Militant Attack On Government Forces Shakes Iran

Conflicting reports from sources on the two sides make it almost impossible to draw an accurate picture of what happened late on Wednesday local time, and the apparent continuation of clashes on Thursday. But It is clear that Iranian forces were caught off-guard and the ensuing exchange of fire lasted for several hours, likely in more than one location.

Jaish al-Adl, the militant group taking responsibility for the attacks, has a long history of targeting Iranian armed forces, especially the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), in areas bordering Pakistan. It has been on the US foreign terrorist organization list since 2010, and has on occasion killed civilians in bombings. 

Thursday morning, Iranian official sources claimed that as many as 16 militants were killed. News websites affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard announced that government casualties has increased to 11 dead, including 7 IRGC personnel. Also, there were reports that clashes still continued in some locations at daybreak.

This recent attack holds more significance than previous ones for two main reasons: firstly, it occurred shortly after Israel's airstrike in Syria, which killed seven IRGC members, including two senior commanders; and secondly, Jaish al-Adl's previous major attack in January led to a political crisis between Iran and Pakistan. This crisis ensued after Iran targeted what it claimed were militant hideouts inside Pakistan, prompting Pakistan to retaliate by hitting what it alleged were separatist Baluch positions within Iran.

It’s unclear if the regime in Tehran would react in the same manner to the attacks Thursday. Only hours before the Jaish al-Adl ambush, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Israel with a ‘slap’ for its killing of IRGC commanders in Syria. A similar threat, whether or not it’s followed through, could further complicate the questions facing Khamenei and his soldiers.

The last thing the Islamic Republic needs at the moment is a spat with Pakistan –or worst case scenario, a new front in its ongoing proxy wars. But turning a blind eye to this attack may not be an option either, especially since Jaish al-Adl has killed Iranian military personnel and will almost certainly do so again whenever it can. Moreover, the attack came on the eve of the annual Quds Day, much touted by Tehran. This year, officials were emphasizing the importance of the occasion to support Palestinians across the world.

On Thursday, the Sunni militants claimed they had attacked and exchanged heavy fire with Iranian forces at six IRGC and police locations. They even posted a video on the group’s Telegram channel that they said showed their fighters inside an IRGC base capturing weapons and preparing to fight.

Sources in Iran –state and IRGC affiliated– denied this, claiming to have neutralized the "attempt by terrorists”, and downplaying the significance of the attack. They first announced 5 casualties on each side, but later changed it to 3 Iranians and 12 militants.

The ‘chain operations’ targeted police and IRGC posts in the southeast cities of Chabahar and Rask, according to Jaish al-Adl. Iran's Deputy Minister of Interior Majid Mirahmadi admitted that the militants had set up ambushes along nearby roads to prevent Iranian forces from chasing them.

Shortly after, he was quoted by IRGC-affiliated sources, claiming that the militants had failed to breach the IRGC base and that the hostage in a residential building had been freed. "The terrorists experienced a total defeat," he said, while some local sources claimed some fighting was still going on.

The government in Iran considers Jaish al-Adl a terrorist organization. Officials often allege that the group has ties with US, Saudi, and Israeli intelligence agencies, and is tasked by them to whip up instability and insecurity in southeast Iran.