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Iran has indicated a willingness to open its markets to American investors if a nuclear deal is reached, but some experts argue that expecting not only US investment but any significant foreign investment is highly unrealistic.
“Speaking of a trillion-dollar investment from the United States is nothing but a dream and fantasy,” said Ferial Mostofi, head of the Investment Services Center at the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, in an interview with Shargh daily. “How can we expect foreign investors to come to Iran when domestic investors move their capital out of the country?”
In its article titled “Foreign Investment: Mirage or Reality?”, Shargh referred to a claim circulating in Iranian circles that Tehran is seeking an agreement with the United States to guarantee $1 trillion in US investment over twenty years. “This claim means the United States would have to invest $50 billion in Iran annually.”
Shargh also recalled past official claims that China had pledged $400 billion in investments in Iran’s oil, gas, petrochemical, and transport sectors, while Russia’s Gazprom was expected to invest $40 billion in Iran’s gas industry. The article pointed out that none of those promised investments ever materialized.
“[A trillion-dollar US investment] is exactly like the much-discussed $400 billion investment from China [over twenty-five years],” the article said, arguing that China has not—and likely will not—invest such a large sum in Iran due to several factors, including inadequate hard infrastructure in transportation and energy, lack of transparency, and political risks.
Iran is in urgent need of foreign investment to revitalize its aging oil and gas infrastructure and to support other key sectors, including its large but struggling automotive industry.
According to the 2024 report of the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Iran attracted $1.4 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2023. The meager figures stood at $1.5 billion in 2022 and $1.4 billion in 2021. The highest recorded FDI level was over $5 billion in 2017, following the implementation of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal which lifted UN economic sanctions against Iran.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said recently that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has no objection to American investment in Iran. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, writing in a Washington Post op-ed, put the onus on Washington to allow American companies to access what he described as a “trillion-dollar opportunity” in Iran. Neither Pezeshkian nor Araghchi provided specific details.
The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Javan newspaper appeared to support the idea of American investment in Iran in an article it published one day before the first round of Tehran-Washington talks in Muscat on April 8. “It is possible that we accept that some American companies have the opportunity to invest or sell their products, if Iran's economic interests are met. If sanctions are lifted, these companies will be eager to invest, and Iran will be unlikely to object.”
However, any American investment in Iran would require the removal of at least some of the primary US sanctions, many of which predate the nuclear-related sanctions.
While Khamenei has not officially banned American or other foreign investment, he has consistently advocated for stronger economic ties with Eastern countries such as Russia and China, expressing deep mistrust toward the West.
Despite publicly distancing himself from economic policymaking, Khamenei is widely believed to exert substantial control over Iran’s economy through political influence, economic entities under his authority, and the IRGC’s involvement. In one notable instance, he banned imports of South Korean electronics brands LG and Samsung in August 2021 to pressure Seoul over Iran's frozen funds.
Iran needs $200-250 billion dollars in investments to bring stability to its oil and gas sectors, an official in the chamber of commerce said, reiterating previous comments by the oil minister.
Arash Najafi, head of the energy commission at Iran’s Chamber of Commerce told local media, "In recent years, due to sanctions, we have been deprived or had limited access to many of the world’s latest technologies. At present, we need modern technology, up-to-date equipment, and serious investment to tap into the country’s underground resources, increase gas reservoir pressure, and revive oil fields."
While Iran struggles to increase oil production, its gas output is steadily declining due to loss of pressure in its main South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. Only multinational Western energy companies have the technology to install very large gas platforms to boost production.
"We need more than $200 to $250 billion in investment to bring the country’s oil and gas sector to a stable state. Investment is essential for energy transmission to refineries and petrochemical plants, as well as for infrastructure and related facilities,” Najafi added.
Iran's oil minister Javad Owji has also said in the past that Iran needs a minimum of $200 billion investment in its energy sector.
