Iran International
As anxious Iranians followed the news of the October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and awaited Israel's response, others speculated about a possible shift in the Islamic Republic's nuclear doctrine.
Some speculated that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's prominent appearance to lead Friday prayers in Tehran on October 4 might signal a new era, potentially marked by Iran's withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as hardliners on state TV suggested. There was also widespread anticipation that Khamenei could announce the weaponization of Iran’s controversial nuclear program. On social media, some Iranians even suggested that Khamenei's next move might be pursuing the development of a nuclear bomb.
Political analysts were less direct than social media users in their assessments. International relations analyst Reza Nasri conveyed a nuanced perspective to Etemad newspaper in Tehran, suggesting that "Iran's defense doctrine operates independently of public sentiment. Decisions are made at higher levels of the political structure, likely referring to Khamenei's office, based on all indications. Nonetheless, the regime has yet to make a definitive decision regarding the pursuit of nuclear weapons."
According to Etemad, the IRGC's Javan newspaper, however, wrote in May that "The strategic implication of the rhetoric surrounding a shift in Iran's defense doctrine is that, regardless of whether we possess nuclear weapons, the United States should recognize Iran as a nuclear power, given our capacity to develop them. This approach effectively sidesteps the ongoing discourse about the nuclear issue."
However, the greatest fear for a nation still haunted by the memories of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war is that escalating military actions between Iran and Israel could spiral into a prolonged and far more destructive conflict.
Iran kept the aviation industry was kept in the dark about the imminent attack. Videos on social media show passenger aircraft changing route over Urmia and landing in Shiraz against a backdrop of missiles flying in the sky despite the obvious danger, creating further terror for Iranians.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in Tehran that the government let the United States know about the attack via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran after it was done. However, it was the United States that informed the world of the upcoming attack more than two hours in advance.
Aviation experts on social media revealed that Iranian airspace was finally cleared only at the end of the missile attack. In the meantime, some failing missiles dropped in areas including Zanjan near Tehran.
Some Iranians reminded the government that Israel has provided bomb shelters for its citizens while if missile strikes occur in Iran, the people have no shelter other than the basements of high-rise buildings where they could possibly be buried alive in heavy bombardments. The call for shelters and a demand for briefings by officials on the situation was made repeatedly on social media. Lack of concrete and accurate reporting by the official media outlets make the situation even more chaotic and terrifying.
Speculations on what exactly Israel's reaction to Iran's attacks might be are even more terrifying for ordinary Iranians. Iranian social media user Ehsan Soltani, a student in Middle east Studies at the University of Venice, summed up some of the possible scenarios as: "Attacks with deep psychological impact such as the attacks on pagers in Lebanon, strikes on Iran's missile depots, assassination of top military commanders and political leaders, attacks on Iran's nuclear establishments and infrastructure such as refineries."
While none of these scenarios may come to pass, the mere possibility of them is deeply unsettling.
The missile strike, which occurred Tuesday night, marks an escalation in the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, which supports Hezbollah and Hamas militants.
The images, shared by the Associated Press, show a large hole in the roof of a hangar near the main runway of the base, with debris scattered around. Nevatim is home to several critical Israeli Air Force squadrons. However, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) officials have not confirmed what caused the destruction seen in the photos.
The IDF confirmed structural damage at multiple bases but stressed that no casualties were reported, and no aircraft were harmed.
Sky News has also identified at least seven impact sites, including two Israeli airbases, a school, and two locations near the area believed to house Mossad's headquarters.
The news outlet has geolocated three videos indicating that the Nevatim airbase was targeted in the recent missile strike. Although none of the videos confirm a direct hit on the base or the extent of any damage, the footage collectively suggests that missiles landed within its perimeter, with at least shrapnel damage to the site.
In the videos, at least eight missiles are seen exploding in the direction of the base.
The strike, the second direct attack from Iran, follows an earlier missile bombardment by Iran which included targeting Nevatim in April, the base considered a critical target for Israel’s air defense.
Nevatim base, situated east of Be'er Sheva in southern Israel, houses three squadrons of F-35 fighter jets, along with transport units flying Super Hercules and Hercules aircraft. It also serves as the home of the Wing of Zion, Israel's official state aircraft.
Interceptions by Israel's air defense systems, designed to destroy or deflect incoming missiles, make it challenging to determine if the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended targets. Iran claimed that 90% of the missiles hit their targets, while Israel reported that many were intercepted.
Although the Iron Dome is the most recognized component of Israel's defense, Arrow 2 and 3 systems were the primary defenses against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran. These systems operate outside the Earth's atmosphere, intercepting and neutralizing missiles before they can reach their targets.
“We are not in pursuit of war with Israel. They promised us peace. But Israel has terrorised our guests in Tehran during our presidential inauguration. We want to establish peace. If you disagree, peace will not be established,” he said on Thursday during his trip to Qatar.
Pezeshkian’s trip came a day after Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting tensions between the two arch enemies. In response, Israel escalated its ongoing conflict with Tehran’s ally Hezbollah by sending more troops across the border into Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would retaliate against Iran following the missile strikes.
"If the Zionist regime does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions," Pezeshkian stated before leaving Tehran, according to Iranian state media. He reiterated his position during a joint press conference in Doha with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, emphasizing that if Israel acts against Iran, Tehran will respond more severely.
Qatar, which does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, has been one of the mediators between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas. Israel has accused Qatar of being too soft with Hamas which has one of its political offices in Doha.
Pezeshkian also addressed the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran, which Iran blames on Israel, though Israel has not officially confirmed its involvement.
The Iranian president called on the United States and European countries to pressure Israel to avoid further “destabilizing” the region, without taking responsibility for Tehran's proxies being active across all Israel's borders. Since Hamas's invasion of Israel on October 7, Iran's militias in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon have launched attacks on the Jewish state in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza.
The Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim, reiterated Doha’s commitment to mediating peace efforts, particularly in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which has been ongoing for nearly a year. Efforts to reach a ceasefire have so far stalled.
While in Qatar, Pezeshkian also met with a high-ranking delegation from Hamas and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. During his talks with the Saudi official, Pezeshkian expressed satisfaction with what he described as expanding relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and highlighted Iran's interest in strengthening ties across the region, in spite of the limited progress between Iran and Saudi since last year's resumption of diplomatic relations.
The Iranian president will continue his visit by attending the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) Summit in Doha, where he is expected to seek broader regional support against Israel. He is scheduled to address the summit, which includes 35 Asian countries.