Persian Gulf states pour billions into routes bypassing Hormuz

“If the blockade continues, we will target US economic interests 100 percent, with intensity and force,” Rezaei told Lebanon’s Al-Manar television.

Rezaei also warned Israel against resuming the war, saying any new conflict would be different from previous rounds.

“We will send Netanyahu to hell,” he said, adding that the Israeli prime minister had made “major mistakes” that had brought Israel closer to its end.

Tehran has taken a tougher stance since a ceasefire agreed in June failed to produce a broader agreement and the subsequent MoU expired, despite mounting economic problems and Washington’s recent announcement of an “economic D-Day” against Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is preparing to press G20 finance ministers next week to comply with Washington’s sanctions on Iran, according to AFP.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Tehran was “begging to make a deal,” declaring that “Iran Is a Failing Nation!” in a social media post.

Rezaei shrugged off Trump’s Operation Economic Fury, claiming Iran had already “broken the maritime blockade” during the ceasefire and exported between 70 million and 80 million barrels of oil.

He said oil sales had returned to pre-sanctions levels and that Tehran had established new export routes that were gradually expanding.

The US military rejected that claim hours later.

“Iran has exported zero oil from its shores since we resumed the naval blockade in mid-July,” US Central Command said, adding that other countries in the region had exported 750 million barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf during the same period.

Rezaei also said Iran and Oman had agreed on a shipping corridor running partly through Omani and partly through Iranian waters.

Commercial vessels would be allowed through a designated central channel in the Strait of Hormuz if the United States met Iran’s conditions, he said.

Rezaei added that mediators had asked Tehran to set out its conditions for reopening the strait and that Iran was preparing a list of demands, including an end to the war in the region.

The latest US pressure goes beyond broad restrictions on oil exports, increasingly targeting middlemen, front companies, financial channels and other mechanisms Tehran has relied on to keep foreign currency and goods flowing under sanctions.

Ehsan Movahedian, an international affairs analyst, described the approach as an attempt to choke Iran’s access to foreign currency, fuel inflation and deepen internal economic instability.

Other analysts writing in the moderate outlets Fararu and Donya-ye Eghtesad argue that with those traditional workarounds under growing pressure and no comprehensive alternative in place, Tehran may increasingly be forced to turn inward: tightening budgets, reducing subsidies, rationing scarce resources and curbing consumption.

But austerity presents the government with its own political dilemma. Measures that conserve resources and help Iran withstand sanctions would also transfer more of the cost of the confrontation to a population already struggling with inflation and utility shortages.

Iranian governments have long been wary of abruptly reducing subsidies for precisely that reason. A sudden increase in gasoline prices in November 2019 triggered nationwide protests that were met with a deadly crackdown, leaving authorities acutely aware of the political risks attached to measures that sharply increase household costs.

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have made clear that economic pressure will remain central to Washington’s Iran strategy.

In Tehran, the campaign is broadly perceived as an attempt to force capitulation rather than genuine negotiations, even though President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly said the two sides must eventually resolve their differences through talks.

Former diplomats Fereydoun Majlesi and Jalal Sadatian describe the current trajectory of Iran-US relations as one of strategic ambiguity and economic attrition, with neither an imminent diplomatic breakthrough nor a clear route out of the confrontation.

That uncertainty has sharpened disagreement over whether diplomacy can relieve the economic pressure before Tehran is forced to impose still greater costs at home.

Former ambassador Mohsen Pakaeen argued that the recent stream of regional mediators visiting Tehran was focused on the wrong capital.

The obstacle, he said, was Washington’s insistence on Iranian capitulation without offering credible concessions, meaning mediators seeking a breakthrough should concentrate their efforts on the United States.

Hardline voices, including the editor of the ultraconservative daily Kayhan, reject talks under economic pressure and push for a more confrontational posture capable of raising the costs for the United States and its regional partners.

The disagreement leaves Tehran confronting two related calculations: whether it can economically outlast Washington’s pressure campaign, and how much domestic hardship it can impose in doing so.

