Iran's Negotiating Power Was Backed By Missiles, Says Ex-Official

But gradually the optimism dissipated as no follow-up news was heard and the foreign ministry spokesman on Saturday told a local news website that the talks have stopped.

Moderate conservative Khabar Online in Tehran was quick to pick up the news about "Progress in the Iran-US negotiations." The website's editors were upbeat that finally, US officials have spoken positively about the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is another name for the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

Khabar Online observed that "Although some analysts maintain that pressures by Israel and disputes with the Congress as well as some domestic political issues give reasons to the Biden Administration to be reluctant about resuming the nuclear talks, yet the bigger picture indicates a more positive outlook compared to past weeks and months."

Indirect nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington reached a deadlock in September 2022, when at the same time antigovernment protests broke out in Iran. The US in early October signaled that it is not focused on the negotiations any more and is determined to support the rights of protesters.

The US Special Representative for Iran, Robert Malley thanked Oman for securing the release of US hostage Baqer Namazi earlier, during a meeting with Muscat officials.

A prisoner deal would reportedly involve the release of Iran’s frozen funds in South Korea and rumors said that Qatar will probably oversee the way Iran will spend the released assets to make sure that it will do nothing with the money other than purchasing food and medicine.

Apart from statements by President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami also told the press that Iran is prepared to continue the nuclear negotiations based on previous agreements.

Regardless of any real or imagined progress, Iran's former ambassador to London, Mohsen Baharvand warned in a commentary he wrote for Etemad Newspaper that the possible death of the JCPOA will have unforeseeable repercussions. Baharvand said: "After the death of the JCPOA is announced any of the two parties might resort to actions that would endanger regional and international peace.”

The former diplomat said one of the complications was after saying that finalizing a nuclear agreement is not part of their priorities, the United States and Europe realized that without the JCPOA, Iran may terminate its voluntary implementation of the "additional protocol," which allows inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

Meanwhile, reformist activist Fayzollah Arabsorkhi said that policymaking in Iran about the nuclear talks is based on expectations that are not achievable. Arabsorkhi added that Iranian hardliners who are currently in charge are in a way aligned with Israel's policy about the Iranian nuclear program. He said generally, the JCPOA serves Iran's interests but delaying the negotiations for such a long time is not in Tehran's interest.

Arabsorkhi added that the Iranian negotiators should realize that talks cannot just serve Iran's interests. To be successful, negotiations should serve the interests of both sides.

In yet another development, the former chief of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign relations committee Heshmatollah Falahatp[isheh said that the reason for the failure of the talks to revive the JCPOA so far is that the Rouhani administration was too cautious and the Raisi administration too radical. He added that both governments missed the chance of reaching an agreement.

Falahatpisheh said, that when in December 2020 the hardliner parliament voted on stringent conditions for a deal, former President Hassan Rouhani gave in and did not try harder for a quick agreement.

He also claimed that negotiations for a prisoner exchange are in limbo because “the American government did not act according to its promises.”

Kanaani visited the offices of the hardliner Mehr news website Saturday and spoke with the editorial staff about issues related to nuclear talks and American’s held in Iran.

“The West led by America has adopted a policy of attrition in negotiations, whereby they use every means of pressure, including instigating protests and [continuing] sanctions,” Kanaani said.

He insisted that Washington is indirectly communicating with Tehran, but parallel to talks it uses every means of pressure possible to bring Iran’s tolerance to the breaking point. Among these pressures, Kanaani also mentioned the Iranian opposition that he claimed has “no stature among the Iranian people.”

Tehran’s regime has been badly rattled by more than five months of popular anti-regime protests, with prominent activists in the diaspora uniting and calling for regime change in Iran. These activists have announced that their goal is putting pressure on Western government to support the protests, including listing the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization in Europe.

