Iran war predictions 'overheated' as key military leaders are dead, US official says

“The Trump Admin is clearly into some major preparations for possible military action vs Iran,” former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro said on X.

“These steps don't necessarily mean military action is imminent. Still time for talks, it takes time to move people out.”

“But these are steps that it would make sense to take as part of preparations, and to show seriousness. Provides important leverage in nuclear talks,” he said on Wednesday.

Democratic lawmakers on the sidelines of the Trump administration's high-stakes nuclear talks with Iran largely hope for their success but lament being cut out of a process playing out behind closed doors.

While hawkish Republicans and a lone Democratic Senator John Fetterman have vocally questioned Iran's nuclear intentions as Trump has pushed for harsher terms, mainstream members of the caucus have mostly kept mum.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Iran International "that a future agreement must be stronger than its predecessor—enforceable in a lasting way, with real consequences for violations.”

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While hawkish Republicans and a lone Democratic Senator John Fetterman have vocally questioned Iran's nuclear intentions as Trump has pushed for harsher terms, mainstream members of the caucus have mostly kept mum.

Trump in 2018 exited an international deal inked under Democratic President Barack Obama, much to the party's consternation, but its leadership has signaled cautious backing for a new stronger deal.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries last week blessed the diplomatic effort but questioned why Congress was not being briefed.

"With respect, we don't have a great deal of visibility into what President Trump is trying to accomplish in terms of the current negotiations with Iran," the New York representative said.

"Iran should never be allowed to become nuclear capable, and ... (a deal) should be longer and stronger than what had previously existed, and should be done in a manner that is verifiable and resilient."

Jeffries told Iran International "that a future agreement must be stronger than its predecessor—enforceable in a lasting way, with real consequences for violations.”

The crux of the dispute in talks appears to center around enrichment. While Obama's deal allowed limited uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, a toughened line by Trump's negotiators demands a total halt - a scenario Tehran has repeatedly rejected.

Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was more critical of the administration's handling of the key foreign policy issue.

"As far as I know the administration has provided zero briefing to this committee on the negotiations, so they seem to be happening totally in secret," Murphy told Iran International.

"I think that's pretty dangerous for the American people to be kept in the dark about these negotiations, especially really sensitive negotiations that involve a potential nuclear war," he added.

Democrat maverick

Republicans, by contrast, who appear to have no more formal briefing than their counterparts across the aisle have consistently expressed in news interviews and social media posts a reticence to trust Iran in a new agreement.

Perhaps the harshest line on Iran has been taken not by Republican but by Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, a strident advocate of Israel who suggested on X last week that Washington should bomb its way out of the Iran impasse.

His remarks hinted that Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile should be hit with a US bunker-buster bomb.

While bellicose Republican rhetoric toward Iran is familiar territory, a sitting Democrat openly advocating for preemptive military action is almost unprecedented in the post-Iraq invasion era.

According to an aide close to Fetterman who spoke to Iran International on condition of anonymity, he views Iran’s nuclear program as a “ticking time bomb.”

Fetterman, the aide added, believes any delay in confronting Iran militarily could leave both the United States and Israel with fewer and riskier options in the future.

An Israeli preemptive strike would be a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to, in his words, “obliterate” the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.

The emergence of Fetterman’s hawkish line has intensified long-standing tensions within Democratic ranks over the use of military power and America’s strategic posture in the Middle East.

For Democrats, Fetterman’s rhetoric adds a new layer of complexity as the party seeks to re-establish a distinct foreign policy identity in opposition.

While they seek to articulate a position that contrasts meaningfully with the Trump administration, avoiding internal fragmentation or policy incoherence will be key.

Iran and the United States are facing a deepening deadlock in nuclear negotiations, increasing the risk of military conflict, senior analyst Morad Vaisi wrote Sunday in a piece for Iran International.

Vaisi outlined ten key developments that have “darkened the prospects of reaching an agreement and made war more realistic.” He pointed to intensified rhetoric between leaders, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei calling Iran’s enrichment program “none of their business,” and Donald Trump responding that Iran would “never be allowed to enrich uranium.”

Vaisi wrote that no new rounds have taken place since the fifth session in Rome, describing the halt as “a clear indication of a sharp decline in the trajectory of the talks.”

Although the US briefly paused the imposition of new sanctions through a directive, it quickly reimposed them after Khamenei’s remarks, targeting financial networks tied to Iran.

Trump’s appointment of Admiral Brad Cooper as CENTCOM commander also signaled heightened readiness, Vaisi wrote, citing his experience within the region.

Vaisi added that growing European pressure on Israel over the Gaza conflict may push the Jewish state to shift the focus by escalating tensions with Iran, especially as Israeli officials warn that future opportunities to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities may be limited.

“The last hope to avoid a military confrontation,” he wrote, “may rest on a possible visit by Vladimir Putin to Tehran.”

As nuclear talks with the United States remain stalled and sanctions continue to choke its economy, Iran is intensifying its eastward pivot by leveraging its full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to deepen economic and strategic ties across Central and South Asia, according to an analysis by Al-Monitor

Central Bank of Iran Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin this week proposed the creation of a joint SCO bank during a central bankers’ summit in Beijing. He said the initiative would reduce reliance on Western institutions like the IMF and World Bank and foster a multilateral financial platform among Eastern states.

Since joining the SCO in July 2023, Iran has pursued trade, infrastructure, and defense partnerships with members such as China, Russia, and India, positioning itself as a regional hub.

Tehran implemented a free trade deal with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in May, aiming to boost trade to $12 billion and reinforce its role in transport corridors like the North-South Transport Corridor.

“Iran has always identified as a West Asia country looking with interest to Central Asia,” Roberto Neccia, an independent Iran analyst, told Al-Monitor.

“If nuclear talks with the United States fail to produce a comprehensive agreement, “Iran will increase its projection to the region, fully exploiting its potential,” said Neccia.

Geneva-based strategic adviser Torek Farhadi said, “Central Asian states are landlocked, and from a geo-economic standpoint, Iran offers them access to the Persian Gulf.”“There is no real substitute for sanctions relief — the talks remain vital.”