Iranian Cleric Warns Economic Issues May Affect Seminary Students

Ahmad Bakhshayesh speaking to Rouydad24, a relatively independent website in Tehran said that "Any country that has tensions in its relations with the United States cannot have a serious presence in the world market."

The new rhetoric by some regime insiders appears to be a justification for the Islamic Republic's sudden turn to a limited rapprochement with the United States that is presumably intended to relieve the government from economic pressures of US sanctions.

Washington and Tehran are reportedly in contact to explore a limited unofficial deal to reduce tensions. Iran would promise not to enrich uranium beyond the 60-percent level in exchange for release of its frozen funds abroad that could be as high as $20 billion.

Iran’s annual inflation rate has risen close to 70 percent and its currency has lost 50 percent of its value in the past year.

The conservative politician reiterated: "Harnessing the high rate of inflation requires time and expecting a quick solution to the country's economic problems is unrealistic."

He probably made the statement not to create exaggerated hope among Iranians about the outcome of the limited diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and Washington.

However, not everyone in Iran speaks softly about the West and particularly the United States. "Bad cops" such as IRGC aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh are still around. Hajizadeh told IRGC-linked Fars News Agency on Thursday: "We have now access to all the sophisticated technologies in the area of defense industry."

This could potentially include the know-how to make a nuclear bomb. Highlighting Iran's dual policy, Hajizadeh said that despite the breakthrough in foreign relations including the restoration of ties with Saudi Arabia, it is meaningful that President Ebrahim Raisi was personally present at the ceremony for showcasing Iran's "hypersonic" Fattah missile.

Welcoming diplomacy, Bakhshayesh maintained that to attract foreign investments, Iran should take certain steps. He did not elaborate, but the preconditions are presumably playing according to the rules of international relations, limiting uranium enrichment, not sponsoring international terrorism, and stopping regional ambitions and weapons development among other things.

Nonetheless, he said, even if measures are taken, it takes at least two to three years before prices begin to come down in the Iranian market.

In another attempt to justify the talks with Washington, Bakhshayesh said Iran used to have trade and investments by other countries including the United Kingdom and Italy. He said although the Raisi administration is trying to improve ties with Iran's neighbors, that is nothing to be compared with the benefits of having trade relations with the West.

He said although countries such as Saudi Arabia are interested in investment in Iran, we should note that Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar are Iran's rivals in the area of exporting oil, so it is in their interest that Iran remains under US sanctions.

Meanwhile, Jomhouri Eslami, the only conservative newspaper that at times criticizes the President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, wrote Thursday that it is a miracle hardliners are suddenly in favor of talks with the United States, while they used call the previous government a traitor for advocating diplomacy.

The daily pointed out that "Even those who insisted that no one should be allowed to talk about negotiating with the United States following the killing of former IRGC Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani, now support the negotiations."

"Thank God that everybody in Iran has returned to the realm of rationality and thinks in terms of the country's national interests."

Secretary General of Germany's Liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) Bijan Djir-Sarai criticized the meeting of European Union foreign policy official Enrique Mora with Iranian Deputy Foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani, who is also Tehran’s chief nuclear negotiator.

The two met this week in Qatar and discussed the chances of reviving the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement. Iran’s nuclear program is fast advancing with a high level of uranium enrichment.

In a tweet on Friday, Djir-Sarai called the meeting “wrong and shameful”, saying there is a need to adopt a new strategy in this regard, not to stabilize the Islamic Republic.

There have been reports of an intention on the part of the United States to offer financial incentives to the Islamic Republic in return for a freeze on uranium enrichment at 60-percent purity. Critics argue that a partial agreement, not totally limiting Iran's enrichment, but giving billion of dollars to the regime is abad idea, because it will enable further adventures and strengthen its military.

His reaction was to Enrique Mora's tweet, in which he referred to intensive discussions with Bagheri-Kani in Doha, saying that “For the EU, JCPOA is the best possible, if not the only, framework to address the legitimate non-proliferation concerns of the international community on the Iranian nuclear program.”

Before Djir-Sarai, Norbert Röttgen, a member of the German Parliament, criticized the government for negotiating with the authorities of the Islamic Republic in Abu Dhabi.

By publishing the answer of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs to his question about this meeting, Röttgen said "Now we can see why the inclusion of the IRGC in the list of terrorist groups is not progressing."

“What do you think it was about when the E3 [UK, France, Germany] and the regime [officials] came together? My tip: The atomic program and the JCPOA,” he said in a tweet.

Iranian activists and their supporters in the West have been campaigning for months to convince European countries to designate the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. The United States took that step in 2019.

In a letter, the German Foreign Ministry said the representatives of the three European countries that are JCPOA signatories met with Ali Bagheri-Kani in Abu Dhabi on June 12, but the federal government does not comment on the details of the confidential talks.

Earlier, Stephanie Liechtenstein, an independent Vienna-based journalist, quoted her sources as saying that this conversation focused on issues such as the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, military support for Russia's war in Ukraine, and the situation of foreign prisoners.

Recently, in an exclusive report, the Washington Post revealed the three demands of the Biden administration from the Islamic Republic, which were raised during the indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, claiming that such demands do not include the "revival of the JCPOA".

