Sandstorm, Air Pollution Shut Down Tehran And Several Other Cities

A day after Fars claimed that Iran’s oil exports in 2022 will reach $36 billion, it published an article quoting senior officials that contrary to other reports, Iran relies very little on barter in exchange for its oil.

There have always been suspicions and some evidence that Iran did not receive much cash payments for its crude exports banned by United States’ sanctions, and it received goods, especially from China, its biggest customer. There was evidence during international sanctions from 2011-2016 that Iran imported sometimes useless merchandise instead of getting paid in cash for the illicit oil exports.

Fars quoted oil minister Javad Owji speaking in a television program, who said that “All oil incomes are received at the due date. We receive 80 percent in cash and we import medicines and essential goods with the remainder.”

Owji underlined that the 20 percent of barter was not imposed on Iran, but were cargos ordered based on need and expected quality of goods.

Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr, general manager of the National Oil Company of Iran confirmed the same information to Fars, but slightly in more vague terms. “Oil export income returns to the country, which means receivables are received,” he said.

Suspicions that Iran might not have been receiving cash for oil exports are reinforced by the financial hardship the government faces. Many government-sector workers have not been paid for months while the national currency has lost 25 percent of its value since March.

Facing a large budget deficit estimated to be at least a 50—percent shortfall, the government stopped food import subsidies in early May. Some officials have said the subsidy was costing $15 billion a year and was expected to reach $20 billion with rising global inflation.

The move pushed food and other prices higher in May and June bringing the overall official annual inflation rate to 55 percent while food prices rose by 80 percent compared with May 2021. This led to many protests around the country.

Fars said that oil revenues are collected in various ways as third-party US sanctions restrict Iran’s banking international banking options.

Creating new and undisclosed bank accounts, networking through the informal hawala system or money exchangers, using the potential of smaller banks, barter and receiving payment in the national currencies of oil importers were the main methods used, Fars said.

After former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, in May 2018 and imposition of sanctions, Iran’s oil exports declined to almost 10 percent of what they were before. The government relied on the National Development Fund, or its foreign currency reserves, to finance essential needs.

Amid its economic crisis, Iran has so far refused to make a deal with the United States to revive the JCPOA and lift the sanctions. This has led to demands by politicians and people for agreeing to the US terms and the hardliner government backed by the IRGC is engaged in a daily campaign to convince the public that overall situation is good and there is little need for a nuclear deal.

Oil exports began to recover in November 2020 as Joe Biden won the US election and signaled his intention to open talks with Iran to revive the JCPOA. Iran’s oil shipments kept rising in 2021 from around 250,000 barrels per day to more than 750,000, raising its income and claims that it had defeated US sanctions.

Citing a report by the mayor, Habib Kashani said on Sunday that Tehran municipality currently faces a deficit of 60 trillion rials or about $200 million only for the first two months of the Iranian year, which started on March 21. 

He predicted that the municipality will be forced to sell other properties, including Shahr-e Aftab (Sun City) Fairground complex -- covering an area of 120,000 square meters – and Hamshahri media institute that publishes one of the biggest national Persian-language dailies as well as dozens of other publications.

Kashani warned that it will be impossible to implement the plans and projects of the municipality if no income is earned in this critical period of time. 

Nasser Amani, another member of the City Council, criticized the mayor’s performance, saying that Alireza Zakani's report did not provide any details about what he had done to overcome the dire financial situation.

Since his controversial selection as the mayor of Tehran, the hardliner politician has frequently been criticized by the media and opponents for his poor performance, disorderly hirings, and nepotism. He is particularly accused of appointing individuals from his circle of friends and family such as the appointment of his son-in-law as his adviser.

They focused on opportunities for greater cooperation on regional issues in a phone call, in which Blinken also thanked Al Thani for Qatar’s continued assistance with Iran and Afghanistan diplomacy, as well as Qatar’s announcement of an additional $60 million to support the Lebanese Armed Forces.

The American diplomat lauded Qatar’s efforts in helping to continue efforts for attaining a mutual return to full implementation of the 2015 nuclear accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in particular for Doha hosting indirect talks between Tehran and Washington.