NBC News reported February 15 that indirect negotiations were taking place for a possible prisoner exchange between the United States and the Islamic Republic. The report said that the two sides were exploring ways that could include a prisoner exchange and the release of $7 billion of frozen Iranian funds by South Korea. Apparently the talks were taking place as recently as this week, when US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley met with Omanis, a regular intermediary between Washington and Tehran.

NBC also reported that the release of the funds would be on the condition that the money will used for purchasing food, reminiscent of ‘food-for-oil’ arrangement during Saddam Hussein’s rule in Iraq in the 1990s.

Iran’s hardliner and anti-Western ruler Ali Khamenei would hardly accept such a condition, which would be humiliating for him and the regime that has already lost a lot of credibility in the eyes of a highly dissatisfied population.

Kanaani who said Iranian citizens arrested in the West for violating US sanctions should be freed, which would be at the heart of a “prisoner exchange” deal.

In fact foreigners held in Tehran are hostages who have been arrested on trumped-up charges and convicted in sham trials.

Kanaani also seemed to demand the release of a former Iranian diplomat convicted on terrorism charges and imprisoned in Belgium. Assadollah Asadi, an Iranian diplomat in Austria was arrested for plotting a 2018 bombing of an opposition rally in Paris and later convicted to a 25-year jail term.

The Biden Administration assumed office pledging to return to the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) with Iran that former President Donald Trump has abandoned in 2018 and imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic. After 18 months of talks with Iran, the diplomatic process came to a dead-end last September, with the US saying that it is no longer focused on reviving the accord.

In the meantime, anti-regime protests and a sharp deterioration in Iran’s economic situation has put the clerical regime under tremendous pressure. A prisoner deal could perhaps ease tensions and lead to more talks, Tehran hopes.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and their French counterpart Catherine Colonna “underscored their concern about Iran’s nuclear escalation and its lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency” (IAEA), calling on Iran to reverse course.

After nuclear negotiations between these Western countries and the Islamic Republic reached a stalemate last year, Iran has continued enriching uranium to high levels and refused to provide satisfactory answers to the IAEA regarding its past nuclear activities, a State Department statement said.

“They also discussed their concerns about the deepening two-way military cooperation between Iran and Russia, and its implications for the security and stability of the region and beyond. “

Iran has been supplying kamikaze drones to Russia that target Ukraine’s infrastructure, and are seen as a threat by European countries.

“The leaders reaffirmed their solidarity with the Iranian people in light of Iran’s continued egregious human rights abuses and agreed to continue to closely coordinate their approach to the regime’s destabilizing activities,” the statement said.

Iran’s lack of cooperation on nuclear issues, military assistance to Russia and its bloody suppression of popular protests have cast a dark shadow over chances of a new agreement with the West.

Germany's foreign minister told reporters in Munich that a nuclear escalation with Iran must be avoided.

"A nuclear escalation must be prevented. That is the focus of our diplomatic efforts.”

The department spokesperson Ned Price was asked on Tuesday to comment on Chinese President XI Jinping’s remark earlier in the day that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved as soon as possible.

In response he said that the United States has engaged with China and other global stakeholders to encourage them to counter Iran’s policies “that destabilize the region and threaten our partners and our allies. Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, its other malign activities and influence, are profoundly destabilizing in the region.”

Ned Price drew attention to Chinese cooperation in pressuring Iran in the early 2010s regarding its nuclear program. Presumably, he said, that’s why “the PRC came together with us the better part of a decade ago by now in the original configuration of the P5+1 to work with us to ultimately negotiate what became known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].”

However, China has been violating US oil export sanctions imposed on Iran on a large scale since the Biden administration came into office. Industry observers believe that Beijing is allowing at least 700,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil to be imported by its refineries, which provides a financial lifeline to the regime in Tehran.

But Price also reiterated the administration’s new policy of not pursuing the nuclear talks unless Tehran meets a number of demands. The spokesman said, “the JCPOA has not been on the agenda for some time. We continue to discount, if not dismiss repeated claims from Iranian officials that we are eager to go back to the JCPOA, we’re calling for a return to JCPOA negotiations. We’re not. We’re sending very clear messages to the Iranian regime. Those messages are: Stop killing your own people, stop sending UAV technology to Russia, and free those wrongfully detained American citizens.”

