Exiled Prince Reza Pahalavi has called on Iranian expats to take part in rallies around the world planned for February 11, asking them to turn the event into “the most inspiring day on the calendar of Iran's revolution.”
Activists have planned mass protests for next Saturday, which coincides with the 44th anniversary of the Islamic Republic, established in February 1979.
“Many of you are preparing to participate in the rallies and marches planned for February 11... With your commitment, this revolution, which began nearly five months ago in the name of Mahsa, and for Women, Life, and Freedom, will continue undeterred in its path to bring an end to the forty-four years of oppression and misery brought upon our Iran by the calamitous events of 1979,” Pahlavi said in his statement shared on social media.
Iran has been the scene of anti-regime protests since mid-September when the 22-year-old Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini was killed in police custody for not wearing “proper hijab”.
“I invite all of you, my compatriots, to make this year’s February 11th the most inspiring day on the calendar of the Iranian revolution and with even greater solidarity and unity, to convert further support and energy to our compatriots inside Iran,” stressed Reza Pahlavi.
He went on to say that “my request to you is that…you offer a single and strong voice in support of the Iranians revolution to the media, societies, and politicians in your country.”
As parliamentary elections next year are on the horizon, the regime will have a hard time to have any sort of vote resembling at least a limited choice, unless it allows some reformists to run for seats.
Some conservatives acknowledge the need for essential reforms in the country's political system, and the core of the regime under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might consider ending the isolation it has imposed on reformists.
Influential conservative politician and a member of the Expediency Council Mohammad Reza Bahonar is one of the conservatives who has pointed out the need for reforms. Bahonar said in a recent interview: "We need a second Republic," meaning that a Constitutional Assembly should be formed to determine new boundaries for the government's authority and the people's rights.
There are indications that the regime might tolerate reform-minded candidates in the upcoming elections. Members of the press have pointed out more frequent public appearances by former President Hassan Rouhani. He recently met with a like-minded press corps of moderate and reformist journalists and media owners. Meanwhile, he has been speaking out about political issues.
In one of his latest political remarks, Rouhani said that "a minority government cannot solve the country's problems." His characterization of Raisi's all conservative administration and the ultraconservative parliament as a "minority government" was reminiscent of his well-known art of tact and dry sense of humor.
There are other reform-minded contestants too for the next election. They are politicians such as Mostafa Tajzadeh who is in jail, and former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi who has been under house arrest since 2011. However, if Khamenei is going to allow reform-minded politicians to run for key positions, he is highly unlikely to settle for anyone known to be more of a reformist than moderate conservative Hassan Rouhani.
On Saturday, February 4, Tajzadeh issued a long statement calling for constitutional reforms, i.e, preserving and beautifying the Islamic Republic.
On the same day, Mousavi also introduced his version of a call for constitutional change, which could be summarized as holding a free and fair referendum on changing the constitution or writing a new one, if necessary, forming a constitutional assembly, holding another referendum on the assembly's ratification, establishing a political order based on rule of law and the people's will. Mousavi’s call was clearly more radical, as he declared that the regime cannot be reformed.
These developments coincide with some conservatives also emphasizing the need for reform moves to boost the regime’s legitimacy.
Conservative politician Bahonar, asking for reforms said that protests have not really ended, and warned that after the protests recede, the regime should not forget about the people's grievances and demands, although “we tend to forget about their complaints as soon as the situation calms down."
He said, as the country gets closer to a parliamentary and an Assembly of Experts election next year, “we need to remember that an election without the presence of our rivals would be meaningless.”
He called the recent protest "a hybrid war against the Islamic Republic" waged by Europe, the United States and international media and political forums. He also acknowledged the role of Iranian expats and celebrities in the protests. Nevertheless, he ignored hundreds of thousands of Iranians who took to the streets for over five months.
Bahonar said that foreigners were prompted by recent low-turnout elections to believe that the Islamic Republic has lost its “social capital.” He added that even those who take part in pro-regime demonstrations have many complaints about the performance of the President and other state officials. He further suggested that dialogue should be maintained between the people and the government and elections should be competitive.
He also pointed out that conservatives' political rivals should not be barred from elections as it was the case in parliamentary and presidential elections in 2020 and 2021. He also criticized the regime for weakening political parties over the years.
Norway-based Iran Human Rights on Friday documented over 20 cases of people being blinded in one eye as a result of fire from the security agents during protests, adding that initial data indicates that young women were disproportionately represented among people who had sustained such wounds.
“Considering the volume of reports about protesters being shot in the head and face by security forces in most Iranian cities, leading to many, including a significant number of young women, being blinded, Iran Human Rights considers the inhumane and unlawful act to have been systematically carried out by the Islamic Republic to crush protests,” the rights group said.
