Ex-President Rouhani Challenges State TV in Plea for Fair Play

Amid apparent voter apathy and anti-government sentiment among Iranians, some insights can still be gleaned from a combination of Google Trends analysis and social media polls with shifting interest in candidates and different results depending on the political orientation of social media followers of different channels.

Reformist groups prefer Masoud Pezeshkian, known as a 'moderate' politician, but exhibiting conservative tendencies during his election campaign. On the other hand, hardliners generally favor Saeed Jalili, a firebrand politician opposed to friendly ties with the West and a nuclear deal limiting Iran's atomic program.

The head of Iran's cyberspace police, Vahid Majid, issued a warning on Sunday, emphasizing the prohibition on publishing unofficial polls about the upcoming presidential elections, as reported by Hamshahri Online in Tehran. Additionally last week, Iran's state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) also warned against non-IRIB affiliated polls stating that it only recognizes official polls conducted by its research center, dismissing polls online or other channels.

Despite this restriction, Google Trends data is accessible, and some Iran-based media organizations and news channels have run polls on their Telegram channels. In this report, an analysis of ten Telegram channels with unofficial polls has also been included.

Google Trends Data: Pezeshkian Leads the Way

The Google searches of Iranian internet users reflected in the Google Trends data analysis by Iran-based Khabaronline during the past 7 days provides a perspective of Iranian users' indication of curiosity in the candidate.

Google specifically outlines that search data is an indication of curiosity about the subject or candidate and that it should not be considered an indication of voter intent.

The first Google Trends graph shows a comparison of Google searches of the six candidates' names made by users in Iran from the afternoon of Sunday, June 9, 2024, to the afternoon of Sunday, June 16, 2024, local time.

The search terms include the names of the six candidates in Persian and color-coded in the graph: Masoud Pezeshkian (blue), Saeed Jalili (red), Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (yellow), Mostafa Pourmohammadi (green), Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi (purple) and, Alireza Zakani (purple). Given that Google Trends only allows for up to 5 groups of terms at a time Ghazizadeh and Zakani are marked in purple.

In the first hours following the official announcement of the six presidential candidates, the sole 'reformist' candidate Masoud Pezeshkian emerged as the most searched candidate among Iranian users. He was initially followed by Mostafa Pourmohammadi, with Saeed Jalili and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi trailing behind, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Alireza Zakani coming last in search interest.

However, within two hours, Pourmohammadi was overtaken by Jalili. Over the subsequent seven days, except for certain hours, Pourmohammadi remained in fourth place.

As the initial surprise over Masoud Pezeshkian's candidacy subsided, the gap between him and Saeed Jalili in search interest gradually narrowed. Despite this, Pezeshkian continued to attract more attention overall compared to the other candidates. The peak of searches for Pezeshkian occurred at midnight on June 13, when his appearance on state TV significantly boosted his Google searches.

This pattern of heightened interest following television appearances was observed with other candidates as well. When candidates addressed specific topics on TV, it noticeably influenced the trends of Google searches. This trend is stronger in the case of Jalili and Ghalibaf than in the other three candidates (Pourmohammadi, Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and Zakani).

Provincial Breakdown

The national average (Iran) shows that during the past week, Masoud Pezeshkian leads with a significant 43% of search interest, followed by Saeed Jalili at 23%. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf maintains a moderate level of interest with 13%, while Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and Alireza Zakani receive lower percentages of 9%, 7%, and 5% respectively.

Masoud Pezeshkian is more popular in the northern and western half of the country in West Azerbaijan Province and Ilam Province, and it is only in the provinces of South Khorasan and Qom that Saeed Jalili has attracted more attention by a small margin. Interestingly, the share of search results to the other 4 candidates (Ghalibaf, Pourmohammadi, Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and Zakani) in the provinces of the country does not show a specific and decisive difference.

Social Media Polls

Examining non-scientific polls from prominent Telegram channels reveals varying degrees of candidate support and voter engagement. Pezeshkian consistently leads in several of these online polls. Saeed Jalili also maintains a strong position. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also emerges prominently in Telegram polls with substantial subscriber bases.

"Do You Know Magazine” Telegram Channel

The "Do You Know Magazine" entertainment Telegram channel, with over 2 million users, conducted a now-deleted non-scientific poll that garnered 64,156 votes. According to the poll results, 71% of participants indicated they would vote for none of the candidates. Among those who expressed a preference, Masoud Pezeshkian received 11% of the votes, followed by Saeed Jalili at 10%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 5%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi at 2%, Alireza Zakani at 1%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes.

Akharin Khabar

Akharin Khabar’s Telegram channel, with over 2 million subscribers, conducted a poll with 143,669 participants. According to the results, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leads with 32%, followed by Saeed Jalili at 28%. Masoud Pezeshkian garnered 19% of the votes, while Alireza Zakani received 3%. Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and the "View Results" option, which displays the poll results without being a voting choice, each obtained 2% of the viewership. Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes in the poll.

