Politicians Warn About Dictatorship Leading To Upheaval In Iran
Reformist politician and former presidential candidate Mostafa Hashemi-Taba says rising hardships in Iran might lead to mass protests and even ethnic conflicts.
Reformist politician and former presidential candidate Mostafa Hashemi-Taba says rising hardships in Iran might lead to mass protests and even ethnic conflicts.
Hashemi-Taba told Aftab News in Tehran that increasing economic pressure on people has led to social abnormalities and Iranians are feeling that authorities are not responsive to their demands. This can lead to a new wave of protests, he warned.
Hashemi-Taba said that there has been a lot of pressure on the Iranian middle class during the past few years and some sociologists even say that the middle class has been eliminated. As a result, the remaining affluent class have are facing the poor and this can have dangerous consequences.
"The problem is not simply one of class differences. The problem is that people are frustrated and there is no bright prospect for the future. When people are poor and frustrated at the same time, this means that they have nothing to lose," Hashemi-Taba said.
He said one of these consequences is migration from the villages to the marginal areas of large cities. He added that the problem will not be solved by distributing small handouts. "Giving away bread coupons will not solve the problem” he said.
He highlighted protests by workers from various sectors of the economy and asked how long people can remain patient. He also criticized officials who ignore the volatile situation and make statements to please top leaders, adding insult to injury.
Meanwhile, reformist lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian has told Ensaf New, a media outlet he owns, that Iran's current situation is similar to the former Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc in the final years before the collapse of Communism.
He said there are many lessons for decision-makers in Iran such as the collapse of Communist governments in East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Rumania and Bulgaria. There are many lessons in the history of that period for "the dictators, totalitarian rulers and those who are sure of themselves and think they are the only ones who know the truth."
The lawmaker made the comments after the picture of a book about the fall of the Soviet Union on his desk at parliament became controversial. The book was Revolution 1989, The Fall of the Soviet Empire (Victor Sebestyen). He also quoted the Koran as advising the people to go around the world and see what became of those who oppressed the people.
Pezeshkian said, he reads that book when he does not need to participate in parliamentary discussions, adding that he has also read other books during session, including Why Nations Fail (D. Asemoglu and J. A. Robinson) and the Narrow Road to Freedom (Michael Leitman) as well as religious books.
Pezeshkian said Eastern bloc countries failed because of the wrong behavior of totalitarian their totalitarian leaders. When rulers create dictatorships, societies tend to become chaotic. In such a situation, as soon as the government is weakened the society will rise and this leads to chaos and massacre, he argued.
Since 2018 Iranian cities have experienced major protests and the government's crackdown on protests led to hundreds of deaths as security forces fired military weapons into the crowds and often shot people to death at point blank range. During the latest protests in Iran in November, security forces used shotguns against farmers protesting the government's mismanagement of water resources, often shooting them in the face. During protests since 2017, “Death To the Dictator” has been a recurrent slogan by angry demonstrators.
In an interview with the conservative news website Nameh News, Mohammad Mohajeri said, "Some statements made by the government's supporters enrage the people," adding that "When people become angry their demands will increase, and this is costly for the government."
Hardliners recently often highlight multiple crises Iran faces, as a way to say that Raisi’s job is hard, and people should be patient. But the negative comments reflect badly on the regime itself, which many people see as incompetent.
Mohajeri was also talking about cases such as a lawmaker who told people not to listen to music or buy musical instruments and to leave the country if they don’t like the restriction. Other cases include statements by Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki who said he is not responsible for creating jobs.
Other examples of outrageous statements by hardliners include Mashad Friday Prayers Imam Ahmad Alamolhoda saying those who criticize clerics in the government should be punished for throwing stones at the prophet or the cleric who said on the state television that every Iranian couple should have 14 children. Even Supreme Leader Khamenei's chief political adviser Ali Akbar Velayati said people in Iran should wear aprons like the Yemenis and eat nothing but dried out bread.
Mohajeri said: "Some of the government supporters want a change in the people's lifestyle to reduce pressures that are being exerted on Raisi to solve [the current economic] crisis. But theseremarks prompt the people to have a negative attitude toward the government."
