Bolton Foresees Regime Change In Iran After Khamenei's Death

In an unattributed commentary entitled “Critique To Foreign Minister’s Recent Remarks” , the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked news agency said Wednesday that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s tweet could provoke “unfortunate and irreparable events that may cause challenges to the old friendship between the peoples of Iran and Afghanistan.” 

In his tweet on August 8, the Iranian foreign minister had accused the Taliban of committing a murderous act in August 1998 by attacking the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e Sharif during which they killed eight diplomats and a journalist. In fact, Iran’s Journalists Day on August 8 was designated to honor that journalist. 

“It is very surprising that despite several meetings with Taliban officials and hosting them, the minister of foreign affairs is unaware of the sensitivities of these matters and the costs that such statements may impose on the government and people of Iran,” Fars wrote and claimed that a breakaway Taliban faction controlled by Pakistani intelligence had been responsible for the Mazar-e Sharif attack. 

In another tweet seven hours later, apparently after he was chastised behind the scenes by the military, Amir-Abdollahian tried to somehow appease his critics, but this appears not to have satisfied the IRGC which the Taliban a potential ally against the United States. 

In his second tweet the Iranian foreign minister claimed that he had been told by the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Amir Khan Muttaqi, at their first meeting, that the Taliban condemned the 1998 attack on the Iranian consulate, when asked to clarify the Taliban’s position regarding the matter. 

"There is no relationship between the Taliban of today and them. We condemn that inhuman act," Muttaqi said according to Amir-Abdollahian.

Fars also claimed on Thursday that according to sources close to the Taliban negotiating team in Doha, the US Special Representative Thomas West has repeatedly demanded that the Taliban act as a destabilizing force against the Islamic Republic of Iran in return for the release of part of Afghanistan’s blocked assets. Allegedly, the Taliban turned down the demand. 

A London-based Afghan political activist told Iran International that the Islamic Republic of Iran has now realized its calculations were wrong and the Taliban would gradually increase their capabilities to act against Tehran, no matter how much the Islamic Republic compromises with them. 

It had been obvious from the beginning that the religious ideological difference would not allow a stable relationship between the two and “the honeymoon period” would end sooner or later, he stressed. 

Tehran was the third country after Pakistan and Russia that handed over Afghanistan’s embassy to the Taliban following the fall of President Ashraf Ghani in 2021 and has more or less maintained good relations with the Taliban despite several border skirmishes. 

Tensions have been simmering between the Islamic Republic and the Taliban in the past few months over Iran’s share of the waters of Hirmand (Helmand in Afghanistan) which the Taliban are withholding by building dams. 

In June Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran does not recognize the Taliban and called for the formation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan. He referred to the water dispute, stressing that any dispute had to be resolved through legal channels as stated in the 1973 water treaty between the two countries. Iran's foreign ministry also strongly refuted Taliban’s claim over lack of enough water due to draught to release Iran's share of the river’s waters.

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian made this assertion during a diplomatic visit to South Africa, just three days after he denied any involvement in sending drones to Russia during a visit to Japan.

His announcement follows the contentious discourse surrounding the delivery of Iranian-manufactured drones to Russia, a development that garnered international attention following the Kremlin's invasion of in Ukraine. Although Iran initially denied allegations of providing Shahed suicide drones to Russia, Amir-Abdollahian eventually acknowledged the transfer in November 2022. He claimed that these deliveries occurred in a restricted capacity before the Ukrainian conflict began.

However, Ukrainian authorities have vehemently disputed Iran's narrative and produced a alrge amount of physical evidence showing that Iran continues to deliver hundreds of drones.

During discussions with Japanese officials in Tokyo, Amir-Abdollahian repeated Iran's position that it had not supplied drones for use in the Ukrainian conflict. He also dismissed tangible evidence from Ukraine showing the use of Iranian drones.

The European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, have implemented a series of punitive measures against Iran in response to allegations of drone deployments which purportedly targeted civilian zones and critical infrastructure within Ukraine. Within Iranian political circles, there has been a noticeable surge of criticism surrounding the potential repercussions of these alleged actions.

A prominent ‘reformist’ politician also argues that the current popular distrust in the government leads the authorities to use a security approach against the people.

At the same time, a former Deputy Intelligence Minister and Government Spokesman says despite the nationwide uprising that started in September 2022, there is no prospect for change and reform in the country.

Former budget chief Massoud Roghani Zanjani speaking in a Club House chat session that years of inflation and poverty have brought the popular dissatisfaction to a peak and laid the ground for protests in Iran. 

Zanjani said that the current crisis is the outcome of clerics' intervention in politics and the conflict between elected and non-elected bodies in the government. He added that the non-elected bodies are where the clerics' power centers are. 

