US sanctions Swedish gang for alleged aid to Iranian attacks abroad

“When he was president last time, Iranian oil exports shrunk down to very modest levels. Biden didn’t remove those sanctions, but he stopped enforcing them," Chris Wright told Bloomberg on Monday.

“That enriched Iran. And now we’ve seen what’s happened with the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas. It’s been mayhem. So is President Trump looking to stop the mayhem and bring peace to the world? Absolutely. Can we afford the squeezing off of Iranian oil exports? Absolutely.”

The move would be part of Trump’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign, aimed at cutting Iran’s oil exports to zero in a bid to force Tehran into talks over its nuclear program.

Last week, Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers under an international accord designed to curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Washington has blacklisted more than two-thirds of the 150 vessels that transported Iranian crude last year.

More than half of the tankers sanctioned by the United States have ceased operations outside Chinese or Iranian terminals, an investigation by Iran International revealed last month.

US sanctions on tankers and companies involved in Iran's oil trade are slowing shipments to China but trade with one of Iran's most important allies continues in 'dark mode' in spite of maximum pressure, according to a Bloomberg report on Sunday.

Despite possessing the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, Iran faces domestic shortages due to insufficient investment in South Pars and holds only a small share of the global export market.

Iran’s Petropars, along with the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), MAPNA Group, and Oil Industries Commissioning and Operation, signed a $17 billion contract this week to implement pressure-boosting measures in South Pars. Notably, these same Iranian entities signed a similar agreement a year ago, but for undisclosed reasons, a new contract was signed again.

This shared field with Qatar, which holds 14 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves on the Iranian side, has entered the second half of its lifespan and has been experiencing pressure and production decline since 2024. Without the installation of pressure-boosting facilities, its output is expected to drop by 10 billion cubic meters annually, unable to meet even domestic needs.

Previously, France’s Total, China’s CNPC, and Iran’s Petropars had signed a $5 billion contract to develop Phase 11 of South Pars and install a pressure-boosting facility. However, after the US withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, both Total and CNPC abandoned the project. Half of the contract’s budget was allocated for drilling wells and constructing offshore pipelines to produce 50 million cubic meters of gas per day (mcm/d) at phase 11, while the other half was designated for building a 20,000-ton platform—15 times larger than existing platforms in South Pars—equipped with two massive 60-megawatt compressors and other facilities.

To maintain current production levels, South Pars requires 15 massive platforms and 30 large compressors, valued at approximately $37 billion.

Following Total's exit, which, along with a handful of Western firms, possessed the technical capability to construct such equipment, CNPC also withdrew, leaving Petropars solely responsible for the development. Consequently, Phase 11 of South Pars currently produces far below the targeted 50 million cubic meters, as the Iranian company has failed even to drill the necessary wells.

In the past decade, Petropars also developed Phase 12 of South Pars, aiming for 85 mcm/d production capacity. However, a confidential document from the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), seen by Iran International, reveals that current production from this phase stands at half that amount. On the other hand, Petropars relocated one of Phase 12’s platforms to Phase 11 instead of construction of new platforms for Phase 11.

Aside from Petropars, which has demonstrated poor performance in Phases 11 and 12, the Khatam al-Anbiya has signed dozens of oil and gas contracts with the Iranian government over the past years, none of which have been successfully implemented.

MAPNA, Iran’s largest thermal power plant contractor, is responsible for manufacturing compressors under the $17 billion pressure-boosting contract. However, in recent years, due to its inability to build compressors for high efficient combined-cycle plants, many of the power plants it constructed could not be converted into combined-cycle type, leading to severe electricity shortages in Iran.

It remains unclear how a company that has failed to produce power plant’s turbine compressors intends to manufacture huge compressors for South Pars' pressure-boosting project.

Despite holding the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia, Iran faces a massive gas shortage, which will worsen as South Pars' pressure continues to decline.