IHR Director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam said, “Exposing the magnitude of the crimes and documenting evidence are crucial steps towards justice that require all citizens' cooperation. Islamic Republic leader Ali Khamenei and the repressive forces under his command must know that they will be held accountable for all their crimes.”
The group claimed that Iran Human Rights researchers have collected and verified information related to many citizens who have lost their sight in one or both eyes as a result of being shot with shotguns or paintball guns in the nationwide protests in the past months. The report also provided a list of cases independently verified by their researchers, noting that the real number is much higher.
The group added that they made their compiled list available to international organizations and the UN fact-finding mission. In their list, they provided photos, names, and other details such as when and where the protesters were targeted in the eye.
The report was released less than a week after the commander of Iranian special police units, Hassan Karami, denied “deliberate” shooting at sensitive parts of the protestors' bodies such as their eyes and heads. He claimed that "the performance of the special unit has shown it is not their intention to deal unprofessionally with people," noting, "I have so much confidence in the ability of the special forces that I have said many times if anyone can prove that even one person was killed due to a mistake by our staff, I will offer them a reward."
While the suppression of the nationwide protests against the Islamic Republic has so far left more than 500 citizens dead and thousands injured, Karami claimed, "The special unit forces have the ability and expertise to restore peace with the least cost and damage."
In November, over 370 ophthalmologists said that a large number of protesters have been taken to medical centers hit by rubber bullets and metal pellets as well as paintball bullets fired at them at close range during the protests, leading to the loss of eyesight in one or both eyes. They warned against the use of shotgun ‘birdshots’ and other projectiles by the security forces that have blinded over 500 protesters since mid-September.
In a November 19 report, The New York Times cited ophthalmologists of three hospitals in the capital Tehran – namely Farabi, Rasoul Akram and Labbafinezhad -- and several doctors in Kordestan province, as saying that about 580 protesters suffered serious eye injuries during the regime’s crackdown.
The full scope of numerous eye injuries has been largely concealed due to the internet blackout in Iran, but medical evidence given to the NYT by doctors, protesters, family members of patients and rights groups revealed that ophthalmology wards in hospitals were overwhelmed with eye injury victims late last year. The range of injuries included mutilated retinas, severed optic nerves and punctured irises.
Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who was a presidential candidate in 2009 and has been under house arrest since 2011, referring to government violence against protesters, said that such events have “demonstrated major truths for the nation.” The rulers of the Islamic Republic are not willing “to take the smallest step to meet the demands of the people.”
But what was noteworthy in Mousavi’s message, dubbed “To save Iran,” is his conclusion that the people have given up hope for reforms.
The leader of the Green Movement, born from large popular protests in 2009, is known as a staunch reformist, or someone who believes the Islamic Republic can be reformed to become a more democratic and tolerant polity.
But Mousavi’s statement seems to reject reform as a viable alternative, urging fundamental change, a new constitution and a constitutional assembly.
Although he does not openly call for regime change, but his demands, if implemented could lead to a new and democratic political system.
Mousavi in his statement has implicitly repeated what exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has been saying for years, and other opposition activists have echoed in the past five months – transition from the Islamic Republic.
“Iran and the Iranians need a fundamental change, that takes its main features from the pure movement of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom.’ Mousavi said. These three words are “the seeds of a bright future, free of oppression, poverty, humiliation and discrimination.”
This represents an important turning point when an opposition figure from inside Iran demands a new constitution, implicitly rejecting the current leadership altogether.
However, Mousavi carries a heavy political baggage that has dented his popularity. When protests began in 2009 against the highly suspicious victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in presidential elections that year, millions of Iranians poured into streets. They saw Mousavi who was the opposing candidate, as their leader, but he refrained from criticizing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who was ultimately responsible for engineering the vote count and the subsequent suppression of protesters. Mousavi came across as someone who did not want to challenge the Islamic Republic.
He also served as prime minister in the 1980s, when the government killed thousands of people in prisons. His critics say that Mousavi has not apologized or explained why he remained silent at the time.
Nevertheless, Mousavi puts forth three demands in his statement. First, a free and untainted referendum about the necessity to change or write a new constitution. Second, in case of a positive vote by the people, to form a constitutional assembly composed of the “real representatives of the nation” through a free and fair election. Third, a second referendum to approve the draft constitution to establish a regime based on rule of law, in conformity with human rights and the will of the people.
Mousavi acknowledged that his three demands require further clarifications, as for example who would implement the changes needed, but he appealed to sense of unity and cooperation “to save Iran”.
Iranians have been hotly debating the need to form an opposition council to manage the protest movement and plan for transition to a new form of government. So far, there are no signs that prominent activists abroad are about to untie and establish a framework of coordination. Inside the country no such move is possible because of repression, but many people seem willing to support a council formed abroad.