Multiple explosions heard in Tehran

An Israeli strike against Iran could come as soon as Sunday unless Tehran agrees to halt production of fissile material that can be used to make an atomic bomb, The Wall Street Journal reported citing a senior Israeli official.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the possibility of strikes in his phone conversation with President Donald Trump on Monday, the report added.

"We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue! My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran," US President Donald Trump said in post on Truth Social.

"They could be a Great Country, but they first must completely give up hopes of obtaining a Nuclear Weapon."

"One of the things that is perhaps motivating Israel is the opportunity, the vulnerability of Iran. This is the time, in their own mind, to go after that. Certainly, Israel has very advanced capabilities, and they have the ability to do a lot of damage," former US Central Command chief General Joseph Votel said on Thursday.

"I think the real question will be whether this is kind of a limited attack or there's designed to again degrade further, or whether there's really focused on trying to remove the nuclear capability," he told Fox News in an interview.

"I'm not sure Israel has everything at their disposal without assistance from the United States to actually do the latter there."

According to the ministry’s confidential annual report obtained by Iran International, diesel consumption in March 2025—the final month of the Iranian calendar year—hit a record 146 million liters per day, exceeding national production by 30 million liters.

The surge was largely driven by a severe and ongoing shortage of natural gas, which forced power plants and heavy industry to burn more diesel and fuel oil (mazut) to meet energy demands.

Diesel use rose 16% year-on-year in March, while production grew by just 1%. Daily mazut consumption also climbed 30%.

Despite holding the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, Iran has faced persistent shortages since last year, especially during the winter months. The government’s failure to expand gas output has pushed annual mazut consumption up.

In total, Iran consumed 57 billion liters of mazut and diesel in the last year—roughly 1.28 million barrels per day. More than a third was used for power generation while the rest was absorbed by the industrial and transportation sectors.

Barter deals and toxic additives

Gasoline consumption also rose by almost 8% in a year.

To make up the shortfall, the government imported nearly 5 billion liters of gasoline and diesel over the past year, doubling the volume of fuel imports compared to the year before.

With cash and resources constrained by sanctions, Iran has leaned heavily on barter to meet fuel demand—trading part of its mazut exports for gasoline and diesel, particularly with the United Arab Emirates.

The report notes that of the 290,000 barrels per day of mazut exported last year, 40% was bartered for refined fuel, while the rest was sold to the UAE, China and other Asian buyers.

The report also sheds light on gasoline quality, revealing that Iran does not produce any gasoline that fully meets international standards.

Around 80% fails to comply with Euro 4 or Euro 5 benchmarks. The rest, labeled as “Euro gasoline,” contains the petrochemical additive MTBE (methyl tert-butyl ether), which is banned in many countries due to environmental and health risks.

Public spin versus internal figures

Iran continues to blend 2 million liters of MTBE into its gasoline daily.

Refinery output rose by 4.5% to 101 million liters per day, but the government raised that to 121 million by adding 20 million liters of MTBE and other chemical additives—a fourfold increase in additive use in recent years.

In March, Mohammad Sadegh Azimifar, CEO of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, said diesel output had risen by the equivalent of a 300,000-barrel-per-day refinery and that fuel production had increased by 11% overall.

However, the Oil Ministry’s internal report contradicts these statements, showing actual growth was closer to one-third of what Azimifar posited.

The discrepancy reflects a broader pattern of officials overstating achievements to project control despite mounting evidence that Iran’s energy crisis is worsening.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff privately told Republican Senators last week that Iran could hit Israel with a mass casualty attack if the Jewish State strikes its nuclear sites, Axios reported citing a US official and a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

In a briefing last Thursday with the lawmakers, Witkoff said an Israeli military intervention was possible if US-Iran nuclear talks failed.

Witkoff cited Israel's ballistic missile capabilities, Axios reported, and said Israeli air defenses might be overwhelmed by an attack involving hundreds of missiles which could cause massive casualties and damage.