Trump's pick of a pro-Israel team signals trouble for Tehran

A government directive mandates daily electricity cuts of at least two to three hours in numerous regions and provinces. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has attributed the shutdown of three power plants—in Isfahan, Arak, and Karaj—to an acute natural gas shortage and pollution concerns from burning mazut (fuel oil) as a substitute. However, Ministry of Energy data reveals that the primary cause is a shortage of all fuel types, including mazut, diesel, and natural gas.

Thermal power plants in Iran account for 95% of the country’s electricity generation and require a daily supply of 280 million cubic meters of gas or an equivalent of 225 million liters of mazut and diesel.

Until two years ago, Iran experienced gas shortages primarily in winter, but now it faces an increasing gas deficit in all seasons. In spring and summer of this year, gas accounted for 86% of the fuel used in power plants, a decrease from 94% during the same period last year.

Ministry of Energy data shows that despite earlier increases this year of 50% in mazut supply and 26% in diesel supply to power plants, liquid fuel reserves dropped to 42% by early autumn. This decline is due to a 100% surge in mazut consumption and an 80% rise in diesel use at power plants since the start of the Iranian calendar year on March 21.

Iranian mazut contains 3.5% sulfur, seven times the international standard for marine fuel. The quality and sulfur content of diesel in Iran also exceed Euro 4 standards.

The Iranian Parliament Research Center reports that Iran faced a daily gas shortage of 150 million cubic meters during the spring and summer, a figure that could rise to 300 million cubic meters per day this winter.

Iran holds the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia and ranks as the fourth-largest producer. However, the lack of renewable energy development, extensive energy waste, particularly in gas, and the low efficiency of power plants have led the country into a gas deficit.

Meanwhile, data from BP shows that while Iran’s annual gas production growth exceeded 5% over the past decade, it has slowed to 2% in the past three years. Last year, Iran produced about 260 billion cubic meters of gas, with 12 billion cubic meters exported to Turkey and Iraq.

Iran’s mazut situation

Reports from tanker tracking companies also indicate a sharp decline in Iran's mazut exports, highlighting the surge in domestic consumption of this highly polluting fuel.

Until a few years ago, Iran was exporting an average of 400,000 barrels of mazut daily. However, this figure dropped to 220,000 barrels last year.

The main customers for Iranian mazut are China and the UAE. Calculations by Iran International, citing data from Vortexa, Kpler, and the United Against Nuclear Iran(UANI), an advocacy group, indicate that during the first 10 months of this year, Iran exported an average of 70,000 barrels of mazut daily to China and 60,000 barrels to the UAE.

In other words, Iran's mazut exports have halved compared to last year and dropped to a third of their level in 2021. Data from the Ministry of Energy shows that Iran consumed 8 billion liters of mazut in power plants last year, in addition to double this amount of diesel in power generation sector.

Iran's gas exports

Data from BP reveals that Iran exported 12 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and Iraq last year, consistent with official data from both Turkey and Iran. While no report on Iran’s total gas exports for the current year is yet available, official data from Turkey indicates that it imported 4.2 billion cubic meters of gas from Iran in the first eight months of this year—an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period last year.

In its budget draft for the coming year, the Iranian government has forecasted gas exports of 16 billion cubic meters, valued at $5.2 billion. If Iran were to consume this amount of gas domestically in power plants instead of exporting it, it would reduce the need for 16 billion liters of mazut and diesel—equivalent to approximately $8 billion in international market value.

In simple terms, redirecting exportable gas to domestic power plants could reduce pollution and save Iran an additional $3 billion. However, Iran continues to prioritize gas exports, likely to sustain Iraq and Turkey's dependency or to secure its export markets. Recently, Iran also filed a lawsuit against Pakistan in the International Court of Justice over delayed gas imports.

According to an existing contract, Pakistan was to begin purchasing 7 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas annually starting in 2015. However, it claims that concerns over U.S. sanctions have prevented it from moving forward with the imports.

Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich said he can predict what’s next by examining the history of strikes between Iran and Israel.

One thing is certain: the next round will escalate further, with more missiles and greater complexity—a safe assumption, he added.

“They are never going back. The volume becomes much higher than before. Just look at the last the two events with Iran, April 14th and October 1st. April 14th there were 110 ballistic missiles. In October we found ourselves with almost 200 missiles, double that,” said Haimovich.

He referred to this as the formula based on his background in the Israeli military. He held a senior command in 2018 of the Juniper-Cobra joint exercise between Israeli and US Forces.

Patrick Clawson, a Research Counselor at The Washington Institute, told Iran International neither Israel nor Iran wants a full-scale war, but each is determined to show it can inflict sufficient damage to cause on side to pause.

But in doing that, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over Israel’s strikes in Iran.

“The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front," Khamenei said on November 2.

While things could only get worse, Haimovich believes at some point, this will end, but the million-dollar question is what will stop one side.

“Somebody will stop somewhere in the future. The question is to what will force them to stop,” he lamented.

External pressure could be one factor.

The transition period over the next couple of months to incoming President Donald Trump will be crucial—a sensitive time for Israel and Iran, during which major decisions are unlikely, Haimovich said.

“For one side, it's very sensitive and the other side, it's a very dangerous time to take decisions.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that he recently spoke three times with US President-elect Donald Trump, emphasizing that they share a common view on Iran, seeing “eye to eye on the Iranian threat.”

Beyond the US, other external factors in the Middle East could influence the duration and intensity of direct strikes between Iran and Israel.

