Israeli Minister Says Conflict With Iran 'Only A Matter Of Time'

While saying for weeks it would return to talks "soon," Iran has yet to announce a date to resume discussions in Vienna about reviving the pact under which it curbed its nuclear program in return for relief from U.S., EU and UN economic sanctions.

Then-US President Donald Trump abandoned the pact in 2018 and reimposed harsh U.S. sanctions. About a year later, Iran started violating some of the deal's limits on uranium enrichment. Enriching uranium can provide a path to obtain the fissile material for an atomic bomb, an ambition Iran denies.

The diplomatic sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley would meet with the political directors of the British, French and German foreign ministries, a group know as the E3, in Paris on Friday.

One of the sources said he hoped the meeting would provide some clarity on how world powers might act in the coming weeks if Iran continued to "buy time" and delay returning to Vienna. US officials have said time is running out to revive the deal.

Report by Reuters

Rob Malley had earlier been to Qatar in a tour conferring with Arab Gulf states. The Saudi news agency SPA reported the envoy met with Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, Saudi foreign minister, in Riyadh on Wednesday to discuss both the nuclear talks and "joint action to stop Iranian support for terrorist militias."

In an interview October 13 Malley reiterated that the US wanted to revive the 2015 deal − the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action − in its original form rather than attach new conditions over regional defense and security.

Saudi Arabia, which opposed the JCPOA and backed former president Donald Trump in leaving the deal in 2018, wants the US to introduce new issues, including Iran’s missile program and links with regional allies. Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed opposing sides in Syria and Yemen, and Riyadh has never reconciled itself to Iran’s increased influence in Iraq since the US-led 2003 invasion topped Saddam Hussein.

Saudi Arabia has tempered its approach since US president Joe Biden took office in January committed to restoring the JCPOA and has held a series of exploratory talks with Iran in Baghdad designed to explore easing tensions.

But with JCPOA talks in Vienna suspended since June, first for Iran’s presidential election and then the transition, and with the difficulties the talks had faced in reaching agreement, Saudi Arabia and the US may be mulling alternatives should the talks fail.

Malley has said Washington is ready to consider "all options," while Prince Faisal last week warned of a "dangerous" acceleration in Iran's nuclear program.

The Vienna talks struggled to agree which US sanctions − including the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions levied by Trump in 2018 − violate the JCPOA and exactly how Iran should bring back within JCPOA limits its nuclear program, which it has expanded quantitatively and qualitatively since 2019.

Analysts’ chatter around the talks has suggested that the US might look to include Iran’s regional role in talks, or at least seek Tehran’s commitment to ‘follow-on’ talks. There have also been reports that Tehran wants concrete guarantees that the US would not again walk away from an agreement it first signed and then voted for in the United Nations Security Council.

A day after meeting Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Grossi was invited to the Senate by Chairman of the Committee Sen. Bob Menedez, where around a dozen Senators had an opportunity to discuss Iran’s lack of full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with director general Grossi.

Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) issued a statement after the meeting saying, “Iran continues to steadily advance its nuclear program, while violating its international obligations and preventing the IAEA from fulfilling its monitoring responsibilities. Its failure to provide credible answers to the IAEA’s questions regarding its undeclared nuclear sites is unacceptable. Today, I thanked Director General Grossi for his strong leadership in pursuing the IAEA’s investigation into these sites, and urged him to continue to press Iran until it provides all required information.”

Republicans who have been sceptical of the Biden Administration’s diplomatic approach to Iran and have repeatedly urged not to make concessions to Tehran see the lack of cooperation with IAEA as proof that the Islamic Republic cannot be trusted.

In the September IAEA Board of Governors meeting, Grossi had already issued a report accusing Iran of lack of cooperation both in accounting for its past nuclear activities and also in current monitoring efforts by UN’s nuclear watchdog. However, the United States and its European allied known as E3 decided not to pursue a resolution to condemn Iran.

Senator Risch in his statement demanded a tougher approach in the next board meeting. “I also stressed the importance of taking strong action in advance of the November Board of Governors meeting, and to prepare to censure and refer Iran. President Biden should finally recognize that Iran is not interested in any agreement that would protect the interests of the United States and our allies. The…legitimacy of the IAEA depends on strong U.S. leadership in seeking accountability for Iran’s nuclear activities, and in pressuring Iran to fulfil its obligations to the international community.”

In a tweet the Senator also thanked Grossi for his “leadership in IAEA’s investigation” and the need “to hold Iran accountable”.