A document from Iran’s Oil Ministry, reviewed by Iran International, indicates that even if the $17 billion contract with domestic companies is implemented, it will only slow down the production decline in the Iranian section of South Pars—but the decline will continue nonetheless.

The Challenge of pressure decline in South Pars

An Iranian-born offshore platform designer working with Western companies—who has been involved in projects in the Qatari section of South Pars since last year— told Iran International that pressure-boosting for such a massive field is extremely complex, and it is unlikely that Iranian companies have the capability to execute such a project.

Due to the sensitivity of the issue, he requested anonymity but explained that gas production from this field has so far relied on the reservoir’s natural pressure of 120 atmospheres. Iran has merely drilled wells and laid pipelines to directly transport gas and condensates to onshore refineries: "But now, massive platforms—15 times larger than the standard platforms currently operating in South Pars—must be constructed. These platforms must be equipped with gas-liquid separation facilities so that gas can be transported using massive compressors, while condensates are separately pumped to onshore refineries using high-power pumps. Additionally, power plants must be installed on these platforms to provide the necessary electricity for the compressors and pumps”.

He said that only a handful of Western companies possess this technology, such as France’s Total and Germany’s Siemens, both of which have implemented pressure-boosting in the Qatari section of South Pars.

Details of Iran’s $17 billion contract with the four domestic companies indicate that instead of constructing 20,000-ton platforms, Iran plans to build smaller 4,000–5,000-ton platforms but in greater numbers. Additionally, the compressors planned for these platforms will have a capacity of 30 megawatts—only half the size of the massive compressors required.

However, Iran has no prior experience even in building even 4,000–5,000-ton platforms, and officials have stated that they are still working on developing the necessary infrastructure for such construction.

Esmail Baghaei, the ministry's spokesperson, responded to a reporter’s question during his weekly briefing on Monday, saying, “I will answer your long question with a short response: No letter has been received.”

President Trump revealed on Friday that he had sent a letter to Khamenei, offering negotiations while warning of military consequences if talks failed. Speaking to Fox Business Network, Trump said, “There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily or through a deal. I would prefer to make a deal.”

The next day, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a speech, made no mention of a letter from Trump but declared that the Islamic Republic would not negotiate with "bullying" powers. Iranian Media and observers interpreted this as an indirect response to Trump's demand for talks.

Trump’s explicit threat—both in his public statements and the reported letter—that the United States might consider military action if Tehran refuses genuine negotiations has put Khamenei under pressure to deliver a clear response. Whether the denial of receiving a letter is intended to delay such a response remains uncertain.

It is also possible that Trump sent a message rather than a formal letter, using intermediaries such as Russia or Qatar. This could allow Tehran to deny having received a letter and avoid the pressure to publicly respond.

Abbas Golroo, a member of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, told Borna News Agency in Tehran on Monday that he had no precise information on Trump’s letter and suggested that what was being referred to as a letter was likely a message.

It is entirely possible that Trump sent a message in some form and that Iran may have already responded through indirect channels or intends to do so, while maintaining the pretense that no letter was involved.

In any case, the foreign ministry spokesperson condemned Trump's threats of keeping a military option on the table. “Various Iranian officials have spoken on this matter. The threat of using force is a criminal act under international law,” Baghaei said.

Iran, under intense economic pressure and a weakened regional position, also sees Trump’s maximum sanctions policy as a coercive tactic. Last month, when Trump reaffirmed his maximum pressure strategy, Tehran similarly rejected negotiations, citing its refusal to engage in talks under duress.

Tehran has long sought sanctions relief as a condition for engaging in talks. During the Biden administration, when indirect negotiations lasted more than a year, Washington informally eased enforcement, leading to a significant surge in Iran’s oil exports and nearly $100 billion in additional revenue.

Sanctions are having an impact on the trade link by increasing costs and logistical hurdles, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese refinery executives and shipping analysts.

