Who Will Represent the ‘Revolutionary Front’ in Iran's Election?

Four of the six hand-picked candidates in Friday's presidential elections -- Jalili, Ghalibaf, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh, and Alireza Zakani – claim they represent “the Revolutionary Front”. Ghazizadeh and Zakani pose very little danger to either Jalili or Ghalibaf and one or both may withdraw in the last minute in Jalili’s favor if he remains in the race.

Ghalibaf and Jalili, along with their respective supporters, have been engaged in a bitter battle on social media, especially in recent days, each trying to convince the other that one of them must withdraw to effectively compete against Pezeshkian and his reformist supporters.

Jalili and Ghalibaf appear to be the strongest contenders in around half a dozen election surveys conducted by institutions affiliated with the government. Pezeshkian is closely following or even overtaking them in these and most unofficial, online polls.

None of the three top candidates has the votes of over 25 percent of the voters who are voting or considering voting. The forecasts about turnout range from 25-55 percent.

Although Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has always insisted that a high turnout is proof of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, hardliners appear to be very worried about a turnout of over fifty percent paving the way for Pezeshkian’s presidency.

The legitimacy of every one of these polls is being contested by candidates’ supporters depending on who they support, and which candidate has the highest votes in them.

Hardliner Ali-Akbar Raefipour, leader of a recently established ultra-hardliner political “front” called Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran (Iran Morning Front) which supports Jalili, tweeted screenshot images of several polls but called them “opinion fabrications” meant to undermine rivals rather than opinion polls. These surveys indicated that Ghalibaf was ahead of Jalili or that Pezeshkian was more popular than both.

The percentage of eligible voters who say they will not vote is very high in almost all these surveys and around one third of those who say they will vote also said they were still undecided about candidates or refused to reveal who they would be voting for.

Pezeshkian’s supporters and some pundits contend that the “undecided” are more likely to vote for him, and to a lesser degree for Ghalibaf, than Jalili. The same argument is being used to convince Jalili and his supporters that his withdrawal is more in the interest of the ‘revolutionary front’ than Ghalibaf’s.

Those in favor of Ghalibaf as the representative of the ‘revolutionary front’ also argue that some who are thinking of voting for him may vote for Pezeshkian if he withdraws, but that all Jalili’s votes will go to Ghalibaf if he is chosen to represent the ‘revolutionary front’.

“In the past three days Pezeshkian has risen to the top [in the polls] and is increasing his distance [from the hardliners so the withdrawal [of Jalili or Ghalibaf] has become a serious issue but for several reasons it will not make a difference,” reformist commentator Abbas Abdi tweeted Sunday.

What makes the matter worse in the eyes of the people, Abdi argued, is that Jalili follows Pezeshkian in the extant polls is the one who will be driven out of the race to make competition with Pezeshkian easier. “They will continue fighting after defeat, too,” he wrote.

“You must surrender to a coalition,” the ultra-hardliner chief editor of Kayhan newspaper, Hossein Shariatmadari, wrote Monday. He contended that forming such a coalition is vital to keep the presidency within the so-called revolutionary front.

“Leaders of sedition” is a clear reference to former President Mohammad Khatami and Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi both of whom have supported the independent Pezeshkian’s candidacy.

“Reason, Sharia, and logic dictate vigilance and caution about the probability, of even weak probability [of the success of the pro-reform candidate],” Shariatmadari warned.