As the world awaits the inauguration of incoming US President Donald Trump, Israelis expect the new administration will be focusing on securing an official peace deal with Saudi Arabia to shore up a barrier against Iran.
However, as Trump prepares to return to the White House with a pledge to "end wars" rather than start them, questions remain about how assertively he will push for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon—and how firm his stance will be on Iran.
Moty Cristal, a former Israeli negotiator, told Iran International: “The biggest mistake of those who really don’t understand the war strategy is that they’re falling in the trap of thinking of Trump ending the war.
“Because of Hamas’s goal to sabotage the peace deal with Saudi, the war in Gaza can’t be seen as a stand alone issue. While Trump has already spoken of a ceasefire option in Lebanon, Gaza has got to be seen through a regional view.”
He said that the real goal of Hamas on October 7 had two objectives, to free Palestinian prisoners and to derail the Israeli-Saudi-US deal which had been started by Trump with the 2020 Abraham Accords, securing peace between Israel and Arab States such as the UAE and Bahrain.
In January 2023, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the UK, Prince Khalid bin Bandar, told the BBC the pact was “close”, before the deadly attacks by Iran-backed Hamas on October 7. Since then, the country has remained firm on its demands to see the creation of a Palestinian state before making peace official with Israel.
“We all understand that Trump will take over the Saudi initiative and the wreck of the Biden administration and resume it, so Gaza should be seen through the regional perspective. It’s not just the US-Saudi defense treaty that is on the table now,” Cristal explained.
While the first step to regional stability is ending the war in Gaza, Cristal said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who wants to “clean his October 7 stain and reframe his legacy”, must look at Gaza as part of a regional pact.
“Both Bibi [Netanyahu] and Trump want this to be their legacy,” Cristal added. “Trump’s first move towards stability in the region will be this, at a lower price, without US boots on the ground.”
An Israeli official familiar with the matter also spoke to Iran International, on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive topic. “Everyone is still happy that Trump has been elected but they know he will put pressure on Israel to end the war,” the source said. “They also feel he will lift the pressure on Iran, not increase it. Netanyahu will not be given free reins on Iran. Trump wants peace and business, so he won’t allow anything to harm the oil fields in Iran.”
An Israeli intelligence source also speaking on condition of anonymity, told Iran International the outcome is going to depend on who makes up the incoming administration.
“It depends more on Trump’s advisors and who he is going to surround himself with more than anything else so things are still uncertain as to whether he would be forcing a ceasefire or taking a tougher stance on Iran,” he said.
Last year, three years after the signing of the 2020 Abraham Accords, members of Congress were vocal in their support for adding Saudi to the initiative as US-Israel-Saudi talks continued behind the scenes.
At an event before the outbreak of the Gaza war at the US Capitol hosted by the N7 Initiative, a collaboration between the Atlantic Council and the Jeffrey M. Talpins Foundation, Terry Wolff of the White House National Security Council confirmed the deal was still under discussion as the Biden administration continued the legacy of Trump's Arab-Israeli peace accords.
Republican Kathy Manning (D-NC) said Saudi joining a pact would “help create a bulwark against Iran,” the oil-rich state a critical piece of the puzzle.
But even since the war, the prospect appears to be alive, in spite of Saudi’s stance that peace with Israel must depend on the creation of a Palestinian state. Behind closed doors, the talks between the two countries are very much still underway.
Kirsten Fontenrose, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council, said: “Quiet cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia has neither frozen nor slowed one year after the Hamas attack on Israel … Saudi Arabia and Israel proceed discreetly at pace with mind-melds in areas both hope will surge their economies, deter their enemies and prevent the resurgence or emergence of new ones.“