Private Chinese refineries, which are the primary buyers of Iranian crude, have faced supply disruptions in recent weeks due to seller defaults, Bloomberg reported, citing industry sources.

While no specific reason was given, refinery executives attributed the issues to rising expenses and logistical challenges caused by US sanctions.

Washington has blacklisted more than two-thirds of the 150 vessels that transported Iranian crude last year.

The sanctions announced on February 24 followed similar measures by the US Treasury in late 2024, targeting ultra-large crude carriers in Iran's shadow fleet.

More than half of the tankers sanctioned by the United States have ceased operations outside Chinese or Iranian terminals, an investigation by Iran International revealed last month.

The increased restrictions have led to record-high freight costs, with the chartering rate for a non-sanctioned supertanker moving Iranian oil from Malaysia to China reaching up to $6 million—an increase of 50% from last year, Bloomberg reported, citing traders.

Some Chinese port authorities are also taking precautions. Shandong Port Group, which operates in a key refining hub, recently advised against handling blacklisted tankers, Bloomberg's report said.

Despite these obstacles, flows surged to a four-month high last month, partly due to a backlog of delayed cargoes, Bloomberg said.

However, an increasing number of ship-to-ship oil transfers are being conducted in "dark" mode, where vessels switch off their transponders to avoid detection, Bloomberg reported, citing satellite images and analysts.

In the waters off Malaysia, a key hub for Iranian crude shipments, up to seven such transfers were observed in a single day last month. Analysts noted that most of these operations were entirely "dark," indicating that shippers are taking greater precautions as Washington signals increased enforcement efforts.

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers under an international accord designed to curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Anoop Singh, the global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told Bloomberg that financial institutions working with private Chinese refiners importing Iranian oil may come under fresh scrutiny. He added that Washington could choose to pressure countries such as India and the United Arab Emirates, where key shipowners and dark fleet operators are based.

He said that so far, the US has focused its sanctions on ships and owners, but the market has managed to create workarounds. “However, there are more critical parts of the network to target, from banks to governments to flag states and insurers — and regulatory avenues to explore,” Singh told Bloomberg.

Farhad Alaaeldin said that the expiration of the waiver “presents temporary operational challenges,” adding that “Iraq was committed to its strategic goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency".

The Trump administration revoked Iraq’s sanctions waiver to pay Iran for electricity on Saturday as part of President Donald Trump's so-called campaign of maximum pressure against Tehran.

"The government is actively working on alternatives to sustain electricity supply and mitigate any potential disruptions," Alaaeldin said.

"Strengthening energy security remains a national priority, and efforts to enhance domestic production, improve grid efficiency and invest in new technologies will continue at full pace," he added.

A State Department spokesperson said that the decision "ensures we do not allow Iran any degree of economic or financial relief,” adding that Trump's campaign on Iran aims "to end its nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program and stop it from supporting terrorist groups."

The spokesperson said: "We urge the Iraqi government to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible ... Iran is an unreliable energy supplier."

The spokesperson played down the impact of Iranian electricity imports on Iraq's power grid, saying, "In 2023, electricity imports from Iran were only 4% of electricity consumption in Iraq."

Washington seeks to isolate Iran economically and cut its oil revenues to hinder nuclear development—claims Tehran denies, insisting its program is peaceful.

"President Trump has been clear that the Iranian Regime must cease its ambitions for a nuclear weapon or face Maximum Pressure," said National Security spokesperson James Hewitt. "We hope the regime will put the interests of its people and the region ahead of its destabilizing policies."

The US has long urged Iraq to reduce reliance on Iranian energy. The waiver’s removal is also seen as part of Washington’s push for Baghdad to resume Kurdish oil exports via Turkey to help stabilize global prices.

"Iraq’s energy transition provides opportunities for US companies, which are world-leading experts in increasing the productivity of power plants, improving electricity grids, and developing electricity interconnections with reliable partners," the State Department spokesperson noted.