For advocates of greater economic resilience, austerity could preserve scarce government resources while buying Tehran time. But analysts also warn that the same measures could weaken domestic stability and ultimately undermine the negotiating position they are intended to protect.

China offers Iran its most important external economic lifeline, but also an uncertain one.

Majlesi and other observers argue that intensified US enforcement against buyers of Iranian goods increasingly overlaps with Washington’s wider economic competition with Beijing.

China remains crucial to Iranian trade, but Tehran cannot determine how much economic or political risk Beijing will ultimately accept on its behalf.

That leaves Iran with few easy alternatives. Informal trading networks can soften sanctions, regional diplomacy may eventually produce negotiations and austerity can stretch limited resources, but none provides a clear exit from a prolonged economic confrontation.

Austerity may therefore buy Tehran time, but not necessarily leverage. But the question is not only how long Iran’s economy can withstand Washington’s pressure, but how much more pressure its government believes Iranian society can bear.

Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani arrived on Thursday, following Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi on Tuesday and Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir on Monday, as regional powers seek to create a path toward de-escalation and renewed negotiations.

Al Thani’s visit, his first to Iran since the war began in late February, came after days of diplomacy focused partly on finding an arrangement over Hormuz that could provide an opening for broader talks.

He met President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and senior negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and security chief Mohsen Rezaei.

The messages he received reflected the competing currents shaping Tehran’s response to the diplomatic push.

Pezeshkian praised efforts by Qatar, Pakistan, Oman and other countries to promote peace and security in the region. He also pointed to factions in the United States, Israel and Iran that he said were trying to prevent agreements from taking shape, urging US officials to ignore voices opposed to a return to stability.

Ghalibaf told Al Thani that an economic blockade of Iran would be ineffective and said Washington should implement commitments made under the Islamabad memorandum.

Rezaei struck a more confrontational tone, warning that Iran would target US military and economic interests if Washington sought to “commit mischief” against Iran. He reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States met Tehran’s conditions.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said Al Thani discussed regional developments, efforts to reduce tensions and creating conditions for the resumption of dialogue between Tehran and Washington.

Mediators push for talks

The flurry of diplomatic activity has fueled speculation in Iranian media that Tehran and Washington could return to negotiations, although there is little indication that a breakthrough is imminent.

Iran Nuances, an English-language outlet apparently linked to Iran’s Foreign Ministry, argued that the succession of visits reflected concern among regional states that intensified economic pressure could produce wider instability rather than force Iran to capitulate.

The Iranian news agency ILNA was more cautious. In a commentary headlined “Can Qatar Unlock the Negotiations?”, it said the gap between Tehran and Washington remained too wide for Qatar’s mediation to be certain of success.

“If Iran considers lifting economic pressure and ending the blockade a precondition for any opening, while the United States continues to insist on increasing pressure, even activating Qatar’s mediation channels will not necessarily lead to the resumption of negotiations,” it said.

ILNA suggested that Doha could instead begin by mediating over de-escalation and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially creating an opening for wider negotiations.

Economic daily Donya-ye Eqtesad described the succession of regional visits as a form of “multi-layered diplomacy” aimed at developing a phased roadmap involving Iran, the United States and regional mediators, with maritime arrangements providing an initial route toward de-escalation.

But optimism in parts of the Iranian media contrasts sharply with Washington’s public posture.

US President Donald Trump told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that he was “not in a hurry” to resume negotiations with Iran and had set no timetable for ending the war. He said economic pressure and military action were proving effective.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that there were currently no negotiations between the United States and Iran and that all options remained on the table.

Fate of missing Iranian pilots

Al Thani’s visit also brought renewed attention in Tehran to the fate of Iranian pilots who went missing in March after their Sukhoi fighter jets were shot down over Qatar.

Iranian officials say three pilots survived after ejecting from their aircraft, were captured by Qatari forces and have been held there since.

Qatar strongly rejects that account. Doha says its search-and-rescue teams found the remains of one pilot and handed them to Iran, but that it has no information about the fate of the others.