Leaders from the Arab and Muslim world met in Riyadh on Monday for a summit focused on the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with Iran and Trump on their minds.

Saudia Arabia had been on the verge of formalizing relations with Israel, but October 7 and the ensuing wars in Gaza and Lebanon negatively impacted that prospect. The Kingdom has recently found itself warming up to Tehran.

“We call on the international community to compel Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty and not to attack its territory,” the Saudi King told those attending the summit.

Israel has several fronts to the war that has been raging for more than a year. The longer that goes on, the more complex it becomes and the more difficult to de-escalate, said Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich.

The former Commander of the Israeli Air Force told Iran International that all roads lead back to the Islamic Republic. "What does Israel have with the Houthis in Yemen or the militias in Iraq? Nothing."

He said Iran’s stated goal of destroying Israel is exactly why they have influence in Syria and Iraq and formed proxies just at the border with the Jewish State.

The dangerous tit for tat between the two foes is not sustainable but Israel may switch gears from other war fronts to focus their attention on Iran and its nuclear program, according to Haimovich.

Israel’s new defense minister Israel Katz has said Iran’s nuclear sites are more vulnerable than ever after Israel’s airstrikes on its air defense sites last month.

“Iran today is more exposed than ever to damage to its nuclear facilities. There is a possibility to achieve the most important goal, to thwart and remove the threat of annihilation from hanging over the State of Israel,” said Katz.

According to the statement, the strikes targeted two specific locations in Syria and were a response to multiple attacks on US personnel within the previous 24 hours.

The US has periodically launched strikes against Iranian-linked targets in Iraq and Syria, after they launch arracks against US targets in Syria or Iraq. Earlier this year in February, the US carried out airstrikes on more than 85 sites connected to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and its allied militias, following a fatal attack on US forces. After the US strike, attacks by Iran-backed forces that had surged to 200 incidents since October 2023, stopped for a long period.

“These strikes will reduce the ability of Iranian-backed groups to plan and carry out future attacks on U.S. and Coalition forces,” the US military stated regarding the recent action.

Currently, the US has approximately 900 troops stationed in Syria and an additional 2,500 in Iraq, primarily tasked with advising and supporting local forces to prevent a resurgence of ISIS, which once held large territories across both countries before being defeated.

Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, the US has deployed warships and fighter jets to the region as a deterrent to Iran and its affiliated groups. Additionally, US forces have assisted in intercepting projectiles launched by Iran toward Israel this year. Tehran has also threatened to launch a third ballistic missile attack against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli air strike last month targeting military sites within Iran.

The Israeli air raids last month knocked out Iran's last three Russian-provided S-300 air defense missile systems, Fox News reported on October 30 citing US and Israeli officials. The surface-to-air S-300s were the last in the Islamic Republic's arsenal after one was destroyed in an attack in April also likely carried out by Israel.

“Iran today is more exposed than ever to damage to its nuclear facilities," Defense Minister Israel Katz said.

In late October, US President Joe Biden's adviser for the Middle East Amos Hochstein said in an internal phone call that "Iran is essentially naked", according to Fox News.

Israel carried out the airstrikes in the early hours of October 26 in retaliation for a ballistic missile barrage from Iran on Oct. 1. One Iranian civilian and four military personnel were killed, Iranian media said, and officials have pledged a response.

Threat of Israel’s annihilation

In his Monday remarks, Israel’s defense minister said the vulnerability of Iranian nuclear sites has made it more plausible for Israel “to achieve the most important goal, to thwart and remove the threat of annihilation from hanging over the State of Israel."

Iranian authorities have consistently called for Israel's destruction, and until now, refused to call it anything other than 'the Zionist entity'.

Farhad Shakeri, an Afghan national with ties to Iran, was instructed by an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) official to carry out a mass shooting in the touristy area of Arugam Bay, a popular destination for Israeli travelers, according to the US indictment.

The attacks were to be carried out in October 2024 and included the supply of AK-47 rifles and other weapons.

“Sri Lankan authorities reported having arrested three individuals in connection with the threat. One of the individuals arrested was identified as CC-2,” the indictment read.

CC- 2 was allegedly told to monitor Arugam Bay and worked with Iranian intelligence officials to gather information and carry out the attack, Shakeri told the FBI according to the unsealed document.

Shakeri advised US federal agents that he and CC- 2 had served time together in prison. Shakeri, identified by US authorities as residing in Tehran, immigrated to America as a child and was deported around 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for a robbery conviction. He developed a network of criminal associates during his prison sentence.

The indictment also states that as part of the plot, he planned to assassinate two American Jews described as "supporters of Israel." Shakeri was instructed to locate the victims in New York and said he was promised $500,000 to kill each of them.

An Iran International exclusive report revealed that an assassination plot targeting Israelis in Sri Lanka had been foiled last month according to police sources in Colombo familiar with the matter. The plot was linked to the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.

A police source in Sri Lanka told Iran International that 577 Israelis were under "maximum security" in an operation which spanned the police and military.

The Justice Department also charged two others allegedly recruited to kill Alinejad, an outspoken critic of Iran. The other individuals were identified as Carlisle Rivera, also known as "Pop", 49, from Brooklyn, and Jonathon Loadholt, 36, from Staten Island. The unsealed indictment alleges that Shakeri instructed them to kill the journalist.

The US government said Shakeri has not been arrested and is believed to be in Iran. The Islamic Republic said claims about Iran's involvement in the alleged plots are baseless. It is unclear why Shakeri was not arrested despite being questioned by the FBI.