Tehran to cut water for 12 hours to high users ignoring warnings

“Packaging costs rose in some cases by 200%, and freight charges climbed 55%,” said Ahmadreza Bakhshi.

“When you add the removal of subsidized foreign exchange, overlapping import platforms, and VAT enforcement, it's clear why food production has become dramatically more expensive,” he added.

Iran’s economic crisis has worsened across all sectors. The rial has hit a historic low, with US dollar being exchanged at 1,050,000 rials. Inflation continues to climb, making everyday goods unaffordable amid misgovernance and Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy to intensify sanctions.

Bakhshi pointed to the currency's near-daily loss of value. “Every day, our currency loses value,” he said. “These factors made the cost of production higher in the second half of the year than the first.”

The timing made matters worse. With Nowruz and Ramadan coinciding at the end of the year, demand for food items spiked well beyond levels seen in the same period the previous year, Bakhshi said.

Over the past five years, tens of millions of Iranians have seen their living standards erode as wages fail to keep pace with soaring inflation. Today, the average worker earns roughly $120 per month, while official estimates suggest that a minimum of $500 is needed for the basic survival of a family of three.

While the Trump administration has previously used tariff hikes as leverage against nations it regarded as rivals, this approach has little impact on Iran, which exported only $6.2 million worth of goods to the US last year and just $2.2 million in 2023.

However, secondary tariffs could pose a serious threat to Iran. Under this mechanism, the US could target countries that import sanctioned Iranian goods by imposing tariffs on their exports to the American market.

This is particularly significant given that, according to Iranian customs data, about 83% of Iran’s non-oil exports go to seven countries: China, Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. With the exception of Afghanistan, all have substantial trade ties with the US. Continued commerce with Iran could jeopardize their access to the American market.

This issue presents two major challenges for Iran. First, it threatens the country’s ability to export sanctioned goods—such as oil, petrochemicals, and metals—to key markets. Second, it disrupts Iran’s strategy of using trade partners to rebrand these goods and reroute them to third countries.

In the first 11 months of the last Iranian fiscal year, which ended on March 20, Iran exported $43 billion worth of goods to these seven key countries. Meanwhile, according to the US Census Bureau, those same countries exported over $550 billion worth of goods to the United States in 2024—more than 11 times the value of their imports from Iran.

Take China, for example. Iranian customs data show it imported around $13.8 billion in non-oil goods from Iran during that period. In addition, tanker tracking data indicate that China received approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude and fuel oil--worth an estimated $40 billion.

Although China benefits from steep discounts on Iranian petroleum and non-oil goods, it exported $427 billion worth of goods to the US last year--highlighting the potential cost of secondary tariffs.

Rebranding Iranian products

The gap between Iran’s official trade figures and those reported by its key trading partners suggests that a substantial share of Iranian exports is being rebranded and re-exported as if originating from those countries.

For example, Iranian customs recorded $13.8 billion in non-oil exports to China over the first 11 months of the last fiscal year, yet China’s Customs data show only $4.44 billion in non-oil imports from Iran for all of 2024. Similarly, Iran reported $6.4 billion in exports to Turkey, but Turkish data—including natural gas—registered just $2.45 billion in imports from Iran. The discrepancy persists with India: Iranian data show $1.8 billion in exports, while India’s Ministry of Commerce reported only $718 million in imports from Iran.

Iraq, the UAE, Pakistan, and Afghanistan do not publish detailed trade statistics. However, Iran's reliance on countries like the UAE for rebranding sanctioned goods and rerouting them to global markets appears highly likely.

As noted, Iran’s foreign trade is concentrated in a small group of countries. This concentration means that imposing US tariffs on those re-exporting Iranian sanctioned goods would not be especially difficult.

Another key point is that US sanctions extend well beyond crude oil. They also target Iranian exports of petroleum products (such as liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG), petrochemicals, metals, and more. These items make up the majority of Iran’s non-oil exports.

In the first 11 months of the last fiscal year, Iran exported over $10 billion in LPG, $13 billion in petrochemicals, $10 billion in metals (especially steel, aluminum, and copper), and $5 billion in gas. These four categories alone accounted for 70% of Iran’s non-oil exports, with nearly all shipments headed to the seven countries mentioned above.

According to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Fars News Agency, the ministry reported high lithium concentrations in brine in Qom Salt Lake, Khor in Iran's Central Desert, and Tarud in Semnan Province.

Fars suggested that these findings could position Iran as a key player in the global lithium mining industry, although the scale of the discovered deposits pales in comparison to those controlled by the world's top ten lithium producers.

An official from the Presidential office’s Mines Working Group reported that with a lithium concentration of 60–70 ppm, this deposit would yield only 500–600 tons of lithium—far from the claim that Iran had discovered 20% of the world’s lithium.

The world’s major lithium reserves are found in the "Lithium Triangle" (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile), while Australia leads in hard-rock lithium mining. The latest data ranks Bolivia as the top holder of lithium reserves, with an estimated 23 million tons. With usable reserves close to 14 million tons, the US ranks third in the world.

Due to security restrictions, Iranian government websites are inaccessible from outside Iran. However, Fars reported that the findings stem from a year-long study conducted in collaboration with Russian experts using advanced technologies such as ICP-OES. According to Fars, this study confirms the presence of lithium reserves with globally competitive concentrations.

