions.

A shift in leadership without policy reform

Despite President Masoud Pezeshkian’s assurances during his campaign to ease the hijab mandate, programs like the Clinic for Quitting Hijab Removal may reflect an inability to challenge conservative factions and enact promised reforms.

The persistence of hijab enforcement measures under Pezeshkian’s administration has sparked questions regarding his influence over Iran’s religious institutions and highlights the struggle to balance public sentiment with ideological mandates.

With mounting international scrutiny and domestic resistance, the efforts to reframe and manage public dissent through psychiatry are likely to fuel further controversy over Iran’s approach to human rights and individual freedoms.

“The Iranian administration must understand that the international situation is becoming increasingly tense,” Rafael Grossi said in an interview with AFP, “and that it is imperative to find ways to reach diplomatic solutions.”

Speaking on the sidelines of the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Grossi was due to travel to Tehran as tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic mount and the hawkish new administration of President-elect Donald Trump begins to take shape.

The IAEA, tasked with monitoring Iran's nuclear activities, has access to inspect Iranian facility, but Grossi said, "we need to see more." Citing the scale and ambition of Iran’s nuclear program, he called for increased transparency, adding "we need to find ways of giving the agency more visibility."

Grossi’s trip follows the recent US presidential election, which saw former president Donald Trump, known for withdrawing from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, return to office.

“I already worked with the first Trump administration, and we worked well together,” he said.

The original 2015 nuclear accord, brokered between Iran and six major powers—including the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany—aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for easing economic sanctions.

However, Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 led to its unraveling, despite efforts to revive it in recent years. "It’s an empty shell," Grossi said of the current state of the deal.

In the absence of a binding agreement, Iran’s nuclear program has expanded. The IAEA reports that Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile has grown, with enrichment levels reaching 60 percent—approaching the 90 percent threshold required for weaponization. Tehran, however, denies any intention of developing nuclear arms.

Since taking office in August, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has indicated a willingness to revisit diplomatic discussions surrounding the nuclear deal.

Grossi expressed cautious optimism about this overture. In a separate conversation with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, he talked about Iran's continued verbal commitment to diplomacy, even as he referred to the lack of significant changes in Tehran’s actions.

“They have a big, big nuclear program,” Grossi told Amanpour. “They have a lot of nuclear materials that could be used eventually to make a nuclear weapon… And this is one of the reasons I’m heading to Tehran.”

He added that the IAEA's focus remains on diplomatic, strong solutions to prevent the situation from deteriorating further, particularly in light of potential responses from regional actors like Israel.

Grossi’s last visit to Iran, which took place in May, included a tour of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan province. At the time, he urged Iranian officials to implement concrete measures to address international concerns about their nuclear program.

As Grossi heads back to Tehran, he seeks substantive progress with Iran’s leadership. “I’m hoping I’ll be able to plunge straight into the most important matters,” Grossi said, adding that while Iran’s administration has signaled an interest in re-engaging, meaningful action will be essential.

With diplomatic paths narrowing, Grossi’s visit may mark a critical juncture in efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reduce the risk of broader conflict in the region.