Iran warns West: abandon pressure or face more uranium enrichment

The milestone highlights the deepening economic strain in Iran, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions and challenging domestic policy decisions.

A recent resolution from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors criticized Iran’s lack of cooperation on nuclear matters, prompting Tehran to threaten an escalation in uranium enrichment. Calls for producing nuclear weapons by some Iranian officials, combined with fears of more and stricter international sanctions, have further shaken confidence in the Iranian economy.

The rial’s value has plummeted over 20-fold since the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers. Compared to its value at the time of the 1979 revolution, the currency has depreciated to just 1/10,000 of its original worth.

Last year in November, the dollar was trading at approximately 500,000 rials. By contrast, the sharp rise in recent months has been fueled by escalating tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel.

Since the Iranian calendar year began in March, military confrontations—such as missile and drone attacks launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Israeli targets also contributed to the rial's fall.

October marked the beginning of another downward trend. The dollar climbed to 690,000 rials on October 26 following an Israeli airstrike on military targets in Iran.

This upward momentum was reinforced by geopolitical developments, such as Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and news of the IAEA resolution. On November 23, the dollar reached the 700,000 rials threshold again, signaling potential inflationary pressures in the months ahead.

The IAEA resolution on Thursday, supported by the United States, Britain, France, and Germany, called on Tehran to improve cooperation and clarify its nuclear activities. In response, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization announced plans to increase uranium enrichment.

The potential activation of the snapback mechanism after the resolution could reintroduce sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, likely deepening Iran’s economic woes. Such measures would mirror the international pressure during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, when the country faced severe economic and diplomatic isolation.

Iran's economy is also facing other challenges, such as shortages of natural gas and electricity, reducing industrial production, exports and earnings in foreign currency.

This neglect, despite being mandated in the Islamic Republic’s own regulations, has led to threats, violence, and deteriorating conditions for political detainees.

Human rights organizations have repeatedly warned that mixing political prisoners with those accused of violent offenses endangers their safety. Yet, officials from the judiciary and Prison Organization remain indifferent to these violations.

One notable case is Mehdi Meskinnavaz, a political prisoner serving a 13-year sentence in Bandar Anzali prison, north of Iran. After returning to incarceration on September 3 following a temporary suspension of his sentence, Meskinnavaz has faced repeated threats and physical abuse from an inmate accused of murder. His suffering highlights the dangers of housing political detainees with violent offenders.

Maryam Akbari Monfared, among Iran’s longest-serving female political prisoners, was transferred from Semnan prison to Gharchak women’s prison on October 22. Currently held in section six of Gharchak alongside approximately 120 other inmates, she faces dire conditions.

Gharchak Prison is a prison for women located in in Gharchak County, previously part of Varamin County, Tehran Province, (30 km SSE of the capital).

Jila Baniyaghoob, a journalist and activist, wrote on the Focus on Iranian Women website about the inhumane circumstances in Gharchak. She reported that section six has only one bathroom and one toilet for all inmates, forcing prisoners into long waits and frequent conflicts over access.

Baniyaghoob also noted that at least 20 inmates in the section are on death row, primarily for murder. These prisoners require both healthcare and psychological support, but such services are lacking in the overcrowded and unsanitary environment.

The systematic failure to separate prisoners is not limited to individual cases. The death of Alireza Shir Mohammad Ali in June 2019 is a reminder of the consequences. Shir Mohammad Ali, detained after the 2018 protests, was killed by two violent inmates in Tehran’s Grand Prison, where he was held without proper separation.

In another example, political prisoner Saeed Gharibi at Adelabad prison in Shiraz attempted self-immolation on November 16 to protest his conditions and the lack of adherence to the separation principle.

According to the Islamic Republic’s prison regulations, security detainees, including political prisoners, should be held in special facilities. These rules explicitly require the segregation of inmates by the nature of their crimes to prevent ideological, political, or personal conflicts. However, these regulations remain largely unenforced.

"Under current circumstances, Iran should first move toward increasing uranium enrichment, potentially raising the enrichment level to 70% or 80%. In the second phase, Iran should pursue nuclear weapon production,” Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Iran’s Parliament told Didban news website in Tehran.

The Islamic Republic is stockpiling 60-percent enriched uranium, which can be quickly refined to 90%, the level required for nuclear weapons production. While estimates suggest Iran could achieve this enrichment threshold within weeks, building an operational bomb involves additional processes, expertise, and technology. The extent of Iran's progress in developing a nuclear warhead remains unclear.

Ardestani argued that Tehran has little to lose by pursuing nuclear weapons, since it is already under US sanctions. “Currently, we are already deeply entrenched in the boiling pot of sanctions, and the West cannot impose additional sanctions on us beyond recycling existing measures, which primarily have psychological impacts but bring no real change."