Iran has requested that an Iranian Air Force expert team and the International Committee of the Red Cross become involved in determining their fate.

Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said Wednesday that if Qatar genuinely did not know what had happened to the pilots, it should make greater efforts to establish their whereabouts.

Fada-Hossein Maleki, a member of parliament’s National Security Commission, said Thursday that the lack of clarity over the pilots remained a source of tension with Doha and warned that any evidence they had been mistreated would affect bilateral relations.

Hardliners also seized on the issue during Al Thani’s visit, accusing Iranian officials of failing to press Qatar publicly over the pilots’ fate.

Hojjat Niki-Maleki identifies himself on LinkedIn as chairman of Digikala Group, having joined the board as a representative of Harakat Aval, the investment arm of the mobile operator MCI. An official company filing lists him as a board member without specifying the chairmanship.

The change dates to June 10 but became public only when the formal notice was published this week, according to the Iranian technology outlet Digiato.

Niki-Maleki previously headed communications for the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order, commonly known as Setad, a conglomerate built largely on property confiscated after the 1979 revolution, controlled by the office of the supreme leader and under US sanctions. He also spent more than four years on MCI's board.

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His earlier work was in hardline media. He ran Afsaran, an online platform that promoted anti-Western messaging and the authorities' concept of a cultural "soft war."

His social media history also shows an affinity with the military establishment: in January 2020 he posted a photograph of himself seated beside Qasem Soleimani, then commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, on an aircraft.

"I told him I was the son of a martyr, and his respect for me doubled," he wrote, describing Soleimani embracing him at an airport. "The sweet taste of my conversation with Haj Qasem is still with me."

Hojjat’s father, Hossein Niki-Maleki, was a member of the security team aboard Iran Air Flight 655, which was shot down by the United States in 1988.

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Boycott calls

The appointment prompted calls on Persian-language social media to stop shopping at Digikala, with critics pointing to his Setad connection, his politics and his role promoting Iran's domestic Covid-19 vaccine.

"Do not buy from Digikala. This is something you can do," one user wrote on X, arguing that purchases would ultimately help finance Revolutionary Guards missiles and drones.

Another framed the appointment as part of a wider expansion of state-linked influence over the company.

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Much of the criticism returned to the vaccine. Niki-Maleki worked for Setad when its pharmaceutical arm developed CovIran Barekat, the domestically produced Covid-19 vaccine that authorities promoted during the pandemic, and he repeatedly used his own accounts to publicize its production and effectiveness.

That program became politically charged after the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei barred imports of American and British vaccines in January 2021. Critics argued that relying on domestic production delayed access to sufficient doses while Iran struggled to vaccinate its population, and some hold the officials who promoted it responsible for deaths that followed, a charge they have never accepted.

"He used to come here every day two years ago and hashtag that there would soon be good news and we would make a coronavirus vaccine," one user wrote.

About 150,000 people died from the pandemic across Iran, one of the heaviest official tolls in the region. Turkey, with a population of similar size, recorded roughly 100,000. Saudi Arabia reported fewer than 10,000 and the United Arab Emirates around 2,400. What each of those countries did have was early access to Western vaccines, the ones Iran's Supreme Leader had ruled out.

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A pattern, not an appointment

The reaction reflects something larger than one board seat: a sequence of events that has moved Iran's most prominent private technology company steadily closer to the state.

Digikala was founded in 2006 by the brothers Hamid and Saeid Mohammadi and grew into the country's dominant online marketplace, the most recognizable business to emerge from Iran's private technology sector.

The pressure began in the summer of 2023, when police sealed its offices after photographs circulated of female employees without compulsory hijab.

In February 2024, the judiciary filed charges over products it said insulted Islamic sanctities, after users circulated images of mugs sold on the site bearing the name Fatemeh Zahra, the daughter of the Prophet Mohammad. The company's chief executive, Masoud Tabatabai, was arrested on the order of the security prosecutor's office and released hours later pending further appearances. Pro-government vigilantes painted threatening messages on the company's building.

