Iran unrest nearing 'critical threshold' as strikes spread - SpecialEurasia

SpecialEurasia, an open-source intelligence and forecasting outlet, said in a report updated Tuesday that Iran’s internal security situation has reached what it called a “critical threshold” as economic grievances merge into broader political defiance.

The report said strikes and demonstrations have spread from Tehran’s commercial center to major cities, driven by a falling currency, resource shortages and renewed international pressure.

It said the protest tone has shifted from trade-related complaints to political slogans, which it described as a sign of weakening legitimacy among parts of the merchant class.

SpecialEurasia said the government appears to favor dialogue, while the security apparatus is preparing for “extended internal strife.”

The report linked the unrest to tightened external constraints and domestic shortages, highlighting risks from water and energy disruptions that could widen the protest base beyond traders.

It also warned that heavier policing could raise the risk of deaths and follow-on demonstrations, and that Iran’s internal instability could shape regional calculations by outside actors.