Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Iran’s national currency has lost 16% of its value during the past week, as the government prepares to submit next year’s budget bill to the parliament soon.
Iranian government’s annual budgets have faced annual deficits of at least 30 percent since 2019, when the United States imposed sanctions on the country. During this time, the government had to borrow more heavily from domestic banks, especially the Central Bank, and other financial entities to fill the budget gap.
Another major government revenue source is profits it makes when the rial loses value against major currencies, enabling the government to sell its foreign currencies at higher prices in open markets and pay salaries and other obligations.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest report, released on October 31, thanks to higher oil exports and prices, Iran’s total exports is expected to increase by 41% year-on-year to above $121 billion in 2022. For comparison, the figure was only $54 billion in 2020.
Of course, this figure is an estimate, since official information about how much oil Iran exports and how much foreign currency it actually receives remain state secrets, due to US sanctions.
On the other hand, Iran’s trade turnover balance is expected to stand at plus $35 billion this year, or three times more than in 2021. This value is equal to 81% of Iranian government’s budget, based on the current USD rate in Iran (1USD:367,500 rials).
The Iranian rial has lost about 47% of its value since July 2021, when the new government, headed by Ebrahim Raisi took office.
Regarding the fact that Iranian government’s oil exports during the current fiscal year (started March 21) is estimated to be above 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) or 40% more than last year, with higher global oil prices, its revenues have increased significantly.
Therefore, the government should have enough foreign currency reserves to prevent the de facto devaluation of the rial.
Iran’s oil exports had dropped to around 200,000 barrels a day in 2019-2020 during the Trump Administration which was hawkish in sanctions enforcement. As soon as Joe Biden was elected president, Iran began shipping more oil to China and the daily exports quadrupled by 2022.
Figures published by the central bank show government borrowing from this bank has not increased since July 2021, despite concerns by economists that more money needs to be printed to finance government operations.
However, central bank figures also show that liquidity has increased by 12% during this period, a fact that indicates the government continues printing money in huge amounts, most probably due to selling of foreign currencies at higher rates to the banks and exchange markets.
IMF predicted that Iran’s broad money growth to stand at 47.5% in 2022, 8.5% more than 2021.
This leaves many questions unanswered. If Iran has tripled its exports in two years, why the currency is falling and why It has such high budget deficits. Just this week, the government announced that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has authorized the use of more foreign currency reserves to bridge the deficit.
A Supreme Accounting Office report covering the period March 21- May 20 showed in July that except tax revenues, all other major sources of income grossly underperformed.
The government realized just 37 percent of the projected budget revenues in this period, but the most notable number in the report was how little oil income was collected. While 79 percent of tax revenues were realized, only 15 percent of oil export income entered government coffers. While barter of oil for goods is one possible explanation, rosy predictions about cash in government pockets might be misleading.
This remains another unanswered question, that outsiders like the IMF may never be able to figure out.
Russia's Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin met with Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Russian state news agencies said.
Nour News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), announced in an English tweet that Patrushev was invited by Shamkhani, adding that he will also hold meetings with other high-ranking Iranians to discuss cooperation between Tehran and Moscow.
Alongside Ukraine, the two discussed "information security, as well as measures to counter interference in the internal affairs of both countries by Western special services," the TASS news agency reported, citing a readout from the Russian Security Council press service.
"The economic potential of Russia and Iran and building foreign trade relations in the face of sanctions pressure was emphasized," it added.
Patrushev’s trip to Iran has raised considerable speculations that he might discuss the sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia, which has already used Iranian suicide drones in Ukraine against civilian targets.
The Islamic Republic on Saturday finally admitted it has provided drones to Russia claiming that they were supplied months before the Ukrainian war.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran provided Moscow with a limited number of drones months before the war, but if it is proven that Russia has used them against Ukraine, the Islamic Republic will not be indifferent to it.
After 18 months of talks to revive the JCPOA, an Obama-era nuclear accord with the United States, Iran presented demands in August that were unacceptable to Washington and negotiations broke down. Already in July the US had announced that Iran was preparing to supply drones to Russia.
