What would Iran do: A race to the bomb or a deal with Trump?

Iran's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday night summoned the British chargé d’affaires to protest the latest UK sanctions on Iran’s shipping and aviation industries over Tehran’s alleged missile transfers to Russia.

The British envoy was told that Iran's defense cooperation with Russia is legitimate and legal and is not against any third party, according to Iran’s state TV.

The UK envoy was summoned hours after the ambassador of Hungary, the rotating president of the EU, was summoned to receive Iran’s strong protest over similar sanctions imposed by the EU against the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry slammed the British and EU sanctions as illegal interference in Iran’s domestic affairs, saying it is not acceptable in any way.

The sanctions, introduced on Monday, targeted several Iranian entities and individuals including the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) as well as Iran’s flagship carrier Iran Air.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday the EU and the UK have accused Iran of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia and imposed sanctions on Iran’s airlines and shipping without presenting any evidence.

“At the same time, based on documents submitted to court, British media today reveals that the UK, fully aware that its arms and F-35 components are used by Israel in grave violations of international humanitarian law, continues to export these weapons. The UK's justification? Maintaining ties with the US and NATO. This contradictory behavior exposes their double standards and abdication of responsibility toward human rights,” Araghchi tweeted.

Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman had called the EU and British sanctions “unjustified”, saying they were imposed based on false claims of missile transfers to Russia.

"Iran considers the imposition of new sanctions by the European Union and the United Kingdom against a number of Iranian individuals and legal entities on the false claim of sending ballistic missiles to Russia as an unjustified act that contradicts the norms of international law," Esmail Baghaei said.

Baghaei accused the European parties of violating international law, including the freedom of navigation and maritime trade, via sanctions.

In September, the United States, citing intelligence shared with its allies, reported that Russia had received ballistic missiles from Iran for use in its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In response, Washington imposed sanctions on the vessels and companies involved in facilitating the weapons transfers.

The new sanctions, imposed on the 1,000th day of the Ukraine war, are part of a wider strategy to economically and diplomatically isolate Iran.

When did it start?

The first reports of Iran supplying drones to Russia emerged in July 2022. On July 11, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan revealed intelligence saying Iran was preparing to send several hundred drones to Russia, including those with combat capabilities.

“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” he told reporters.

By mid-October 2022, Ukrainian forces began identifying Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in Russian attacks, confirming their deployment in the conflict.

Sullivan’s statement marked a pivotal moment, as it was among the earliest public indications of this emerging military collaboration. The level of specificity in the intelligence, including remarks that Iran planned to send hundreds of drones, surprised many.

How many drones were supplied?

According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Iran has supplied Russia with up to 3,000 drones - primarily the Shahed-136 model - though the exact number remains uncertain.

“Estimates vary on how many Iranian drones Russia has acquired, ranging from 600 to more than 3,000. While this number might seem large, these munitions are often used in waves, so a supply of a few thousand can be depleted in a matter of days or weeks,” the CFR wrote in October 2022.

Russia’s drone manufacturing facility

In June 2023, US intelligence alleged Iran was aiding Russia in building a drone manufacturing facility in Yelabuga, within the Alabuga Special Economic Zone on the steppes of the Tatarstan region.

The plant focuses on producing Shahed-136 drones domestically, which Russia rebranded as the Geran-2. The collaboration aims to manufacture approximately 6,000 drones by mid-2025, ensuring a consistent supply for Russia's military needs.

Iran has provided the technical expertise, blueprints, and potentially key components for the Yelabuga plant.

This facility reflected a strategic shift, allowing Russia to bypass sanctions and reduce its dependency on direct imports from Iran.

The project, however, has faced challenges, including labor shortages and logistical hurdles, prompting Moscow to scramble for workers including from among African students in the country according to the Associated Press.

How does Russia use Iranian drones?

Russian forces utilize drones like the Shahed-136 for kamikaze strikes. It means that the drones crash into fixed targets, delivering explosive payloads to damage energy grids, command centers, and supply depots.

The drone swarms are also deployed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, forcing them to expend costly missiles on relatively inexpensive UAVs.

Their frequent use, particularly in nighttime attacks, creates fear among civilians and military personnel.

Iranian drones rely on GPS-guided navigation rather than first-person view (FPV) systems. This makes them cost-effective weapons but limits their adaptability to dynamic combat scenarios. Their payload capacity of approximately 40-50 kilograms and range of up to 2,500 kilometers enable strikes deep into Ukrainian territory.

Russia strategically uses drones to deplete resources, meaning drone swarms force Ukraine to expend high-value air defense missiles. Once defenses are exhausted, more advanced missile systems can reach their targets with fewer losses.

The drones also help map Ukrainian air defenses, revealing gaps for exploitation.

These tactics underscore the drones' dual role as both offensive weapons and tools for battlefield intelligence.