Negotiations on restoring the nuclear deal signed in 2015 between Iran and world powers (JCPOA) stalled last year. The US officials have repeatedly said their focus is not on the JCPOA negotiations any longer, but Washington is rather focused on the Islamic Republic’s suppression of its people and Tehran’s military support for Russia in the invasion of Ukraine.

Amir-Abdollahian "voiced support for the rule of law in all countries, including Russia - a neighbor and a friend... and said he was confident that Russia would get through this stage," state media said in a brief report about the phone call with Sergei Lavrov.

Iran and Russia do not share any borders but are close military and diplomatic allies who have fought together in Syria since 2015 to save the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the country’s 12-year civil war.

Tehran’s military ties with Moscow have expanded since the invasion of Ukraine, with Iran supplying hundreds of kamikaze drones that Russia has used against civilian and military targets. Western powers have strongly objected to Iran’s move. The United States has said that stopping its weapons supplies is one of the conditions if Iran wants to see progress in nuclear negotiations and lifting of economic sanctions.

Earlier in the day, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman had also used the same wording in describing Tehran’s reaction to a military rebellion by the head of the mercenary Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

While Tehran might be concerned about Putin’s hold on power, Iranians opposed to the regime have expressed satisfaction that Russian leader is facing domestic turmoil.

The ministry’s spokesman Nasser Kanaani said in a very brief statement published on the ministry’s website that the recent events in Russia were an internal issue of the country.

The statement was issued several hours after Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin announced he had directed his troops towards Moscow.

There are unconfirmed reports of a phone talk between presidents Ebrahim Raisi and Vladimir Putin Saturday afternoon.

However, many Iranians opposed to the Islamic Republic regime were celebrating Putin’s apparent misfortune, saying that his demise will hasten the fall of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Alireza Nader an Iran watcher and activist tweeted: “Dictators fall, regimes are overthrown, freedom is achieved. Don’t believe the naysayers. Keep doing what you think is right.”

Iranian government media -- including the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Tasnim and Fars news agencies and Press TV, the English Channel of the Islamic Republic State TV -- only reflected the Putin government’s narrative all day on Saturday.

They published selected news about Prigozhin’s challenge, such as Putin calling Prigozhin’s move “mutiny” and a “stab in the back”, and saying he would not succeed in his endeavor to take control of Moscow.

Nour News, affiliated to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), said in a tweet on Saturday that Wagner group's action could lead to "destructive psychological consequences" given Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine war. “But this group essentially lacks the minimum power necessary to challenge the Russian army,” it added.

In another tweet a few hours later, Nour News said Putin’s remarks about “the issue of internal treason as well as his determination to prevent civil war” could indicate that he knows “the West has a new plan to weaken Russia’s national cohesion and bring Moscow to its knees in the Ukraine war.”

A Telegram channel identifying itself as the Revolutionary Guards channel re-published a Twitter post by Reza Abbasi, a hardliner journalist, who suggested Iran would help Russia defeat opposition to Putin. The channel is believed to be affiliated to the IRGC.

‘’We once prevented the downfall of the Syrian government for our own national interests! If necessary, we will also prevent the downfall of Putin’s government,” Abbasi had said in his tweet.

Tasnim later on Saturday afternoon published an interview with Mehdi Seyf-Tabrizi, a Russia expert, who said Prigozhin was helped by “hands from outside Russia” and that in the current circumstances his actions may “deal a fatal blow to Russia from the inside” and distract Moscow from the Ukraine war.

Seyf-Tabrizi said the Russian people will strongly defend the government against the Wagner forces if the course of events continues in the same way in the next few days. “But I don’t think these operations last more than a few days.”

Relatively more independent media outlets have cautiously been providing some real coverage to the events unfolding in Russia.

The conservative news website Nameh News, however, published an interview with Nematollah Izadi, the last Iranian ambassador to the Soviet Union, who said the Russian people are not happy about Putin’s policies and his war on Ukraine which have brought on sanctions.

He also said the Islamic Republic’s involvement in the Russian war on Ukraine was “pointless” and “based on wrong calculations” and has put the country in a difficult place and had disagreeable consequences.

The move by the Financial Action Task Force will further isolate the Islamic Republic from international financial markets and banking system.

“In June 2016, Iran committed to address its strategic deficiencies. Iran’s action plan expired in January 2018. In February 2020, the FATF noted Iran had not completed the action plan,” said the watchdog in a statement.

In October 2019, the FATF called upon its members and urged all jurisdictions to require increased supervisory examination for financial institutions based in Iran; introduce enhanced reporting of financial transactions.

“Now, given Iran’s failure to enact the Palermo and Terrorist Financing Conventions in line with the FATF Standards, the FATF fully lifts the suspension of counter-measures and calls on its members and urges all jurisdictions to apply effective counter-measures,” the group’s 39 members said in a statement after a week-long plenary session.

Iran’s previous government submitted legislation to parliament in 2017 to adopt laws to implement FATF’s standards, but the hardliners have since prevented the final approval of the laws.

Opponents argue that if Iran accedes to FATF demands it will not be able to provide financial help to allied groups in the region that are part of Tehran’s “axis of resistance”.

These groups, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and some Palestinian militant organizations, are designated as terrorists by some countries and act as proxy forces to help the Islamic Republic spread its influence in other countries.