He further added that "When absolute power was given to the Supreme Leader in the 1987 revision of the Iranian Constitution, it was in fact similar to crossing out all other articles of the Constitution." He pointed out that since then, Ali Khamenei has undermined the Constitution by actions such as giving executive powers to the heads of the three branches of the government. 

Zanjani said one of the reasons for the country's economic crisis is that Iran has two treasuries, one for the government, and another for Khamenei's office. He further charged that privileges given to the clerics has created an apartheid regime in their favor. 

Meanwhile, prominent reformist figure Feyzollah Arabsorkhi said in an interview with Rouydad24 website that people's distrust of the government, has encouraged officials to use security measures as a tool against the people. 

He added that what is going on in the parliament and the government is diagonally different from what people expect. Arabsorkhi said, "Just look at the government's views about the Internet and social media. It reflects the views of the hard core of the government about freedom of speech.” Under these circumstances, you cannot expect the people to trust the government when it tries all the time to restrict people's access to the Internet.

"People's distrust in the government and its efficiency are currently the biggest problems the authorities are facing," Arabsorkhi said, adding that "People do not believe what rulers say, and if the government wishes to correct this situation it should respond positively to popular demands and expectations. 

He added that the hijab law that is currently being discussed secretly at the parliament without paying attention to the people's views and expectations is one of the examples why Iranians have lost trust in the government. The state television which could have acted as mediator between the people and the government acts so unilaterally that there is no trace of the people's demands in its programming.

Meanwhile, former government spokesman Ali Rabiei wrote in Etemad Online website that there is still no prospect for reforms and correcting mistakes made by the government despite several months of nationwide protests. 

"On the contrary, in some cultural issues we see that the government is putting a step back," Rabiei said, presumably referring to compulsory hijab.

Rabiei insisted that failure to bring about a clear prospect for reforms in foreign and economic policies, and improve governance will adversely affect turnout in the upcoming parliamentary elections. 

As part of the Iranian regime’s crackdown on defiance against mandatory hijab, Mohammad Saeedi said that sports activities must align with the country's religious principles, urging for the compulsory hijab for female athletes.

"The hijab is an adornment for female athletes," Saeedi stated. "In sports, we are not supposed to do whatever they ask us to do, but we only do sports that do not contradict our religious values."

"Hijab is an adornment for female athletes in domestic and international gatherings, and if our ladies want to be approved by God, they must separate themselves from people who violate values."

These remarks come in the wake of recent events that have raised concerns about the treatment of female athletes in Iran. Morality police in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf recently detained female athletes during a simple morning workout.

A significant number of Iranian athletes, particularly women, have defected from national teams in recent years, seeking asylum in other countries. This exodus has been attributed to a combination of factors, including a lack of attention, threats, mandatory hijab, corruption within sports federations, and Iran's policy of not allowing athletes to compete against Israelis.

Mohammad Saeedi said that sports activities must align with the country's religious principles, urging for the compulsory hijab for female athletes.

"The hijab is an adornment for female athletes," Saeedi stated. "In sports, we are not supposed to do whatever they ask us to do, but we only do sports that do not contradict our religious values."

"Hijab is an adornment for female athletes in domestic and international gatherings, and if our ladies want to be approved by God, they must separate themselves from people who violate values."

These remarks come in the wake of recent events that have raised concerns about the treatment of female athletes in Iran. Morality police in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf recently detained female athletes during a simple morning workout.

A significant number of Iranian athletes, particularly women, have defected from national teams in recent years, seeking asylum in other countries. This exodus has been attributed to a combination of factors, including a lack of attention, threats, mandatory hijab, corruption within sports federations, and Iran's policy of not allowing athletes to compete against Israelis.

Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) specifically highlighted the activities of the Charming Kitten online espionage group, which employs sophisticated tactics to gain the trust of its targets.

According to the BfV, Charming Kitten employs a multi-step process that begins with building trust through personal contact, eventually leading the victim to unwittingly expose personal data, including online contacts within Iran. The group employs spear-phishing tactics, using counterfeit messages that appear authentic to acquire sensitive information. The victims are then lured into online video chats where they are prompted to enter login details, providing the hackers with potential access to their online accounts.

The cyberattacks conducted by Charming Kitten have primarily targeted dissident organizations and professionals, including legal practitioners, journalists, and human rights activists both within Iran and abroad.

Past instances have revealed the group's involvement in phishing attacks against foreign embassy staff, experts, and human rights advocates. The group's activities are reported to have support from the government of the Islamic Republic.

Notably, Charming Kitten has previously targeted US officials and officials responsible for implementing sanctions against Iran, as well as infiltrating the personal emails of officials within the US Treasury Department. Human Rights Watch has also pointed to the group's involvement in targeting activists, journalists, diplomats, and politicians in the Middle East. The BfV's advisory underscores the critical need for increased cybersecurity awareness and vigilance among dissident activists, journalists, and professionals dealing with sensitive information and international matters.