Iran International
Iran's strike against Israel could be as early as after US elections polls close and will likely involve Israel's air defenses being the main targets in this round of the long-range missile war.
That would overshadow the winner and sow chaos for whoever becomes the next president during the transition phase, said Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute.
Leaders of the Islamic Republic have warned that their response to Israel will be a “punishing” reprisal.
Nadimi, who specializes in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the greater region, said Iran would most likely use Iraq and Syria to launch more precise missiles.
Iran hinted at this in an interview between Kamal Kharrazi, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader with Lebanon-based pro Iran broadcast Al-Mayadeen on Friday.
Kharrazi said that Tehran will increase the range of its ballistic missiles that go beyond the self-restricted limit of 2,000 km. Achieving that would require launching from neighbouring ally countries like Iraq and Syria.
Nadimi points to recent reports of missiles moving from Iraq into eastern Syria.
"They [Iran] will want to bring their missiles closer to Israel to improve their range," said Nadimi.
Iraq would likely object, but Nadimi said they would not have the power to prevent Iran from doing it, and Israel is anticipated to launch preemptive strikes at Iraq and Syria.
The Jerusalem Post also reported that "the IDF has not ruled out the possibility of an Iranian response from Syria, Yemen, or Iraq, rather than directly from Iran."
For this strike, Nadimi who specializes in Iran's military capabilities, believes it will launch up to 400 missiles, if not more. The aim: to disable major Israeli air defense sites and defense industries.
There are 4 main air bases: Nevatim, Tel Nof, Hatzerim and Ramon.
Those four air bases were allegedly involved in Israel's latest strike in Iran.
Israel's military said its October 26 attack knocked out Iranian missile factories and air defenses in three waves of strikes in response to Iran's barrage of ballistic missiles on October 1.
There may even be deployment of top line missiles like the Khoramshahr-4 alongside Fattah, Kheibarshekan and Emad, according to Nadimi.
The Artesh, which is Iran's military, along with the use of drones is also another scenario Nadimi foresees.
Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, said Iran's army along with proxies and the IRGC could assist Iran's air force and navy.
Brodsky said of note is Artesh's role during the Syrian civil war and its fighter jets striking ISIS in Iraq in 2014.
"The army’s air force and navy platforms have the capability of launching missiles and drones at Israeli targets. That combined with IRGC missiles and drones launched from either Iran or Iraq, Syria, and Yemen is a very realistic possibility," he added.
Israel would retaliate against both Iran and its proxies, which would be a huge risk for Tehran, yet it's a risk that indicates how much the establishment's deterrence has failed, according to Brodsky.
According to state news agency IRNA, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “If [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a ceasefire and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response.”