Efficiency and cost

Iranian drones like the Shahed-136 are considered cost-effective. Production costs range from $20,000 to $50,000 per unit, significantly cheaper than most precision-guided missiles. However, foreign buyers such as Russia pay far more—up to $290,000 per drone in smaller shipments. This pricing discrepancy reflects the added value of technology transfer and production rights.

The Shahed-136 relies on GPS for navigation, making it vulnerable to jamming. Pre-programmed flight paths limit their adaptability to dynamic combat scenarios and Ukrainian forces have increasingly intercepted these drones using advanced air defense systems, electronic jamming, and counter-drone measures.

While the exact terms of compensation remain unclear, reports suggest that Russia has made payments in cash, gold, and possibly other forms of material exchange.

In November 2022, Sky News reported that Moscow transferred €140 million in cash and captured Western weapons to Iran.

International repercussions

Iran's drone exports to Russia have drawn widespread condemnation and punitive measures, mostly from the United States and its European allies.

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned several entities involved in the production and export of Iranian drones, including Shahed Aviation Industries. Additional restrictions target logistics networks facilitating the transport of drones to Russia.

The EU has also imposed similar sanctions, focusing on Iran's drone manufacturers and individuals linked to their deployment in Ukraine. Travel bans and asset freezes have been applied to Iranian officials and companies overseeing these operations.

The controversy has led Ukraine to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Tehran of complicity in Russian war crimes, while Western nations have sought to hold Iran accountable for violating arms embargoes under United Nations resolutions.

By supplying advanced UAVs and aiding domestic production, Tehran has bolstered Moscow’s capabilities in its war in Ukraine. However, the partnership has also drawn intense scrutiny, resulting in stepped-up international sanctions and heightened tensions between Iran and Western nations.

The confidential reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say Tehran has made preparations to cap the stockpile at around 185 kg (407 lbs). Iran also agreed to consider accepting the appointment of four additional experienced IAEA inspectors.

However, diplomats told Reuters that Western powers are pushing for the censure resolution at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting despite Iran's reported offer. The Wall Street Journal also quoted sources as saying that France, Britain and Germany (known as the E3) will move forward with the resolution in the Wednesday meeting.

Previous voting patterns suggest that proposals backed by the key Western countries easily pass. A successful resolution could be a catalyst for France, Britain and Germany to trigger a so-called "snapback mechanism" to restore UN sanctions imposed on Iran before a 2015 multilateral nuclear deal.

US to support efforts to hold Iran accountable

The United States is going to remain tightly coordinated with its European partners in advance of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting and strongly supports efforts to hold Iran accountable, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told Iran International, urging Tehran to cooperate with the IAEA.

The decision comes despite Iran's pledge to retaliate if such a resolution is adopted.

"If the IAEA Board of Governors passes a censure resolution against Iran, the Islamic Republic will undoubtedly take reciprocal action and implement new measures in its nuclear program, which they will certainly not like," Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the state TV on Saturday.

Unconfirmed media reports in Tehran say Iranian authorities have threatened to "activate a significant number of advanced centrifuges and may inject gas into these centrifuges" if the resolution is passed.

This is not the first time Iran has sought to dissuade the IAEA Board of Governors from adopting censure resolutions. In March 2023, Iran told the IAEA it was committed to resolving issues around sites where inspectors have concerns about possible undeclared nuclear activity and to allow the IAEA to “implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities.”

However, Tehran did not cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdog and even withdrew the accreditation of several inspectors assigned to conduct verification activities in Iran under the Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement in September 2023.

France, Britain, and Germany repeatedly attempted to rally support for a censure resolution at the Board of Governors, according to the Wall Street Journal, but their efforts were blocked by the Biden administration. In June 2024, the UN nuclear watchdog’s 35-member board of governors censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the agency.

Sharp rise in Iran's stockpile of nuclear fuel

The IAEA reports to member states cited by Reuters show that Tehran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% had grown by 17.6 kg since the previous report to 182.3 kg as of Oct. 26, which is enough for four nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

While Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, the Islamic Republic's authorities have in multiple instances suggested that the country may change its nuclear doctrine if deemed necessary.

The IAEA Board of Governors' meeting on Wednesday will be the last quarterly Board meeting before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

Trump who withdrew the US from a nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, has vowed to restore his so-called maximum pressure against Iran and stop the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

"The defeat of the United States in the contemporary era in the West Asia region was its first major strategic defeat. This defeat was the greatest defeat the United States has faced since its founding," General Gholamreza Soleimani told Tehran media on Tuesday.

Soleimani also said Israel is economically crippled amid the war in Gaza against Iran-backed Hamas, while Iran's largest militia in Lebanon, Hezbollah, continues daily exchanges with Israel. Attacks have also been launched from Iran's militias in Yemen, Syria and Iraq since Hamas's October 7 attacks on Israel last year.