"Some of those who make such statements about people's private life are the members of the ultraconservative Paydari party who say these things only to milk the government. They are telling the government indirectly: Give us our share [of wealth and power]!" and we will defend you, said Mohajeri.
Another group of supporters are Raisi's uneducated friends, he said. "They think they are helping the government by making those outlandish remarks, but they are not aware that these statements backfire and will make Raisi’s weak government even weaker," he said. "We know that Raisi was elected in a low-turnout election and enjoys very little social support."
The third group, said Mohajeri, are Raisi’s real supporters. "They make these comments deliberately as they think they are still campaigning in the elections. What they do is magnify problems they say the previous government created” and blame the Rouhani administration for the country's multiple crises. “What they ignore is that the Raisi has been in office for six months now and the people are more likely to lash out at his administration for shortcomings," Mohajeri argueded, adding that sometimes claims made by this group are not true in the first place.
The commentator added that these three groups have different intentions. Yet the outcome of what they say is the same because whatever they say will eventually weaken Raisi, while he may not realize this and think that they are exerting pressure on his political rivals.
"There is an expiration date for comments that blame the previous government for the country's problems. After a while, nobody will believe them,” Mohajeri noted, as people tend to demand solutions from those who are in charge.
"Blaming the previous government will only increase people’s anger. And when they are angry, they demand things more insistently, and this will be even more costly for the current administration," Mohajeri stressed.
The highly acclaimed work, My Uncle Napoleon, was published in the early 1970s and was made into an extremely successful TV series. It was banned after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 but is still among the most sought after underground works of literature and film in Iran.
In Pezeshkad's novel set at the onset of the Second World War in Tehran, the small local wars that the main character of the book, a low-ranking officer once fought, gradually evolve into great wars against the British on par with the Napoleonic Wars. Uncle Napoleon's orderly, the simple and uneducated Mash Ghasem, not only begins to believe, or pretend to believe in the stories of Uncle Napoleon's heroic wars against the British, but also increasingly attempts to weave stories of his own heroism into it but the imaginary adventures only make the delusional patriarch the laughingstock of the family.
Pezeshkzad, a former French-educated judge and diplomat, captured the imagination of Iranian readers with his most vivid characters in a manner that no other contemporary author has. There is almost no one in Iran who is not familiar with his characters and its many famous catchphrases including, "It's the work of the British."
The main character of My Uncle Napoleon has gradually come into believing his own stories, identifying himself with Napoleon, and living in constant fear of British plots to kill, or failing that, to dishonor and discredit him. "It's the work of the British", the old man will say in the face of any mishap that befalls him or his family. Even a sex scandal involving a niece of the family in Uncle Napoleon's delusional mind, is cited as proof that there is a British conspiracy against him.
The fame of the book and its catchphrase is such that British diplomats in Iran in the years following the publication of the book came to know about it probably within the first few days from their arrival. Former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw even took inspiration from it to write a book entitled "The English Job: Understanding Iran and Why It Distrusts Britain".
Amongst British diplomats, there’s a poignant joke that ‘Iran is the only country in the world which still regards the United Kingdom as a superpower’. For many Iranians, it’s not a joke at all," an introduction to Straw's book said.
Nearly two centuries of Iranian politics, particularly the 19th century, was deeply influenced by the British-Russian embassies and their rivalries. Many Iranians still see the hand of the British in everything. Probably with the historical fear of the Iranians toward the British in mind, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2009 cast the blame for nationwide unrest following a disputed election on the British government. Hardliners claimed the British were behind the "sedition" against the Islamic
Pezeshkzad never singled out a real-life inspiration for the pathetic, delusional and bullying character who the children of the family including the narrator always called Uncle Napoleon amongst themselves. In a speech at the University of California, Los Angeles, Pezeshkad said the character originated in his memories of his childhood when grownups would indiscriminately label most politicians as "British lackeys".
Pezeshkzad made every episode of love or feud in Uncle Napoleon's family into funny, yet often very tender, narratives. His book, he told BBC Persian years ago, was inspired by the story of his own naive teenage love and memories from his own extended family. Pezeshkzad's book has been translated into several European languages including English.