Khabar Farda

Khabar Farda, a Telegram channel with 780,000 subscribers, conducted a poll with 45,747 participants. The results show Masoud Pezeshkian leading with 27%, followed by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with 16%, and Saeed Jalili with 10%. Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received 2% of the votes, while Alireza Zakani and Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes. Additionally, 45% of participants chose the "View Results" option, which displays the poll results without casting a vote.

Khabar

Khabar, a news Telegram channel with 577,635 subscribers, conducted a poll with 23,940 participants. According to the results, Masoud Pezeshkian received a commanding lead with 64% of the votes, showcasing strong support among the channel's audience. Saeed Jalili followed with 20%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf garnered 8%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi obtained 4%, while both Alireza Zakani and Mostafa Pourmohammadi received 2% each.

Masaf Institute

The controversial Masaf Institute, associated with a recent fraud and money laundering scandal and headed by ultra-hardliner politician Ali-Akbar Raefipour, conducted a poll on their Telegram channel, which has 183,990 subscribers. The poll received 65,734 votes, with the following results: Saeed Jalili received the highest support with 65%, followed by Masoud Pezeshkian at 19%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 10%, Alireza Zakani at 2%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi at 3%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi at 1%.

Efsha News

Efsha News, an entertainment news channel on Telegram with 184,774 subscribers, conducted a poll that garnered 25,594 votes. According to the results, 57% of participants indicated they would not vote, while Saeed Jalili received 19% of the votes and Masoud Pezeshkian 17%. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf garnered 4%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received 2%, and Alireza Zakani obtained 1%. Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes.

Entekhab News

Entekhab News, a 'reformist' newspaper with a Telegram channel boasting 155,410 subscribers, conducted a poll that garnered 70,099 votes. According to the results, Masoud Pezeshkian leads with 39% of the votes, indicating significant support among the channel's audience. Saeed Jalili follows closely behind with 36%, positioning him as a strong contender in the poll. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf received 7% of the votes, while Alireza Zakani, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi did not receive any votes. Additionally, 17% of participants indicated they have not yet reached a decision.

Donyaye Eghtesad

Donyaye Eghtesad (World of Economy), Iran's leading economic newspaper, on Telegram with 61,934 subscribers, conducted a poll that received 11,971 votes. According to the results, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leads with 37% of the votes. Masoud Pezeshkian follows with 21%, while Saeed Jalili received 15% support. Alireza Zakani, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi did not receive any votes in the poll. Additionally, 27% of participants chose to view the results without casting a vote.

Presidential Election News Channel

In a poll conducted by this Telegram channel with 106,765 subscribers and 51,157 participants, Masoud Pezeshkian leads with 43% of the votes, followed by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 32%, and Saeed Jalili with 19%. Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received 3%, Alireza Zakani 2%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi obtained 1% of the votes.

Shargh News

Shargh News, a prominent Telegram channel with 22,527 subscribers, conducted a poll with 11,597 participants. The results indicate that Saeed Jalili is the frontrunner with 30% of the votes, followed closely by Masoud Pezeshkian with 28%. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf garnered 22%, Alireza Zakani received 19%, Mostafa Pourmohammadi 1%, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi did not receive any votes.

In a public letter, Rezaei said that “the Islamic Republic has no legitimacy, and this is a bet on the government's losing horse, repeating past mistakes.”

Since the 2022 uprising, Iran's government has faced the biggest legitimacy crisis since the founding of the Islamic Republic, with record unemployment, record poverty and mass social crackdowns on the populace.

She stated, "Once again, the Islamic government is seeking legitimacy by creating a choice between bad and worse, which has been the method of reformists for years".

Rezaei was arrested by security forces on May 22, 2023, and sentenced to 26 years in prison for "undermining national security" after supporting the Woman, Life, Freedom movement.

Golrokh Iraee, another political prisoner who criticized the government just a day earlier, called the encouragement to participate in the elections by reformists a "betrayal", though only one of the six candidates in the upcoming June 28 poll is from the reform camp, all others staunchly conservative allies of Iran's theocratic dictatorship.

Both prisoners argue that meaningful change is unattainable through the current electoral system, which they claim is rigged to favor the regime's interests to institute another ally of the ageing supreme leader, Ali Kahemenei.

Participation in the polls, called in the wake of the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month, is expected to hit record lows, similar to the March parliamentary elections. Unofficial reports estimate voter turnout to have been as low as 10 percent, with the last two presidential polls similarly low.

A statement released Tuesday stated: "Any quote not documented by existing and written records of the statements and comments of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution lacks credibility and reference."