“The Zionist regime has been defeated militarily,” Soleimani said, adding that it is a continuation of the revolution of 1979, which saw the Islamic Republic form and overthrow the monarchy.

Soleimani's remarks come amid widespread blackouts in Iran due to fuel shortages and the severe devaluation of its currency, now worth just 1/10,000th of its value before the Islamic Republic's establishment in 1979. Meanwhile, Iran's regional proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have been weakened by recent Israeli attacks.

“The great Iranian nation, during the Islamic Revolution under wise leadership, confronted the deviant Pahlavi regime, stood against the United States, and defeated it,” Soleimani said.

As the propaganda war continues, he called for a global campaign to convince public opinion that Israel’s downfall is imminent.

“The world’s public opinion must be convinced that this regime has collapsed. We must continuously create and disseminate content in the digital space, spreading the message that the Zionist regime has been defeated,” he added.

Soleimani’s remarks come amid ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel in the region. Iran frequently cites the Islamic Revolution of 1979 as a moment of resistance to foreign domination, framing its policies as part of a broader struggle against US military presence in the region and its global influence.

Soleimani highlighted the role of the United States in what he described as the survival of Israel, which he called the “filthy body of the Zionist regime.”

His comments align with Iran’s broader strategy of leveraging anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiments to strengthen its regional alliances and bolster its narrative of resistance.

While Soleimani painted a picture of an Israel on the verge of collapse this week, in both of Iran's recent aerial bombardments of Israel, Israeli forces, along with international allies, intercepted most of the projectiles launched, challenging claims of a dismantled air defense network.

Meanwhile, in Israel's recent retaliatory attack to the October bombardment, masses of Iranian air defenses were destroyed.

Ahmad Ajam, a member of the Iranian parliament who secured his seat with a modest share of votes in his constituency, is among those eager for dialogue. He has even proposed including a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon as a topic for talks, disregarding the risks faced by higher-ranking politicians who have suggested negotiations with US officials without the prior approval of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi faced serious backlash after rumors emerged that Iran's chief diplomat in New York, Saeed Iravani, had engaged in secret talks with Trump advisor Elon Musk and even promoted investment in Iran. The hardliner daily *Kayhan*, closely aligned with Khamenei's office, sharply criticized Araghchi and went as far as accusing him of treason.

The news of the meeting, shared with The New York Times by two unnamed Iranian officials, was likely an attempt to gauge reactions from Khamenei and the IRGC, the key power brokers in Iran's government, to see if they would support or oppose the proposal. Critics also accused Araghchi of being complicit with former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal, which hardliners claimed primarily benefited the West.

On Sunday, 207 of Iran's 290 lawmakers approved the urgency of a bill calling for the dismissal of officials like Javad Zarif, whose children allegedly hold US citizenship. Iranian media report that the bill is specifically aimed at Zarif within the government.

Amid this, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, a leader of the 1979 US embassy takeover in Tehran, in which over 50 US diplomats were held hostage, told a Tehran news outlet that "with or without negotiations with Trump, time is against Iran."

Asgharzadeh emphasized that "only innovative talks on equal footing with the United States can shift the situation in Iran's favor," while noting that "even confidence-building with China and Russia is no longer sufficient to help Iran." Now regarded as a Reformist figure, he reiterated that "dismantling the security net surrounding Iran could potentially end its dangerous isolation and pave the way for the country’s development."

He further warned that "provocative slogans and ambitious claims will surely rally the world's public opinion against us." A good example of such provocations and ambitions was Kayhan’s article that said, "If rumors about the meeting between Musk and Iravani were true, it would have been a dangerous and damaging development that would have undermined Iran's dignity and authority."

Kayhan previously accused Reformists and centrists in Iran of attempting to portray Trump as having changed since 2016, suggesting that engaging in talks with him could be Iran's path out of isolation. The publication claimed that US administrations are convinced they can extract concessions from Iran by encouraging Iranians to rise against their government, as seen in the numerous protests since 2018.

In his interview, Asgharzadeh warned that time is running out and that persisting with outdated policies will not benefit Tehran. He emphasized that Iran's primary challenge lies with the United States, a conflict he believes poses a threat to the Islamic Republic's very existence. Asgharzadeh noted that in its dispute with the US, Iran adopts a confrontational stance toward a third country, Israel, while simultaneously advocating for the rights of a fourth, the Palestinians.

The reformist figure argued that while Iran claimed President Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in the July election signaled a shift toward change and readiness for rapprochement with the West, the decision to invite Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to his inauguration undermined that message.

He observed that Trump aims to establish a new order in the Middle East and cautioned that, under the current circumstances, any action provoking a US military strike on Iran could devastate the country's economy and infrastructure, potentially triggering a domestic revolt. Instead, he advocated for a strategy of creative diplomacy to minimize the risk of military aggression against Tehran.