Tehran and Washington are currently negotiating over Iran’s nuclear program and other issues with the hope of reaching an agreement that can gradually reduce or eliminate tough US sanctions. Only then Iran can freely export oil and receive the proceeds through normal banking channels. Currently 95% of shipments go to China and it is not clear how much cash Tehran receives.
Najafi expressed hope that if relations improve with the US Iran can benefit in the energy sector. "The United States is currently a leader in the oil sector, and if we engage in economic cooperation with the US and establish an economic corridor between the two countries, we could benefit not only from its technologies but also from its investment to help develop our oil and gas fields.”
He added that Iran could also attract capital from multinational companies and move toward a stable position in the oil and gas sector.
A senior Iranian nuclear official said on Friday that a deputy to the head of the UN nuclear watchdog will visit Tehran in the coming two weeks to continue high-level technical talks.
Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said the discussions aim to resolve recurring issues in IAEA reports that, according to Tehran, have contributed to mounting political pressure rather than advancing technical cooperation.
“This visit is part of ongoing engagement with the agency and follows recent talks in Tehran,” Kamalvandi said on state television.
He added that Iranian officials raised objections to recent public remarks by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, including his comments on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Kamalvandi said Iran remains committed to its safeguards obligations and that no limits exist under those terms regarding enrichment levels.
The visit comes after Grossi’s own trip to Iran, during which he met with top officials and agreed to intensify technical dialogue.
US Secretary of State said on Friday that Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability and urged European nations to decide soon on reimposing sanctions under the snapback mechanism.
“Well for the Europeans they have an important decision to make very soon on the snapback of sanctions because Iran is clearly out of compliance with the current deal,” Rubio said.
“As you saw, the IAEA was in Tehran yesterday, uh, issued public statements saying Iran is as close as it's ever been to nuclear weapons,” he added.
Rubio said President Donald Trump “made clear Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. That is not going to happen.”
He said Washington prefers a diplomatic solution. “We're hoping that talks continue and that they're fruitful and that they can lead to something. We would all prefer a peaceful resolution and a lasting one.”
He added that any agreement must prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon not just now but long-term, and “not just for 10 years with some sort of sunset provision or the like.”
Rubio said the E3 – Britain, France, and Germany – would soon receive a new IAEA report showing Iran is “dangerously close to a weapon — closer than they've ever been,” and will need to decide whether to reimpose sanctions.
“If Iran is out of compliance, they have to reimpose the sanctions,” he said. “That's going to be a factor in all this.”
Iran has accumulated nearly 300 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium in violation of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. Germany, France and the United Kingdom are also signatories of the JCPOA. The final sunset clause of the agreement is approaching in October and the three European countries can use their prerogative to bring back UN sanctions against Iran that the deal suspended ten years ago.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday that Tehran's military strength enabled it to confidently seek peace in the region, a day before talks with arch-foe the United States were due to resume.
“With the army behind us, we can express our positions on peace, stability, and regional cooperation from a position of strength,” Pezeshkian said during a ceremony marking Army Day.
He added that the armed forces have helped position Iran as a regional power and said the country now produces its own military equipment. “We build what we need on land, in the air, and at sea,” he said.
Pezeshkian praised the army’s role in responding to national crises and described it as a reliable force alongside the government and people.
The Iranian army, reliant on conscription, is equipped mainly with older generation weapons, many produced during the Soviet Union.
His comments came days after the first round of talks between Iranian and US officials in Oman. Following the talks, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told military commanders that Iran’s armed forces must maintain maximum readiness to counter external threats. He described the military as the country’s shield and accused foreign powers of trying to weaken public trust in it.
President Donald Trump has threatened strikes if Iran fails to come to an agreement with the United States to curtail or dismantle its nuclear program.
“Armies that lack conviction, courage, and trust in their cause have collapsed, no matter how heavily equipped they were,” Khamenei said.
Khamenei also called for upgrades in weapons, logistics, and personnel support, alongside a continued focus on ideological commitment. Senior military officials echoed the message, saying Iran’s armed forces remain fully prepared and supported by the public.
