As European officials submitted a final take-it-or-leave-it proposal to restore the Iran nuclear deal, reports say Israeli officials believe Iran is unlikely to agree to a return to the 2015 pact.
According to Haaretz, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will block the move as Europe’s recent confidence in renewed confidence in the talks is just ‘manufactured optimism’ designed to pressure Tehran.
“There was momentary optimism, but very quickly it turned out to be contrived optimism meant to pressure the Iranians into making a decision, hopefully accepting the text as it was presented,” the officials said.
“There wasn’t any strategic shift in terms of the Iranians. They don’t want to accept this agreement, and they will struggle to accept anything that isn’t a significant improvement of the original nuclear deal,” one Israeli official argued.
The new text includes guarantees that foreign companies will be able to invest in Iran or operate there once sanctions are lifted, without fearing the repercussions of any party withdrawing from the deal, as the United States did in 2018 under President Donald Trump, but Tehran demanded more drastic concessions outside the scope of the original agreement, including over an International Atomic Energy Agency probe into undeclared nuclear material found in the country.
Since the announcement of the impending satellite launch, Iranian officials were trumpeting it as their satellite, symbolizing their scientific achievement, but after it was sent into orbit the Russian embassy put out a statement on Instagram saying its companies had built and launched it.
The Islamic Republic, which has openly supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has also been trumpeting the importance of strategic and military ties with Moscow. US officials have been warning since mid-July that Russia is preparing to buy military drones from Iran to use in the war. Iranian officials never clearly denied the accusation.
CNN reported on Wednesday that US officials believe Russians are training in Iran to familiarize themselves with the Iranian drones. This is the second time US officials speak to the media about Russian personnel being in Iran either to review or train on the drones. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in mid-July that Russian officers visited a drone base in Iran’s Kashan, hinting at possible training for operating the drones.
The director of US Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns also said in July, “It’s true that the Russians are reaching out to the Iranians to try to acquire armed drones,” Bloomberg reported.
An adviser to the Ukrainian president told Iran International on July 25 that it won’t be a surprise is Tehran provides military drones to Moscow.
“We have to view it in that perspective that Iran and Russia are allies in this conflict. In Ukraine, we obviously have no illusions about this. So, we are obviously very aware of what's going on, and we're going to be very careful about our relationship with Iran and what we hear from Iranian authorities when it comes to Ukraine,” Alexander Rodnyansky told Iran International.
An unconfirmed report quoting a Kyiv official last week said that Russia was already using Iranian drones in Ukraine.
US–based think tank Institute for the Study of War quoted an advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Office, Oleksiy Arestovych, as saying on Friday that Iran handed 46 drones over to Russia and that the Ukrainian government has already noted the use of these drones in combat in Ukraine.
Another embarrassing aspect of the satellite deal were media reports last week that Russia will control the Iranian satellite for a while and possibly use it for the war in Ukraine. Iranian officials responded to this on August 7, categorically stating that they will be in full control from Iran.
Many politicians and former officials who are loyal to the Islamic Republic have repeatedly warned in recent months not to tilt the country’s foreign policy toward Russia and China and try to resolve Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West. But the hardliners in Tehran have so far rejected this advice, refusing to accept a compromise deal worked out with European Union mediation in Vienna after 16 months of negotiations.
The subject of the supplement, Mahmoud Karimi, is one of favorite 'maddahs' or eulogists of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who during three decades of his leadership, has given a special status to religious eulogists. A status some grand ayatollahs sometimes covet.
Under Khamenei, maddahs who used to sing tragic songs in graveyards for families of the deceased or chant tragic stories during the mourning month of Muharram to earn a living, are now the Islamic Republic’s political theoreticians, influential figures in political groups and government offices. They can put anybody’s business on fast track, albeit against a fee, using their influence as individuals close to Khamenei.
Even at election times, associations of eulogists conduct propaganda for candidates for a fee. The closer the eulogist is to Khamenei, the higher are his fees and of course his influence. Karimi enjoying that status is one of the richest and most famous eulogists of Tehran.
In 2005, a hundred maddahs signed a petition calling on the nation to vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for president. Before that, in 1997 Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri used eulogists to help his campaign.
A maddah who can make Khamenei weep during the Muharram mourning ceremonies can do anything during the year.
According to Rouydad24 website which featured a long report on the status and activities of eulogists, they are highly active and terribly busy during the months of Muharram and Safar on the lunar calendar which coincide with the death anniversary of key Shiite saints.
Islamic Iran’s first leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini once said, “Islam (Shiism) is alive thanks to and because of these two months.” But eulogists do not just eulogize. They organize the Ashura and Arbaeen religious marches in the streets of Tehran and throughout the neighboring country of Iraq where they helped establish the Islamic Republic’s long reach.
Meanwhile, maddahs have been seen during protests since 2009 helping the IRGC to crack down on protesters. Mahmoud Karimi was one of them particularly in 2009. He is also famous for taking advantage of his position. Media reports in the 2010s include a story about him shooting at a driver who wanted to get past his car in one of Tehran’s tunnels.
Eulogists’ associations in downtown Tehran including the Islamic Coalition Party and the Mahdiyeh are famous for their political influence in hardliner circles and for bossing around state officials. Mansour Arazi, a renowned maddah is famous for using swear words against former Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani when he fell out with them, or when they fell out with Khamenei.
The 16-page supplement published by Iran newspaper on the first day of Muharram, was full of praise for Karimi. A singer who is not even the poet of what he sings. He is famous for copying, or as Iranian musicians say “covering” Bollywood movie songs with substandard Persian poetry. Sometimes, his eulogies have turned out to be controversial as he “covered” the famous songs of Los Angeles-based Iranian pop singers and moving to the beats of the music.
The extensive supplement includes an interview with Karimi’s mother as part of the publicity stunt. Meanwhile, the supplement quoted ultra conservative politician Saeed Jalili, the arch enemy of an agreement with the United States, as saying, “Principlists [ultraconservatives] have failed to value their friends. This supplement is a token of appreciation for one of their friends.”
Karimi is known for his verbal attacks on former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, an advocate of a nuclear deal with the United States.
Most maddahs are rich, thanks to their ties with men of power. In return, they protect politicians against rivals, but their main job is organizing and mobilizing mobs to attack opponents of hardliners or protesters perceived as threats to the regime’s core.