While formal US sanctions target Iran’s oil exports and international banking, the incoming Trump administration could significantly ramp up enforcement—a step the outgoing Biden administration avoided in hopes of negotiating over Iran's nuclear program.

Currently, Iran ships over one million barrels of crude oil to small Chinese refineries, bypassing US-imposed third-party sanctions. Despite steep discounts, these exports provide Tehran with critical funds to address its pressing needs. If the Trump administration succeeds in curbing these shipments, Iran’s already fragile economy could face severe consequences.

The Iranian lawmaker emphasized the Islamic Republic’s need for establishing deterrence against Israeli or other military attacks and dismissed the risk of an effective Western response. "If we produce a nuclear bomb, the resulting tension will last no more than six months. Western countries will object to why we developed nuclear weapons, and we can respond by pointing out that they have sanctioned us enough already and have no new sanctions left to impose.”

Ardestani downplayed the likelihood of a Western military response if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, claiming that the country already possesses sufficient deterrence to prevent such an attack. “Claims about Western military threats against Iran seem unlikely to materialize. Iran already enjoys a high level of military deterrence, making it improbable for Western countries to wage war against us."

However, this stance appears to contradict his own assertion that Tehran requires nuclear weapons to strengthen its deterrence against potential military strikes.

Earlier, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, suggested that the United States should compensate Iran for damages as a condition for Tehran to abandon nuclear weapons development.

Since March 2024, ambiguous statements from Islamic Republic officials regarding moving toward nuclear weapons development have increased. In May, Kamal Kharrazi, Khamenei's international affairs advisor and head of his Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, warned about the Islamic Republic's potential shift toward building nuclear weapons.

In October, 39 members of Iran’s parliament sent a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, calling for a change in the Islamic Republic’s defense doctrine to include nuclear weapons development.

In contrast to these statements, officials from Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, including Pezeshkian himself, have positioned themselves as proponents of diplomacy, advocating for de-escalation and citing the Supreme Leader’s fatwa against nuclear weapons as justification for their stance.

Larijani's new demand for compensation and Ardestani’s threat to build nuclear weapons come as Tehran's regional influence faces significant setbacks, with Hamas’s military infrastructure largely destroyed, Hezbollah under relentless Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and key militant leaders, including Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, killed.

Ali Larijani wrote that if the Trump administration wants Iran to refrain from making a bomb, "They must accept Iran's conditions and grant necessary concessions, including #compensating_Iran for damages and similar measures, to reach a new agreement, rather than issuing unilateral demands."

The earlier suggestion, also conveyed by Ali Larijani in an interview with Khamenei’s official website on Thursday, suggested Iran pledging not to produce weapons but retaining uranium enrichment capabilities.

Larijani directed both messages squarely at the incoming administration of President-elect Trump, who withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear agreement in 2018.

“You now have only two options: either return to the JCPOA that was already agreed upon … or, if you do not accept it as I have heard that the new US administration has said, then fine. It is not divine revelation. Come and discuss a new deal,” he had said on Thursday.

“You say, ‘We accept a nuclear Iran as long as it does not move toward a bomb!’ Fine. We have enrichment at this level. So, come to an agreement, bearing in mind that Iran has certain conditions for this based on past experiences." he added. "We will not move toward a bomb, and you must accept our conditions. Make a new agreement.”

Larijani said Iran had increased its enrichment to over 60%, a key concern of Western powers but well short of weapons-grade levels. He was speaking before a censure resolution against Iran was passed by the UN nuclear watchdog.

Larijani's new demand for compensation comes as Tehran's regional influence faces significant setbacks, with Hamas’s military infrastructure largely destroyed, Hezbollah under relentless Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and key militant leaders, including Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, killed.

Larijani returns

Khamenei’s decision to entrust Larijani to speak publicly on key diplomatic issues may signal a move to assign the relative moderate a more prominent role in Iran's foreign affairs apparatus.

During two high-profile visits last week to Syria and Lebanon amid Israeli air strikes, Larijani delivered personal messages from Ali Khamenei to key regional players, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and top Lebanese officials.

A former head of state broadcaster IRIB for a decade up to 2004, Larijani led Iran's Supreme National Security Council until 2008 and then served as speaker of parliament before a relative ebb in his public stature.

Now his bold offer to the Trump administration in an interview with the Supreme Leader's website may suggest a high-level new role for him in the nuclear dossier.

Following Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Iran extended an official invitation to Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to visit Tehran in a possible renewed bid at diplomacy.

