PODCAST: Iran’s proxy strategy falters—will it double down or shift course?

“We are fully committed to preparing the Iranian nation in every necessary way to confront arrogance,” Khamenei said on Saturday, referring to the US and Israel. “Whether in terms of military readiness, weaponry, or political efforts, thank God, officials are actively engaged in these efforts.”

Iranian government-controlled media carried a uniform news item with the headline, "The United States and the Zionist regime will certainly receive a crushing response."

Since 1979, Iran's Islamic government has used the term "global arrogance" to describe the United States, conveying a meaning similar to imperialism.

Khamenei’s comments came during a speech to students on the anniversary of the 1979 attack on the US embassy in Tehran, a date remembered for the seizing of US diplomats and citizens and holding them hostage for 444 days.

Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets on October 26 in response to missile attacks from Iran on October 1. Israeli airstrikes targeted missile facilities and air defense systems, resulting in the deaths of at least four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Iranian officials have vowed to retaliate against Israel in the next few days.

“This is not merely about revenge; it is a logical movement, a confrontation aligned with religion, ethics, Sharia, and international laws. The Iranian people and the country’s officials will not show any hesitation or leniency in this regard. Be assured of this,” added Khamenei.

His words were echoed by former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and Khamanei’s advisor, who, in a recent interview, suggested that Iran’s military doctrine could shift if faced with an existential threat.

Kharrazi, now head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said, “We already have the technical capabilities to produce weapons; only a religious decree forbidding nuclear weapons prevents us from doing so,” referring to a ruling by Khamenei against nuclear arms.

IRGC Spokesperson Mohammad Naeini also on Saturday threatened that a firm response will be delivered to Israel’s attack.

"A decisive and firm response will be given to the new act of aggression by the enemy," he said.

"Israel's miscalculation is thinking that Iran fears direct confrontation and will leave military attacks unanswered," he added.

Israel's October 26 air strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran's air defenses and missile production facilities, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, quoting American and Israeli officials. This has left the country vulnerable should it decide to launch a retaliatory attack against Israel in the coming days.

This time, Israel can operate with impunity, sending aircraft deeper into Iranian airspace and targeting nuclear facilities, additional military sites, or economic assets. An expert told the Wall Street Journal that Iran’s focus now is more on defending itself than on retaliating against Israel.

"We have exported the anti-Americanism movement so effectively that, beyond influencing Islamic societies, the resistance to imperialism and animosity toward the United States have evolved into global phenomena, even resonating within America itself," Alamolhoda, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's representative in the city of Mashhad, said during his Friday sermon.

Iranian officials have often taken pride and praised anti-Israel and anti-US protest in Western countries since the Hamas invasion of Israel in October 2023. Over the past four decades, the Islamic government has spent enormous resources to create and support groups throughout the Middle East to fight against Israel and Western influence.

The Iran hostage crisis, unfolding from 1979 to 1981, saw militants seize 66 American citizens at the US embassy in Tehran, holding 52 of them captive for 444 days. Taking place in the turbulent wake of Iran's Islamic Revolution and the collapse of the Pahlavi monarchy, the crisis left a lasting scar on US-Iranian relations, profoundly straining diplomatic ties for years to follow.

Highlighting the initial criticism of the act, even from supporters of the Islamic Revolution within Iran, Alamolhoda said, “At the time, many circles viewed this move as a profound error, claiming that we had invited misfortune upon ourselves.”

He continued, “Yet today, we are acknowledged as a formidable regional power, having not only consolidated our internal strength but also cultivated a vast network of resistance across Islamic societies.”

One of the officials criticizing the action is the controversial former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In a June interview, he questioned, "For how much longer do we desire to remain in conflict with the US?" He lamented, "Following the revolution, there was potential to resolve matters with the US, but certain individuals occupied the embassy, complicating matters."

Also, former lawmaker and outspoken politician Ali Motahari said in 2021 that it was "an unnecessary move instigated with the provocations of leftist groups to serve the interests of the Embassy of the Soviet Union and the Tudeh Communist Party."

The findings by cybersecurity researcher Nariman Gharib and whistleblower group Lab Dookhtegan show the IRGC’s cyber unit Emennet Pasargad is carrying out a campaign to “disrupt and incite tension in the elections, particularly in swing states,” according to their joint report.

Since 2024, the group - also known as "Shahid Shoushtari" - has been actively gathering intelligence on swing states. It has reportedly sent direct messages to US Senate candidates in one of these pivotal states with the intent of disrupting the electoral process.

“This is not the first time this particular Iranian cyber group is targeting a US Presidential Election,” Gharib told Iran International on Friday.

The United States previously sanctioned Emennet Pasargad which prohibits US entities from conducting business with the group, accusing it of disinformation spread online, including interference in the 2020 presidential election

The State Department's Rewards for Justice program also offers up to $10 million for information on its activities.

Last month, the US Treasury sanctioned seven agents working for the Islamic Republic, for efforts to influence the US presidential elections in 2020 and 2024.

An IRGC member named Masoud Jalili along with six members belonging to the Emennet Pasargad cyber group -Ali Mahdavian, Fatemeh Sadeghi, Elaheh Yazdi, Seyyed Mehdi Rahimi Haji Abadi, Rahmatollah Askarizadeh, and Mohammad Hossein Abdolrahimi - were included on Washington's sanctions list.