Critics have repeatedly accused the administration of not sufficiently enforcing sanctions the US imposed in 2018, when former President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. The main loophole is the oil exports to China that can generate more than $20 billion a year for the Islamic Republic.

Price continued the administration’s rhetoric demanding that Beijing should act responsibly. “My point is that the PRC has a role to play in very clearly signaling to Iran that its destabilizing activities, that its brinksmanship is not going to be rewarded. It’s not going to be countenanced. It is not something that the international community is prepared to sit idly by and watch.”

Not only China supports the Islamic Republic by buying its illicit oil shipments, but inviting Raisi at a time when the regime stands accused of gross human rights violations against protesters, is a clear attempt to support the rulers in Tehran.

The Islamic Republic is facing isolation also because of its drone deliveries to Russia and Beijing’s invitation to Raisi partially mollifies that isolation.

Judging from numerous social media posts by Iranian critics of the regime, it appears that their anti-China sentiment has increased because of this latest lifeline thrown to the Islamic Republic.

China will continue to "participate constructively" in talks to resume negotiations on implementing the Iran nuclear agreement soon, Xi told Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in talks in Beijing, according to Chinese state media.

The 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) limited Iran's uranium enrichment program to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in return for lifting international sanctions.

But in 2018 then-US President Donald Trump ditched the deal, saying it had not done enough to curb Tehran's nuclear activities, and reimposed sanctions. China has been violating those sanctions, especially since President Joe Biden got elected, buying the bulk of Iran’s illicit oil exports.

China has criticized Washington for withdrawing from the deal and insists that the United States should make the first move in reviving the pact.

The Biden Administration came to office pledging to return to the accord and began indirect talks with Iran through the other JCPOA participants, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia and China in Vienna. Negotiations lasting 18 months failed to reach an agreement last year.

Following the start of antigovernment protests in Iran and a deadly crackdown by the government, the US announced that it is not focused on the nuclear talks any longer and instead wants to support the rights of Iranian protesters.

In September, the United States imposed new sanctions on companies involved in Iran oil exports, including five based in China. Washington said it would continue enforcing sanctions on Iran's oil and petrochemical sales so long as Tehran continues to accelerate its nuclear program.

Ahead of his three-day visit that started on Tuesday, Raisi wrote an editorial in China's state-controlled People's Daily in which he said both countries believe that unilateralism and "violent" measures such as the imposition of "unjust" sanctions are the main causes of crises and insecurity in the world. This was a clear broadside aimed at the United States.

In the editorial, Raisi described China as an "old friend", and said Iran's efforts to strengthen relations would be unaffected by regional and international situations.

The Iranian regime is hard pressed by a serious economic crisis triggered to a large extent by more than four years of US economic sanctions. It is also more isolated than ever, by the West that strongly objects to its bloody crackdown on protests and supply of drones to Russia.

"No matter how the international and regional situation changes, China will unwaveringly develop friendly cooperation with Iran and promote the continuous development of the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership," Xi said.

China said it is willing to deepen cooperation with Iran in trade, agriculture, industry and infrastructure as well as to import more high-quality Iranian agricultural products.

Xi and Raisi pledged to forge a stronger alliance when they last met in person on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in the Uzbek city of Samarkand in September.

Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation accord in 2021, under which China is to invest billions of dollars in Iran's petroleum sector in exchange for the supply of oil and petrochemical products. However, the document signed is a general wish-list and so far there are few practical plans to expand cooperation. Iranian media has said that Raisi’s China visit pursued the goal of implementing the agreement.

China is already Iran's biggest trading partner.

However, many Iranians look at ties with China suspiciously, and those opposed to the regime see Beijing as a supporter of Iran’s authoritarian rulers.

With reporting by Reuters