Brokered by the European Union, the two-day talks in the Qatari capital last week were aimed at breaking a months-long impasse in negotiations to restore the JCPOA, but ended without any tangible results.

Tehran blames Washington’s inflexibility to guarantee Iran’s economic benefit under the deal for lack of progress in the proximity talks, while US officials say, "The Iranians have not demonstrated any sense of urgency, raised old issues that have been settled for months.”

In a phone call with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, “The US side attended talks in Doha without an approach based on initiative and progress. Our assessment of Doha talks is positive but we should see how the US wants to seize this chance for diplomacy.”

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani paid an unannounced visit to Russia after Doha talks.

Speaking in an interview with Didban Iran [Iran Monitor] news website, the Esfahan University professor said that if protests continue in Iran they will turn out to be more dangerous for the country than a nuclear bomb.

Iran’s runaway inflation, currently at an annual rate of 55 percent, has impoverished a vast majority of the population and is seen as the result of a nuclear program that has brought on international and US sanctions for the past 15 years, crippling the economy.

Meanwhile, Renani added that because of the ongoing dissent, officials are losing their self-confidence and keep making hasty decisions secretly to cope with a multitude of problems.

He said revolutions have been constantly taking place in Iran for 110 years now. "The constitutional revolution of 1905, the Qajar Dynasty’s fall in 1920, the Iranian oil nationalization movement of the early 1950s and the Green Movement of 2009 against Islamic Republic policies have all been revolutions."

However, he added that all of those revolutions were the consequences of Iranian elites and leaders' inability to maintain dialogue among themselves and with the people.

Renani warned against the declining self-confidence of decisionmakers in Iran, adding that Iran is at a stage where too many crises happen at the same time. "In such a situation, the regime is entangled in a quagmire of instability, challenge, and wrong social and economic decisions. The only thing the government can do is fight fires: “Putting out fires here and there while ending up in a strange confusion as a result of its inefficiency," the economist said.

He was most likely referring to hurried decisions made by President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration to cope with the country's biggest economic crisis in its modern history. Those decisions including a desperate attempt to eliminate food subsidies and increase prices of essential commodities.

When these decisions led to a major crisis in early May and culminated in protests, the government announced various new measures including rationing bread, issuing coupons and promising higher cash handouts, while so far it has not able to do any one of those things. In the meantime, price kept rising and dissatisfaction has led to a situation hard to control or continue.

Since 2017, Renani has been leading a series of academic dialogues to discuss solutions to Iran’s problems. He says the "Development Dialogues" is an academic attempt to look for the missing give-and-take between the elites and the government during the past 110 years.

"Throughout this time, intellectuals thought that Iran can reach development only through regime change," he said. He added that Iranian academics are collecting some 50 different narratives that could determine the route to development. However, he regretted that "We have not been able to turn this into a real dialogue among those who pursue Iran's development."

"Unfortunately, many join the discussions only to prove themselves. They are not there to listen to others in order to correct their narratives. Some even refused to join the conversation to avoid possible criticism," he said, most likely pointing at lack of interest on the part of the officials to listen to critics.

Renani added that some 95 percent of private sector institutions in Iran are formed and maintained by less than five individuals each. "That is because we cannot talk to each other," he stressed.

Hossein Tayyebifar, who is the IRGC’s deputy for clerical affairs, made the remark during a ceremony to introduce the new representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Ardabil province, northwestern Iran, adding that such forces can defend the achievements of the Islamic revolution and its fundamental values and beliefs.

Khamenei had earlier ordered his supporters “to fire at will”, metaphorically giving a green light for religious zealots and security forces to act as they deem necessary. 

Where you feel that the central apparatus has a flaw and cannot manage a situation properly, fire at will; “It means you have to decide, think, find, move, act and yourself," Khamenei said in June 2017, which was interpreted as his permission to his supporters to deal with opposition. 

His remarks came as the Iranian government has handed a draft bill to parliament to ease the use of firearms by different security forces against civilians amid recurring protests while different organizations are taking up a notch their level of control over the society.

A letter obtained by Iran International shows that the prosecutor of Mashhad in northeastern Iran has ordered the city’s governor to prevent women not observing hijab rules from using the city’s subway, while the government is intensifying social restrictions, including closing cafés and detaining women for “improper” hijab.