Last Friday, Grossi inspected two of Iran's key nuclear facilities as Tehran signaled its willingness to resume negotiations over its disputed nuclear program in a bid to alleviate sanctions which have dogged the Iranian economy.

With pressure mounting on Tehran following the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors' resolution demanding improved cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the Islamic Republic pledged to activate advanced centrifuges in retaliation.

The resolution, combined with likely revival of the so-called maximum pressure campaign of sanctions on Iran from Trump's first term may set US-led Western countries on a collision course with Tehran over the nuclear dossier.

Speaking on the Eye for Iran podcast, David Albright said Iran or Israel may accidentally or deliberately engage in such an armed showdown. "Maybe Iran would target Tel Aviv. We know it can hit Tel Aviv and then Israel responds. I think it is a very dangerous time."

If both Iran and Israel feel threatened, then Iran's dash for a bomb and the chance of military confrontation seems more likely than ever, said Albright.

The former UN atomic inspector said Iran’s nuclear program is shrouded in secrecy and that the current measures in place do little to detect suspicious activity.

It would take a week or less for Iran to make enough weapon-grade uranium for a bomb, Albright said. It would take six months to make a weaponized nuclear warhead.

“I feel very, very worried about what’s going to take place in the future,” said Albright.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has grappled with Iran’s lack of cooperation and secrecy for more than two decades. In the past they have found uranium at locations that had not been declared, have been denied access to nuclear sites and faced official resistance to accrediting inspectors.

But the issue of secrecy and the findings of deep underground nuclear facilities that were previously undeclared like Fordow is much more complex and potentially dangerous, Albright told Iran International.

Iranian nuclear decision-makers are not only keeping secrets from the UN’s nuclear watchdog but also hiding it from their own government officials, said Albright.

“The technical people are preparing to build a bomb and if they're going to build a bomb at SPND they want to make sure that it can be done secretly," Albright said, referring to the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Farsi based acronym, SPND, which plays a key role in Iran's nuclear program. 

"There's no oversight. They can exclude people in the parliament, in other parts of the Ministry of Defense from knowing what they're doing.”

Iran’s parliament recently expanded the funding and military pursuit of SPND, exempting it from oversight. The complex was previously under the guidance of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear program before Israel allegedly assassinated him in Tehran with an AI-powered machine gun.

The SPND initiates projects to work on parts of the bomb, without any government approval, said Albright, who is the founder of the non-governmental Institute for Science and Internatinal Security (ISIS).

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. However, that’s not how Albright, Israel and the Western powers view it.

Out of 35 member countries on the IAEA's Board of Governors, 19 voted in favor of a censure resolution on Iran on Thursday, urging greater cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

Britain, France, and Germany – dubbed the E3 – said during the IAEA meeting in Vienna that the findings of Director General Rafael Grossi after his recent visit to Iran, were deeply concerning.

Grossi announced that the Islamic Republic had expanded its uranium stockpiles by 60 percent purity, which is just a short technical step away from nuclear weapons.

Thousands of centrifuges

In response to the IAEA censure, Iran said Friday that it is pursuing new advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Iran would retaliate by activating thousands of centrifuges, not just hundreds.

Much like a previous censure in June of this year, the latest resolution repeats its demand that Iran provide explanations for undeclared uranium traces and mandates that IAEA analysts be allowed to take samples.

Albright said Biden’s approach to Iran was a failure. He said the E3 had to trick the US into a censure resolution in June because they were frustrated with the pace of the US.

The former UN inspector who has been warning about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and lack of cooperation for more than 20 years, said he has learned over these years that pressure works.

Albright is a physicist and one of the world's leading nuclear experts. He was one of very few experts in the field who warned to the George W. Bush administration that the intelligence he possessed on invading Iraq on the pretense of weapons of mass destruction was unreliable.

Sanctions will work

In his interview with Iran International, Albright said crippling Iran's economy, like targeting key revenue such as oil sales, will force Tehran to cooperate.

"People always say, sanctions don't have an impact. But if they don't have an impact, why is it every time a deal is brought up as a possibility, the first thing the regime says is you've got to the lift the sanctions," said Albright.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House, the open and direct strikes between Iran and Israel and the weakening of Iran’s deterrence power via depleted armed allies Hamas and Hezbollah put Iran in a vulnerable position.

With geopolitics in the area remaining volatile and the unpredictable and uncanny approach of president-elect Donald Trump to world politics, Albright said the state of play could rapidly change.

"Trump, you don't know what he's going to do. He sent out a signal recently that maybe he wants to make a deal," he said, apparently referring to an alleged meeting between Trump's close ally Elon Musk and Iran's UN envoy.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with David Albright on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Castbox or Amazon.