Petrushev’s visit comes amid some criticism in Tehran of military aid to Moscow. The well-known conservative editor of a government newspaper asked the government on Monday why it did not ban Russia from using Iranian drones against Ukraine. Massih Mohajeri, the editor of Jomhouri Eslami (Islamic Republic) newspaper said the government must admit its mistake.
Some believe Iran publicly announced Patrushev’s arrival in Tehran to tell the world that the mutual ties between the Islamic Republic and Russia is deepening, and implicitly emphasize that a powerful Russian official turned to Iran for help in Ukraine.
However, the clerical regime is likely to boast of its strategic relations with Russia, signaling to its regional adversaries that the Kremlin is a constant powerful ally, although in fact it faces a possible defeat in Ukraine, with its military reputation in tatters.
Some others speculate the Iranian autocratic rulers are seeking Russian assistance to suppress the antigovernment protests that have swept the country since mid-September.
Late last month, the White House expressed concerns that Russia may be advising Tehran on best practices to suppress the ongoing protests in Iran.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said during joint press briefing with Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House John Kirby that Moscow may be helping the Islamic Republic, drawing on its own experience in suppressing open demonstrations.
Patrushev’s visit comes amid international outcry over the Islamic Republic’s supply of drones and ballistic missiles to Moscow. Kiev said earlier that Tehran plans to ship even more arms to Russia. Ukrainian intelligence agencies claimed the Islamic Republic is set to deliver more than 200 Shahed-136 and Arash-2 kamikaze drones, and Mohajer-6 reconnaissance and combat UAVs later in November.
With reporting by Reuters
The most urgent problem is a fast-falling national currency that began to nosedive in early November, dropping to historic lows almost on daily basis. The US dollar has risen from 295,000 rials to 365,000 in two months. But that is just an early signal of what is to come.
The retail sector is having its own multiple problems. First, during protests people are buying less, as recently the garment industry complained of very low sales to consumers who are in no mood to go shopping.
Second, a draconian denial of access to the Internet by the government, to contain the protests, has badly hurt hundreds of thousands of small businesses dependent on sales through social media.
Third, Iranian consumers have begun boycotting large retailers and businesses believed to be controlled by the Revolutionary Guard and other regime entities, as another tool in their civil disobedience movement.
Digikala, Iran’s Amazon, and Mihan dairy and food company have been targeted by activists on social media, who tell the people not to enrich the government’s suppression machine. In a matter of days, there are signs of lower sales by both companies, which sponsored appeals from their workers who asked the public not to harm their livelihoods.
Fourth, and the perhaps the most predictable is a looming shortage of natural gas in the winter, as pressure in Iran’s South Pars maritime fields in the Persian Gulf are gradually falling. The country has failed to secure capital and western technology to improve drilling and pumping system to boost production.
Iran has the world’s second largest natural gas reserves after Russia with almost 30 trillion cubic meters of potential supply, but it needs to invest $50 billion and use special technology only a few western firms can provide to keep its level of daily production at around 700 million cubic meters.
The former head of the national gas company, Hamidreza Eraghi told ILNA news website in Tehran on November 7, that this winter the country might be forced to buy gas from Turkmenistan to be able to supply electricity and keep industries in business. Already, in the past few years as consumption has risen, there have been both shortages of electricity and gas. The government sells energy at ridiculously cheap rates and consumers have no incentive to save, with usage fast increasing each year.
There are also ongoing strikes in the oil and gas sectors in solidarity with nationwide protests, which will further hurt production.
What Iran needs most is imported technology for horizontal drilling for gas, Eraghi said, and this winter imports should increase to prevent an industrial shutdown.
The government has periodically highlighted the need to boost prices to lower consumption, but that would anger a public that has become impoverished in the past four years after the United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Already, with nationwide antigovernment protests raging, the government has no way to increase energy prices.
Ordinary Iranians have fallen victim to high inflation rate for years. No one knows exactly what the current annual inflation rate is, but if one would believe the government, it is at least 40 percent, with food prices having risen by 100 percent in the past 12 months. The falling national currency will accelerate inflation as Iran imports a significant part of its food and raw materials.
With a convergence of so many negative economic developments there is very little the regime can do to stop the protesters, who openly say they want to get rid of the Islamic Republic, not only for its economic mismanagement but also for its draconian denial of social freedoms.