Israel Says World Powers Should Exploit Iran's Weakness At Nuclear Talks

In recent months Israeli officials, nervous about a new agreement between the United States and Iran, have repeatedly said they will take action to defend their nation if Iran is believed to be close to producing a nuclear bomb.

But The New York Times reported Saturday that current and former Israeli military figures and experts doubt Israel has the capability to destroy or significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program, which is dispersed throughout the large country and some hidden underground.

Experts and officials said that a small-scale attack damaging parts of Iran’s infrastructure might be possible in months while a large attack would take two years to prepare and are currently beyond Israel’s capabilities. One former Israeli general said the only air force capable of a sustained attack is the US Air Force.

Since July 2020, many mysterious sabotage attacks have hit Iran’s sensitive installations, including two devastating explosions at Natanz uranium enrichment site, widely attributed to Israel. These have caused some slowdown, but Iran continues to enrich uranium at higher levels, getting closer to having enough fissile material for a bomb.

Mikhail Ulyanov, Russian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the official Tass news agency there was no clarity over the date but that his discussion with Robert Malley, the United States special envoy on Iran, “seems to be productive.”

"The pragmatic cooperation between our delegations in the course of the Vienna Talks is very important,” Ulyanov tweeted Friday after meeting with Malley. In his recent tweets Ulyanov has highlighted his contacts with Malley, and the Russian ambassador told Tass Friday he was “quite satisfied with the quality of our cooperation.”

Ulyanov said that both the US and Russia wanted to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and to lift “the US sanctions imposed under the Donald Trump administration.” Ulyanov said this was “the basis we can build cooperation on.”

But Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor. said Friday the talks in Vienna were “not going well,” and that Washington had communicated its “alarm” through the Europeans over Iran’s expanding nuclear program.

As the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran, Washington takes part only indirectly in Iran’s Vienna talks with remaining JCPOA signatories – China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom.

Ulyanov noted that lack of direct communication between the US and Iran in an interview with Iran International in Vienna December 12 and said the main responsibility for mediation lay with the European Union, whose senior official Enrique Mora chairs the talks.

On December 15, Ulyanov tweeted about a meeting of Russia, China, and the US on the sidelines of the talks. "As you can see [in the photo,] Russians sit together with Americans. But it has no political implications," he wrote. Ulyanov held a separate meeting with Malleythe same day.

Russia has long argued that the US should lift ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions and that Iran should scale back the aspects of its nuclear program, expanded since 2019, that contravene the JCPOA.

Ulyanov told Tass Friday the Russian delegation in Vienna was “ready to work without breaks.” He said there were two options for continuing talks: “either to resume the work on December 27, at least the expert level within the framework of the eighth round, or on January 3, when everyone is ready...”

The European troika – France, Germany, and Britain – said Friday Iran had asked for the new halt in the talks. The lead Iranian negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani told the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) Saturday that it has been agreed in advance that a break would be taken once “a draft of the agreement was made.”

Bagheri-Kani told reporters in Vienna Friday evening that the next round of talks could be the last: “We can reach an agreement in the shortest possible time.”

A senior Biden administration official told reporters on Friday, speaking on condition of anonymity, did not have a precise time for the breakout, which has been estimated to be a matter of months.

"But it's really short. It is unacceptably short," the official said, calling it "alarming".

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said later that the nuclear talks are "not going well" and US has communicated to Iran through Europeans its "alarm" over Iran's expanding nuclear program.

The official said Andrea Gacki, the Treasury Department's director of foreign asset control, was in the United Arab Emirates earlier this week urging private companies not to evade sanctions against Iran.

"If you are evading sanctions, the U.S. will have its eye very much on you. There will be consequences," the official said.

Iran last month said it has stockpiled well over 200 kilograms of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium, and continues purification of the fissile material. Ninety-percent enrichment is needed to use the material for producing a bomb, but the step from 60-percent enrichment to usable grade is relatively short.

With reporting by Reuters

Enrique Mora, the senior European Union official chairing formal meetings, told reporters he hoped talks would resume by the end of the year. "We don't have months, we rather have weeks to have an agreement,” he said.

Mora said that written proposals submitted this month by Iran had been incorporated into negotiations, which in seven rounds of talks since April have discussed reviving Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

“We are in a situation both in sanctions and nuclear, where difficult political decisions have to be taken,” Mora said. “It's going to be politically painful sometimes. And we don't have much time. So ... my plea, my call is for delegations to establish clear priorities, to come with an open and realistic situation of what can be achieved, and go for it."

The three JCPOA western European JCPOA signatories – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – issued a downbeat statement. "We hope that Iran is in a position to resume the talks quickly, and to engage constructively so that talks can move at a faster pace,” it read. “We are rapidly reaching the end of the road for this negotiation.”

While United States ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, imposed on Iran when the US left the JCPOA in 2018, remain at the crux of the Vienna talks, Tehran has increasingly directed criticism at the ‘E3,’ who they feel have moved closer to the US in recent months.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Friday that the talks in Vienna were “not going well,” and that Washington had communicated its “alarm” through the Europeans over Iran’s expanding nuclear program.

The official Iranian news agency IRNA suggested Friday that France in particular was playing a negative role, and that the E3 had coordinated with Israel, which was recently reported to have allocated $1.5 billion for a military attack on Iran and has been lobbying in Washington for a tougher approach.

Missing data

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Friday that data from an agency camera at Iran’s Karaj manufacturing site was missing. The camera was damaged in a drone attack in June widely blamed on Israel, and was one of several removed by Iran from the site. While Iran is not required to allow IAEA access under its safeguards agreement, the agency regards monitoring Karaj, which makes equipment for uranium enrichment, as important to assessing Iran’s program.

Iran and the IAEA agreed Wednesday that the agency would reinstall cameras as the site, although the IAEA would not receive the footage until agreement is reached in Vienna and the greater access required by the JCPOA restored.

The central challenge in the Vienna talks since they began in April is agreeing how Iran’s nuclear program, expanded and improved since 2019, can be returned to JCPOA limits, and exactly which US sanctions contravene the JCPOA and should be lifted as Washington returns to the deal.

The formal talks in Vienna involve the remaining JCPOA signatories – China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia and the United Kingdom – with the US taking part indirectly. China's chief negotiator, Wan Qun, said Friday he hoped talks would resume before the end of the year.

IRNA quoted an “informed source” in Vienna as saying that the United Kingdom, France and Germany (E3) have adopted a negative stance to the extent that even the United States is unhappy. The source claimed that the E3 are working to sabotage a restoration of the 2015 nuclear agreement, JCPOA.

The three European allies of the United States had criticized Tehran earlier in the week, saying so far in December no serious negotiations have taken place and time for restoring JCPOA is fast running out.

IRNA further claimed that France is particularly playing a negative role, including leaking negative information about the talks. It added that the E3 are coordinating their position in the negotiations with Israel and the two sides had discussion and mutual visits to chart the failure of the Vienna negotiations. IRNA said that the UK even wants a new agreement to replace JCPOA.

After a five-month break in the talks, Iran returned to the negotiating table on November 29, putting forth new demands and refusing to continue talks based on previous understandings.