That same month, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of Kayhan and Khamenei's representative at the newspaper, said management of digital companies such as Digikala and the ride-hailing platform Snapp would "fortunately" be transferred to those "who serve the state."

Negotiations over a stake in Digikala also began in that period. They concluded this spring, when Harakat Aval, MCI's venture capital arm, bought 40 percent of Digikala Group in cash, taking over the holding of the venture firm Sarava Pars along with parts of other shareholdings.

The agreed valuation was 300 trillion rials, about $146 million at current market rates, in what the company called the largest investment in the history of Iran's digital economy.

Digikala said the founders would retain 22 percent and two of five board seats, along with executive management, business strategy and the selection of senior managers, and that no single shareholder would control the company.

MCI's own ownership is the point critics return to. Iran's largest mobile operator is a subsidiary of the Telecommunication Company of Iran, privatized in 2009 in a sale to a consortium widely reported to be linked to the Revolutionary Guards.

Niki-Maleki's appointment points to a wider shift in Iran's digital economy: the steady expansion of state-linked institutions into businesses built as private enterprises – which is also why a prediction made in a hardline newspaper in 2024 reads today less like a threat than a schedule.

The US president told Al Jazeera he had set no deadline for ending a conflict now in its seventh month.

"I have no time schedule, none," he said, calling economic warfare and military strikes against Iran "both effective."

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  What Operation Economic Outcast means for Iran, and for everyone trading with

His remarks followed Monday's launch of Operation Economic Outcast, a Treasury campaign that named nearly 60 Iran-linked individuals, entities and vessels and widened the threat of secondary sanctions against anyone still doing business with Tehran.

Iran points to economic toll

Iranian officials are now describing the pressure in language they avoided for months.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was facing "the worst conditions of an economic war." Executive Vice President Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah said domestic gasoline production was insufficient and the US naval blockade was preventing imports.

“Continuing on this path is impossible,” Ghaempanah said.

Tehran is fighting the campaign diplomatically as well. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on the United Nations to condemn Operation Economic Outcast as "economic terrorism," saying its purpose was to sever Iran's lawful economic ties through secondary sanctions and exclusion from the US financial system.

The confrontation has also pulled in Beijing. China said on Tuesday that its economic cooperation with Iran was conducted within international law and should not be disrupted, rejecting what it called illegal unilateral sanctions.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf welcomed that position, saying Iran-China ties "need no one's permission."

Hormuz remains the leverage

While conceding the economic damage, it also showed no sign of softening its position on the Strait of Hormuz.

Revolutionary Guards spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said Iran and Oman had reached understandings on their respective shares of the strait's waters and revenues after about a month of talks.

That went further than the joint Iranian-Omani statement issued on Tuesday, which announced an interim framework for a temporary shipping corridor and joint mine-clearing but said nothing about revenues. A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Wednesday that no final agreement had been reached.

The effect on shipping was visible the same day. An Indian tanker attempting the southern route through the strait turned back after an Iranian warning, according to the Revolutionary Guards-affiliated Fars news agency, which said the route had carried no traffic in the previous 24 hours.

Mohebi set the price plainly. "If the United States stops obstructing and returns to the memorandum, we can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the understanding reached," he said. Otherwise, he said, it stays closed.

Diplomacy continues in parallel

Regional governments are still working to keep a route open.

Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, travels to Tehran on Thursday for talks on reducing tensions and creating conditions for dialogue.

Qatar said the discussions would cover freedom of navigation in the strait and efforts to restore the conditions that prevailed before February 28, when the 40-day war began.

Washington continues to describe a negotiated outcome as preferable even while expanding the economic campaign.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday that the administration's "strong desire" was to end Iran's nuclear program through negotiations and inspections administered by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"Our number one objective is they will not possess nuclear weapons," Wright said. "If we can do it through negotiation and inspections, that is absolutely the desired way."

He added that Washington was prepared to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and industrial capacity by military means if necessary.