The office criticized the "incomplete or incorrect references" made by presidential candidates and their associates, insisting that all quotes must be verified through official documents.

During the televised campaigns for the June 28 snap presidential election, candidates handpicked by the core of the establishment frequently invoked quotes and remarks by Ali Khamenei to lend credibility to their statements.

While the directive is perceived as an effort to tighten control over information and mute independent voices before the elections, many interpret this as Khamenei's strategy to distance himself from any potential failures of the next president.

The elections have been called in the wake of the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi last month in a freak helicopter crash.

Health Minister Bahram Einollahi said at a press conference on Tuesday afternoon that so far, nine patients have lost their lives in the fire. Initially, authorities announced the death toll at eight.

Mohammad-Taghi Ashoubi, the president of Gilan University of Medical Sciences, announced that another patient has died, increasing the death toll from the fire.

According to local media, the fire department and Red Crescent teams responded to the scene, managing to extinguish the fire and facilitate the evacuation of patients and staff.

According to Ashoubi, initial investigations show that the fire at the Qaem Hospital started in the UPS room and emergency power facilities in the lower floors of the hospital.

UPS systems are used in hospitals for various purposes, including providing emergency power, supplying electricity during peak demand periods, improving the quality of AC power, reducing noise, and eliminating power fluctuations.

Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported that at the time of the incident, the hospital was operating near its full capacity with 142 of its 250 beds occupied.

At least 110 people have been transferred to another hospital following the blaze.

Authorities have launched an investigation into the cause of the fire, and forensic medicine specialists are examining the circumstances leading to the fatalities, added Tasnim. 

In February, the health ministry revoked the licenses of 100 ailing hospitals and put 250 more on probation amid patient safety concerns.

Saeed Karimi, the Deputy Health Minister, said warnings had been given. "Out of the 350 hospitals expected to take action, only 200 have complied. As a consequence, licenses for 100 hospitals, including Gandhi hospital, have not been renewed."

Speaking to ISNA, he admitted that many of the hospitals have been operating for over 25 years and are in dire need of renovation.

On January 25, a large fire broke out at Gandhi hospital, a prominent healthcare facility in northern Tehran. The blaze engulfed the building's exterior facade, prompting an evacuation of the premises. There were no immediate reports of casualties, although the cause of the fire remained unknown.

The motion, proposed by the Iranian Justice Collective (IJC), sanctions 31 judicial officials involved in the death sentence of rapper Toomaj Salehi.

The IJC compiled the names of 31 judges, prosecutors and investigators of the Islamic Revolutionary Court across its 70 branches, including the judge who sentenced Toomaj Salehi to death, to be added to the existing list of sanctioned Islamic Republic officials.

Monday morning members of the IJC Nazanin Afshin-Jam and Tara Dachek joined Senator Julie Miville-Dechêne, and MPs Ali Ehsasi and Heather McPherson in Ottawa to present the motion before the vote.

Toomaj, a beloved dissident rapper, was sentenced to death for his lyrics criticizing the Islamic Republic. The artist and his song became popular in 2022 during nationwide anti-government protests in Iran.

He was initially arrested in October 2022 for his support of the Woman- Life- Freedom movement.

After his release, Toomaj described being "severely tortured" during his time in prison. Just two weeks after his release, he was arrested again in late 2023, and charged with "corruption on earth" - a crime punishable by death.

Speaking in Ottawa Monday, human rights activist Nazanin Afshin-Jam asked people to imagine if Canadian rapper Drake was sentenced to death simply for his lyrics.

"Canadians would be outraged," she said, "And that's the horror Iranians feel."

"He [Toomaj] was tortured. He had his legs and arms broken and they injected him with unknown substances while he was in detainment in the prison cells in Iran to to extract false confessions," said Afshin-Jam.

Fellow IJC member Tara Dachek knows the struggles the Iranian people face living under a repressive regime. She came to Canada just five years ago to escape the authoritarian laws that Amnesty International has labelled a "war on women and girls" and as a "gender apartheid" state.

"His bravery inspired me so deeply. Imagine knowing that rapping is illegal in Iran, yet choosing to use your legal name and voice to fight against one of the most brutal regimes in the world," said Dachek.

Dachek described Toomaj's voice and his rap music as his only weapon, and she vowed to be his voice now.

Toomaj sanctions in Canada follow the Toomaj Act in the United States last month, which passed a bipartisan act calling also for targeted sanctions for certain judges, prosecutors, and investigators of across branches of the Islamic Revolutionary Courts of Iran. It also codified the position of the United States that judgments issued by Islamic Revolutionary Courts against political prisoners are a violation of human rights.

The Canadian motion, spearheaded by NDP Foreign Affairs Critic Heather McPherson also condemns gender apartheid, violations of civil liberties, killings and acts of violence committed by the Islamic Republic of Iran against its own people.