The Fars report on March 12 has been widely republished by Iranian media and amplified on social media, especially by accounts linked to hardliners that claim Iran is on the brink of a "Green Lithium Revolution." Such claims are often used as a means to create optimism among the population as the country's economy continues to deteriorate.

This is not the first time that exaggerated claims about Iran’s lithium resources have circulated. In November 2024, a very well-known ultra-hardliner and vigilante, Hossein Allahkaram, said in an online debate that Iran held the fourth-largest reserves of lithium in the world, even suggesting that Elon Musk sought negotiations with Iran.

Similar misinformation spread in February 2023 when Iran’s official news agency IRNA quoted a ministry official, Ebrahim-Ali Molabeigi, claiming the discovery of 8.5 million tons of lithium in Hamedan Province.

Global excitement over the report faded after it was revealed to be a misinterpretation. The actual discovery was 8.5 million tons of hectorite clay containing lithium, not pure lithium reserves.

Lithium plays a crucial role in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles, smartphones, laptops, and energy storage systems. While it is primarily extracted from salt lake brines and hard rock deposits, alternative sources such as clay deposits and geothermal brines are not yet widely used for commercial production.

Footage received by Iran International shows smoke rising from the pumping station early Saturday, following a rally by farmers demanding access to Zayandeh Rud water — a long-promised resource they say has been diverted elsewhere.

“There’s been no release of water into the river despite repeated promises,” said one farmer at the protest, adding that local agriculture has been devastated by years of inaction.

Farmers in Isfahan have repeatedly accused the government of diverting their water to other provinces, particularly Yazd, while their own access to Zayandeh Rud — once the lifeblood of regional farming — remains restricted. The issue has sparked protests for years, often met with a heavy security response.

The disruption has triggered a major water emergency in Yazd, which is now facing what officials describe as red-level shortages for the population of well over half a million.

Mohammad-Javad Mahjoubi, head of Yazd’s regional water authority, said the pipeline was completely shut off after the attack and warned there was no estimate for when it might resume.

Jalal Alamdari, the managing director of Yazd’s water utility, described the situation as critical and confirmed that 13 mobile tankers had been deployed across the province.

Isfahan is considered one of the most critically affected provinces in Iran in terms of water scarcity, and the people of this region have repeatedly gathered and protested against the inefficient management of the Islamic Republic in addressing the issue.

In some cases, the protests have been met with repression by Iran's security forces. The first major act of sabotage on the pipeline occurred in 2012, tensions only intensifying since.

Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni acknowledged the broader crisis last week, calling water scarcity a “serious national issue” and urging citizens to cut back on usage.

Two overnight earthquakes, measuring 3.0 and 3.3 in magnitude, struck Varamin—a densely populated and impoverished town southeast of Tehran—on March 14. While the tremors were felt in the southern parts of the capital, no casualties were reported.

Just a day before the incident, a member of Iran's International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) warned that Tehran was at greater risk than ever of experiencing a devastating earthquake.

Seismologist Fariborz Nateghollahi cautioned that a magnitude 7.0 earthquake could result in up to six million casualties. He also criticized the government’s crisis management efforts, highlighting the lack of preparedness and inadequate training for such a disaster.

Tehran’s seismic vulnerability

Greater Tehran, now home to over 10 million people, sits in a seismically active region with three major fault lines and many smaller ones.

A study conducted in collaboration with the Japan Cooperation Agency (JICA) a few years ago found that these fault lines have the potential to trigger earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher, potentially destroying up to half of the city's buildings.

Seismologists, including Nateghollahi, have repeatedly warned that based on historical seismic cycles, any of these fault lines could become active at any time soon.

A 2018 IIEES study estimated a 40–70% probability of a major earthquake within a 100-kilometer radius of central Tehran in the next two to 12 years.

The last major earthquake in what is now Greater Tehran occurred in 1830, with a magnitude of 7.1, striking Shemiran—a small village at the time. Over the past few decades, Shemiran has transformed into one of the capital’s most affluent districts, now filled with high-rises, government buildings, and shopping malls.

High-risk areas

The southeastern part of Tehran, also situated on a major fault line, is considered the city’s most vulnerable area. It is characterized by densely packed old buildings and narrow streets, which would severely hinder rescue operations in the event of a major earthquake.

Additionally, the region has suffered from land subsidence due to a drastic decline in underground water levels over the past few decades.

A capital under strain

Authorities say the 47 percent drop in rainfall in Tehran province, the worst in the past 57 years, has seriously depleted the water reserves of several dams that supply the city’s drinking water. Images published in recent weeks showed that Karaj dam, one of the largest, had almost completely dried up. The dams also contributed to electricity generation to feed the capital, which has been experiencing regular power cuts in the past few months.

Iranian authorities, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have on various occasions spoken of the need to relocate the country's capital due to its extreme vulnerability to major earthquakes.

In recent years, a shortage of water resources, land subsidence due to a decline in underground water levels, and air pollution have also become serious threats to the survival of the capital, established in 1786.

A history of devastation

Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, with approximately 575 identified fault lines. Earthquakes of varying intensity are common, often resulting in significant casualties and destruction.

In 1990, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck Manjil and Roudbar in the Caspian mountains, killing between 35,000 and 50,000 people. Thirteen years later, a 6.6 magnitude earthquake devastated the southeastern city of Bam, claiming at least 34,000 lives.