According to Gharib, Emennet Pasargad’s new campaign focuses on "disrupting the voter registration process, contaminating voting systems, spreading rumors, creating chaos, and ultimately damaging the infrastructure of US elections."

The latest Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) research related to the US elections released in October said Iran is gearing up for additional influence operations.

“Iranian groups tasked with targeting the US elections may make an effort—as they have in the past—to run influence operations both shortly before and soon after the election by leveraging cyber intrusions from weeks to months prior,” the report said.

Staring into a camera for a post on X, she pinned a mythological symbol evoking Iran's ancient glory onto her shirt and tied back her flowing hair - a symbol of female freedom in the crosshairs of hijab laws back home.

Speaking to Iran International, Gazelle described herself as being in flight or fight mode and not yet fully grasping the loss of her father, Jamshid Sharmahd.

“I'm not feeling anything. I'm just in shock,” she said.

She is haunted by questions and demands proof of her father’s death.

“How did they execute him? Was he poisoned? Did he die under torture?”

According to high-ranking German authorities the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic alleged that “Jimmy died” but the lawyers of his family are still awaiting verification of what really happened.

Gazelle said her father was an activist and journalist who opposed the Islamic Republic and fought them using his expertise as a software engineer to create a website where Iranians inside the country could report human rights abuses.

He created VPNs and helped secure IP addresses so they wouldn’t get tracked by the government, Gazelle said.

Authorities accused him of terrorism for allegedly orchestrating a series of deadly bomb attacks inside Iran. He had been living in the United States for the past two decades.

Gazelle and leading human rights experts have denied the charges, saying confessions at his trial were made under duress and that his activism and criticism of the Islamic Republic made him a target.

A United Nations human rights expert in 2022 described Jamshid’s detention as arbitrary, and Amnesty International referred to his trial as a sham.

Fear beyond borders
Jamshid Sharmahd's case represents the peril faced by Iranian dissidents far beyond its borders.

In 2020, journalist Ruhollah Zam, a French citizen, was executed in Iran after being lured from Paris to Iraq under the guise of working on a story.

In February 2024, US authorities charged an Iranian national allegedly operating on behalf of the Iran to kill dissidents abroad, and two Canadian men with ties to the Hells Angels biker gang were arrested in an alleged plot to carry out assassinations in Maryland.

Outspoken human rights activist Masih Alinejad was one of them.

In 2021, the FBI thwarted an alleged kidnapping plot against Alinejad and an alleged assassination attempt the following year. The FBI said both plots were linked to Iran.

Criminal gangs operating on the behest of the Islamic Republic of Iran are behind a string of terror attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe since October 7, according to Israeli and Swedish Intelligence agencies.

Abducted in real time

Jamshid was sentenced to death in 2022 for “corruption on Earth,” sparking condemnation from human rights groups and Western governments.

The 69-year-old suffered from Parkinson’s disease and grew up in Germany and spent most of his adult life raising his family in the United States. While on a layover in Dubai in 2020, he was abducted from his hotel by Iranian agents.

Gazelle said she saw the entire kidnapping unfold from her father’s google tracker.

“We could see how his taken from his hotel room to the border to Oman to the coast of Oman. And then the tracker breaks off,” she said.

The German government announced Thursday that it would close three Islamic Republic consulates in response to the execution of the dual citizen. Germany’s foreign minister called it an assassination.

In an email to Iran International, a US State Department spokesperson said the US joins Germany in condemning his execution and supports their move in shutting down Tehran's consulates.

“Sharmahd’s execution was an abhorrent act by the Iranian regime and underscores that the record pace of unjust executions in Iran continues unabated, despite Iran’s attempts to promote a gentler face to the international community.”

Gazelle said she doesn’t need kind words and condolences and feels abandoned by both governments.

She questions why the Biden administration did not include her father in a 2023 prisoner swap that freed 5 American citizens. Now, it's too late, she lamented.

As she tries to process her loss, she said she will continue to call for justice and keep up what she described as her father’s legacy.

“He never will give up and we will never give up. You cannot break a freedom fighter.”

"Iranian security forces struck several terrorist teams in Sistan-Baluchestan province during the ongoing 'Martyrs of Security' drill by the IRGC Ground Force," said General Shafaei, the spokesperson for the exercises.

"Eight members from four terrorist teams were arrested, while four were killed".

The operation came less than a week after the insurgent Sunni Baloch group Jaish al-Adl killed ten Iranian border guards in Taftan County.

The Jaish al-Adl attack was condemned by the United Nations Security Council as a "cowardly terrorist attack."

Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province has been the site of numerous attacks attributed to Jaish al-Adl, a group known for its history of ambushes, bombings, and other violent operations, resulting in the deaths of both civilians and security personnel.

Jaish al-Adl advocates for an independent Balochistan that encompasses Baloch populations on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border. The group has conducted numerous armed attacks in Iran's southeast.

In January, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had launched missile and drone attacks against the militant group's bases inside Pakistani territory, a rare cross-border attack which outraged Pakistani officials and prompted Islamabad to launch airstrikes against several locations in southeastern Iran.