On Monday, Grossi in an interview with the Financial Times stressed that he needs to visit Iran again and have an urgent meeting “at the political level”, meaning with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. In his previous trip in September Grossi met with Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami, who is also vice president to Ebrahim Raisi.

Grossi told the Financial Times that a temporary arrangement for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor Iran’s nuclear sites was no longer “intact.” Iran restricted IAEA’s monitoring in February after its parliament passed a law demanding the lifting of US sanctions or reduced Iranian cooperation.

IAEA access in Iran is currently under a temporary arrangement reached September 12, but Grossi has expressed concern at Iran’s decision September 16 not to allow the changing of memory cards of monitoring cameras at the Tesa Karaj site, where Iran makes centrifuges used for enriching uranium.

Rafael Mariano Grossi told the Financial Times Monday during a trip to Washington that a temporary arrangement for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor Iran’s nuclear sites was no longer “intact.”

Grossi told the newspaper he wanted an urgent meeting − “contact at the political level” − with Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to discuss surveillance arrangements. This reiterated Grossi’s request aired on the BBC Hardtalk program broadcast September 29 to meet with Amir-Abdollahian or President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi).

Cameras at Karaj?

Agency access in Iran is currently under a temporary arrangement reached September 12, but Grossi has expressed concern at Iran’s decision September 16 not to allow the changing of camera memory cards at the Tesa Karaj site, where Iran makes centrifuges used for enriching uranium. Iran says it is carrying out security investigation at the site following a June attack widely blamed on Israel.

The September 12 agreement extended the February arrangement Grossi reached after Iran reduced IAEA access to the basic level required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.The September agreement allowed the agency to replace camera memory cards, enabling it potentially to later “reconstruct” activities in Iran’s nuclear program.

But this in turn would require a wider agreement over restoring Tehran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which both limited Tehran’s nuclear activities and allowed the IAEA greater inspection access.

Raisi said Monday that Iran was serious about continuing talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the JCPOA but he gave no date for their resumption. There are increasing concerns in Europe and the United States that Tehran is gaining nuclear experience and perhaps trying to strengthen its negotiating position.

As Grossi met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken Monday, State Department spokesman Ned Price said the US did not see any need for an “intermediate” meeting between Iran and three European powers in Brussels, as was agreed by European Union foreign policy chief Enrique Mora in Tehran September 14.

Iran using Europe?

Some analysts suggest Tehran may see the three European JCPOA signatories – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the ‘E3’ – as a means to exert pressure on the US. Washington, which left the JCPOA in 2018, has taken part indirectly in the Vienna process, which are formally between the E3, Iran, China and Russia.

The Vienna talks, which began in April with the new US administration of President Joe Biden expressing a desire to revive the JCPOA, struggled to agree which US sanctions violate the agreement and exactly how the expanded and improved Iran nuclear program should be returned to JCPOA limits.

Grossi stressed to Hardtalk last month the link between inspections and the Vienna efforts to restore the JCPOA. “We are the guarantors…of whatever is agreed,” he said, noting that further limiting access “could mean we would start losing ground and start losing the capability to know exactly what is happening to the last detail…”

In his FT interview, Grossi said the current inspection arrangement was “seriously affected” and “not intact” while “not valueless either.” The IAEA board has a quarterly meeting in November, where pressure on Iran may build.

Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz, appearing before a parliamentary committee, cited Tuesday Iran’s nuclear program as justifying an increased defense budget. Israel’s channel 12 television reported Monday that $1.5 billion would be allocated for weapons to confront Iran. Israel is keen to procure US ‘bunker-buster’ bombs.

Gantz said the most significant threat Israel faces is Iran and its nuclear program, adding the armed forces need the means to confront the danger.

“We see that Iran is advancing toward the level of enrichment that would allow it, when it wished, to become a threshold state — and we are making every effort to prevent that. We will invest in our offensive and defensive capabilities, improve our technological superiority, and accelerate our efforts to ensure that — even though Iran is foremost a global and regional challenge — Israel will always have the ability to defend its citizens with its own forces,” The Times of Israel quoted him as saying.

Israel’s channel 12 reported Monday that a budget of roughly $1.5 million is being allocated to procure the necessary weapons to confront Iran if it refuses to return to nuclear talks with Western powers.

Gantz also said that a higher budget is needed for a two-front war, a possible reference to a conflict with Palestinian groups in Gaza or with the Lebanese Hezbollah, both backed by Tehran.