The latest Worldwide Threat Assessment by the US intelligence community says the economic, political and social drivers of discontent in Iran remain intact and could fuel further unrest.
The report says Iran’s economy continues to struggle with low growth, exchange-rate volatility and high inflation, trends likely to persist without sanctions relief.
The assessment also says Operation Epic Fury has “almost certainly” curtailed Iran’s ability to project power, though Tehran continues to rely on remaining capabilities—including advanced ballistic missiles, drones and allied regional networks.
Looking ahead, the report says the eventual end of the conflict with Iran could prompt major regional actors to reassess longstanding assumptions and alliances, including their relationships with Israel and their level of commitment to the US-backed Gaza peace initiative.
US intelligence analysts also assess that Israeli leaders are likely to continue proactive—and at times provocative—military action to deter regional adversaries. If Iran’s leadership endures, Israel is expected to use all available means to prevent Tehran from rebuilding capabilities degraded during the 12-Day War and Operation Epic Fury.
